General Observations on the Current Status of the Hobby (1 Viewer)

[Arnhemjim]

Before I started this missive I wanted to be sure I knew how to correctly spell “curmudgeon”. For openers my recent observation regarding the toy soldier market is that there is by far and away much more money than brains out there, even given this period of recession bordering on depression. No place is this more true than on e-Bay. This phenomenon has distorted the entire market. It is bad enough that the overall economy has tanked, combined with the significant downward trend of the value of vintage (1893-1966) W. Britains, which at least to me serve as a benchmark on the hobby. Personally I have tried within my own limited knowledge and capability to stabilize and educate the buyer population on e-Bay with a guide as to the collection of W. Britains toy soldiers. Please see URLs: http://reviews.ebay.com/Collecting-W-Britains-Toy-Soldiers_W0QQugidZ10000000004502679 and http://reviews.ebay.com/Collecting-W-Britains-Toy-Soldiers-Part-II_W0QQugidZ10000000013155134 . Even though both sites are reasonably popular, judging from the number of hits (>10,500 on one) and feedback on how helpful they are, it would still appear that there are a lot of people that continue to prove P.T. Barnum to be absolutely right.

Another salient observation on e-Bay is that sellers in the United States still more frequently place sets, either boxed or unboxed, up for auction, than their British cousins. One apparent possible reason being that there are a greater number of viable auction houses dedicated to toy soldiers in the United Kingdom than there are in the United States. This is somewhat off-set by the fact that the “sets” which are offered, may or may not be correct in terms of both composition/content, as well as fundamentally incorrect identification, to say nothing of totally inaccurate grading of condition.

Then on this very forum I have consistently seen more concern expressed over esthetics of appearance, even color and style of boxes, than accuracy of the figures or vehicles portrayed. Albeit for those of you who are rivet counters, I stand in awe and respect of your obvious expertise. You can refer to several of my previous posts regarding this subject.

Another fundamental change that has occurred in the hobby, which in many respects is positive, and has taken place with the emergence of matte figures predominating over gloss, is the display of collections in extensively detailed dioramas, versus the more traditional massed formations. The emergence of King & Country has certainly appeared to have accelerated this transition. Certainly one primary consideration in this area, is the limitation of display space available to the individual collector.

Hopefully these musings will precipitate some interesting responses from other members of the forum.

 

[Louis Badolato]

I don't want to get mixed up in a discussion about there being "more money than brains" in the hobby, but I do have a take on the drop in value of classic Britains hollowcast stuff.

What gets a lot of adults into this hobby is reminiscing about the toys they played with in their youth. From 1950 until around 1990 the adults had, for the most part, played with Britains and the other classic toy soldier companies, and that sustained the collectibility of Britains, etc.

Sadly, most of the collectors who can actually remember playing with hollowcast Britains in their youth are now either retired or deceased. When I first went to the OTSN in Chicago, there was a lot of action in the room trading for classic britains. The last four or five years, however, the action has focused on the present production companies who are making larger, more realistic matt figures, such as K&C, Figarti, Honour Bound, modern Britains, John Jenkins Designs, Aeroart St. Petersburg and First Legion. The few rooms focusing on Britains hollowcast see, comparatively, very little traffic.

The price of a collectible relates in large part to the demand for it compared to its availability. While classic Britains remains very scarce, there is almost no demand for it among collectors under the age of 70. On the other hand, companies like K&C, which started out almost as a cottage industry, producing on average less than 500 of each set of figures, and less than 50 of each armored vehicle or aircraft, which were originally hand made from wood, resin and metal, have gone crazy, now that they have become bigger companies with a far larger following. The fact that K&C now produces around 2,000 of each regular production set, and they often sell out and are retired within months, indicates that there are at least 2,000 K&C collectors. If some of these 2000 newer K&C collectors want to obtain a K&C wood and metal Tiger Tank (TK01), of which 50 or less were produced in the 1990's, the demand they create (especially with worldwide access to make offers via ebay) will far exceed the extremely limited supply, and the prices will go crazy. One of these Tigers recently sold on ebay for more than $2,200, while another was traded for one of the $1800 Figarti "Shock and Awe" LCT's.

Other companies, like Figarti, have chosen to manufacture demand, by creating really high quality vehicles in extremely limited numbers (no more than 100) which tend to quickly sell out, creating an instant secondary market, particularly as they tend to produce vehicles collectors have been clamoring for, such as a Firefly Sherman, or an 8th Army Desert Sherman.

The combination of worldwide bidding with a growing collector base and extremely limited production of certain collectibles has generated some very high prices in the secondary market. That, more than an absence of brains, explains the high prices certain modern products generate in the secondary market.

The shrinking collector base for the classic hollowcast figures due to the advanced age of these collectors, combined with the fact that many of these collectors are retired and living on fixed incomes explains the drop in prices for these rare items. At least that's the way I see it.

 

[bromhead]

Agreed for the most part on early britains,,tho i believe economics play a part,,Vintage Ferraris going for a million plus 15 years ago now trade at 100k,drug money has left a lot of the market also .There also is just about no mention of dimestore figures and items which declined before old Britains,,certainly here for instance

 

[Arnhemjim]

Gentlemen,
My observations on vintage Briains sales on e-Bay were predicated on a comparison of the prices realized versus recent year’s results at Vectis Toy Auctions and Phillip’s in the United Kingdom and The Old Toy Soldier Auctions in the United States. Offerings at the latter auction houses have been, as a rule, in better condition for an identical set/gun/vehicle (boxed/unboxed), and even with the buyer’s premium, sold for less than prices often realized on e-Bay. You can certainly argue that e-Bay is exposed to a larger population, including many new and inexperienced collectors, however to the veteran collector the other auction houses are equally well known. I certainly will admit that I have not done a detailed in-depth analysis of comparative prices, and it very well may be that “anomalies” have made a more lasting impression than the norm. I totally concur with your *****sment regarding that portion of the collecting population who are aging and on a fixed income. I feel very grateful that I was able to collect what i did, when I did it. My only regret is a short detour from Britains to Greenwood & Ball figures during the mid to late sixties, at least from an investment perspective, and what would have been a more complete Britains collection. With a primary long-term interest (~ 40 years), as a amateur military historian, in the British 1st Airborne Division at Arnhem, needless to say I have been an avid King & Country collector of both the initial Arnhem '44 series and the newer Market Garden Series.

 

[damian]

I would agree with Louis.
Paradoxically the reason I never got any Old Britains when UI was starting out 15 years ago was the price. For 300 quid I could get a set of old WB or a whole bunch of new Old Toy Soldiers from K and C, WB or Trophy.
So I chose to go for the New Manufacturers.

 

[thebritfarmer]

Well all I have to say on this subject is I am way below 70's years old and love collecting vintage Britains. If anyone can supply me figures that are declining in price I say bring them on as I haven't been able to find any on eBay or any other sites/dealers that I frequent.

 

[Arnhemjim]

Somehow I erroneously conveyed that Britains have universally declined in price. What I intended to say that there has been a decline in the 'relatively' common sets, but certainly not in the scarce to rare categories, particularly bands in correct, complete and good condition. What has occurred is that for the more common sets appearing on e-Bay, bidders have paid significantly more in recent times than bidders at the other auctions for comparable, or better, identical sets.

 

[Gideon]

I really think your "more money than brains" comment should be restated. I've seen common Britains which were in the Forbes collection go for obscene amounts simply because they were in the Forbes collection, for example. They are painted figures not individual paintings on canvas, you know?

Also, price drop in early Britains was to be expected - poor economy or not. Cast iron toys from the 1920's and 30's USED to sell for much more than they do now simply because the primary collectors of that particular type of toy have aged out or passed away. That happens frequently - it also happened with dimestore lead figures, Dinky and Corgi diecast and others. Right now, plastics from Marx, MPC and some other producers bring fabulous prices as there is still a good pool of collectors in that area.

Courtenay, Vertunni, Baldet, Ping and others in the super rare category figures are going for a lot less - when you can find them.

Sure, there's an economic shift taking place but there are other factors weighing in too.

These more "mass produced" figures dominating the market today are the collectors item of this generation of collector. It will see a day where its value plummets and interest is lost.

When you think about any given hobby, interest is broad but its not very deep. You kind of have to think in terms of sharks teeth - as teeth are lost new ones rotate in. Strange comparison, I know, but it's relevant.

My dad is 67 and he is part of that generation who had a lot of interest in older Britains and the other makers I've identified. Still, most of the people who came into our shop with the real "hardcore" knowledge and interest were older than him by quite a bit. Just how many people are stepping in to the fill gaps left? Younger generations don't have the exposure to this type of stuff and gravitate to other things.

There will always be a market for these kinds of things but there's going to continue to be a lot of ebbs and tides. Dare I say, I am one of the younger on this board for sure and I'm 35.