More stable or even falling prices coming? (1 Viewer)

[Rutledge]

There have been lots of complaints on this Forum (and elsewhere, presumably) about the rising costs of TS. No doubt TS retail prices have increased steadily over the years. Along with them so has quality, one could argue. But that relationship may be about to change.

We all know about the falling price of oil, 40% of its 2014 highs (in the US). It takes time but the cost savings from such will eventually reverberate all through the supply chain.

There is massive overproduction capacity in China. In November, falling for the 33rd straight month were China's Factory Gate, or Producer Prices. This is industrial deflation, the result of severe overcapacity, lower commodity prices and no pricing power.

In the US we are enjoying a robust strengthening in the value of the dollar relative to just about every other currency -- i.e., JYen, Euro, R Ruble, Loonie...

TS wise, there is clearly no dearth of product, with every manufacturer regularly churning out new items.

I certainly do not have a crystal ball but forces do seem to be aligning for downward pressure on prices.

 

[Poppo]

I also thought what you think, and what you say is true, but, if I am not wrong, some manufacturer admitted that some years ago they made a figure in 1000, 1500 pieces, and now only 200, 250. I have a feeling that the number of sold items is lower and lower every year and the manufacturers\retailers want to get the same income ( or possibly more) as during the past" golden years"; that' s why, in my opinion, the prices will not decrease even if the general production and energy costs make all the other products cheaper.The makers probably count on an small " hard core" number of collectors ready to pay any price for a figure, also for those who don' t buy anymore.:salute::

 

[Rutledge]

I also thought what you think, and what you say is true, but, if I am not wrong, some manufacturer admitted that some years ago they made a figure in 1000, 1500 pieces, and now only 200, 250. I have a feeling that the number of sold items is lower and lower every year and the manufacturers\retailers want to get the same income ( or possibly more) as during the past" golden years"; that' s why, in my opinion, the prices will not decrease even if the general production and energy costs make all the other products cheaper.The makers probably count on an small " hard core" number of collectors ready to pay any price for a figure, also for those who don' t buy anymore.:salute::

You very well could be correct. It's hard to imagine prices falling. But it may soon happen with Russian made figures. The ruble is crashing! I imagine plenty of Russians will be eager together their hands on some dollars, even if fewer than before.

True, Manuf are making smaller runs. That naturally removes some supply. But gosh there are a lot of companies producing a lot of items. At some point you run into saturation. Between falling materials prices, overcapacity and weakening currencies (relative to dollar), I would not be surprised if price hikes ceased for a while, at least.

But I have no idea, purely speculating.

 

[trooper]

I also thought what you think, and what you say is true, but, if I am not wrong, some manufacturer admitted that some years ago they made a figure in 1000, 1500 pieces, and now only 200, 250. I have a feeling that the number of sold items is lower and lower every year and the manufacturers\retailers want to get the same income ( or possibly more) as during the past" golden years"; that' s why, in my opinion, the prices will not decrease even if the general production and energy costs make all the other products cheaper.The makers probably count on an small " hard core" number of collectors ready to pay any price for a figure, also for those who don' t buy anymore.:salute::

The reason some makers produce figures in those numbers is because they are reliant on China for their production in the mistaken belief that this is cheaper. Naturally the Chinese are not going to make items in ones and twos so insist on minimum quantities of each which all adds to the transport costs nullifying, at least in part, the advantage gained by using sweated labour. The cottage industry only has to make the master and mould and then can produce to order as they have complete control over the whole process. This is why their prices are significantly lower than the "major" makers, and also why they never have to "retire" items. Trooper

 

[johnnybach]

The reason some makers produce figures in those numbers is because they are reliant on China for their production in the mistaken belief that this is cheaper. Naturally the Chinese are not going to make items in ones and twos so insist on minimum quantities of each which all adds to the transport costs nullifying, at least in part, the advantage gained by using sweated labour. The cottage industry only has to make the master and mould and then can produce to order as they have complete control over the whole process. This is why their prices are significantly lower than the "major" makers, and also why they never have to "retire" items. Trooper

Totally agree with you , old chum. Cottage Industries also frequently make their figures available as either painted ( in either Matte or Gloss) - and at least SOME of them ( though not all) as unpainted castings - usually at around roughly half the price of their painted versions - (or even cheaper for some makers).

The resulting figures, in my opinion, are just as good - if not better than some of the market leaders products - though I guess, this is just a matter of taste and what the owner likes. jb

 

[Rutledge]

The reason some makers produce figures in those numbers is because they are reliant on China for their production in the mistaken belief that this is cheaper. Naturally the Chinese are not going to make items in ones and twos so insist on minimum quantities of each which all adds to the transport costs nullifying, at least in part, the advantage gained by using sweated labour. The cottage industry only has to make the master and mould and then can produce to order as they have complete control over the whole process. This is why their prices are significantly lower than the "major" makers, and also why they never have to "retire" items. Trooper

This is an interesting postulation but I find it dubious. Assembly line manufacturing long ago proved itself more efficient than mom and pop operations. Making things in larger quantities offers the ability to spread fixed costs out over more items, thus lowering unit cost.

I doubt a cottage industry could ramp up or ramp down production, efficiently and in a timely manner, based on sporadic and unpredictable order (lots of "one-offs) streams. Unless maybe folks were ok with waiting weeks or months or longer, for their items to arrive. Producing a dealer inventory, while doing ones best to estimate demand volume, some of which is inevitably excess, has proven the best way products can be delivered in a timely manner to end consumer while keeping costs down.

 

[trooper]

This is an interesting postulation but I find it dubious. Assembly line manufacturing long ago proved itself more efficient than mom and pop operations. Making things in larger quantities offers the ability to spread fixed costs out over more items, thus lowering unit cost.

I doubt a cottage industry could ramp up or ramp down production, efficiently and in a timely manner, based on sporadic and unpredictable order (lots of "one-offs) streams. Unless maybe folks were ok with waiting weeks or months or longer, for their items to arrive. Producing a dealer inventory, while doing ones best to estimate demand volume, some of which is inevitably excess, has proven the best way products can be delivered in a timely manner to end consumer while keeping costs down.

Cottage industries usually produce a set number of each figure,maybe 15 or 20, which are kept in stock and topped up after sales. There is no efficient way of predicting sales of anything so the cost is minimised by not trying to produce masses of items with excessive raw material costs and valuable shelf space wasted. Assembly line production is fine for household items or cars but totally inefficient for small scale operations. Making things in larger quantities means larger costs in raw materials, a VERY expensive exercise which can only result in increased prices. The majority of makers give a delivery date and customers are happy with that. Another advantage of the smaller operation is total control and not having to rely on a production process halfway round the world. As a case in point when the SAS went into the Iranian embassy in London many years ago our company (AQM) made a master figure, moulded and cast it, and assembled and painted an example all within 48 hours working non stop. In my 54 years experience in this industry I have found the smaller companies have many advantages over mass production and a look at their prices should prove rewarding. Trooper

 

[johnnybach]

Cottage industries usually produce a set number of each figure,maybe 15 or 20, which are kept in stock and topped up after sales. There is no efficient way of predicting sales of anything so the cost is minimised by not trying to produce masses of items with excessive raw material costs and valuable shelf space wasted. Assembly line production is fine for household items or cars but totally inefficient for small scale operations. Making things in larger quantities means larger costs in raw materials, a VERY expensive exercise which can only result in increased prices. The majority of makers give a delivery date and customers are happy with that. Another advantage of the smaller operation is total control and not having to rely on a production process halfway round the world. As a case in point when the SAS went into the Iranian embassy in London many years ago our company (AQM) made a master figure, moulded and cast it, and assembled and painted an example all within 48 hours working non stop. In my 54 years experience in this industry I have found the smaller companies have many advantages over mass production and a look at their prices should prove rewarding. Trooper

Again - I agree with everything said by Trooper.

As a regular customer of many of our British smaller Toy Soldier Companies ( which we are particularly blessed with in the UK), I have had a very good relationship with mostly the same people for several years. Many have become firm friends of mine - along the way - and the personal service I get has allowed me to understand how most of them work - which is exactly how Trooper has described.

I realise that as a painter of (mainly) castings from such companies - I'm not exactly a mainstream customer buying finished figures. However, the prices for these ( which is the focus of the title of this thread), is clearly available on many of their web-sites (where they have one) or from catalogues - which are usually available from those who don't have a web-site.

Another benefit that I frequently take advantage of - is that many "Cottagers" will also supply different parts and extras - which I sometimes like to use to modify - or otherwise change castings - to make up different poses from basic parts. In effect - I get a very personal service - providing me sometimes with virtually bespoke figures.

So...............for me, at least, I get EXACTLY what I want - at very reasonable prices ( when compared to some of the market leaders in finished Toy Soldier Companies). In fact, I can frequently obtain 4-6 figures as unpainted castings - when compared to the price of just ONE painted example from some of the mainstream market leader guys. And this is from PERSONAL EXPERIENCE - not any hypothetical guesses - it's a fact.

I sometimes do purchase old, worn or broken painted figures on the secondary market - as it's easy to find examples of these in many places ( e-bay, street markets, or toy fairs - for example), which I can then indulge another branch of my repair/repainting hobby - but hardly ever a brand-new figure from one of the finished TS manufacturers. They are just too expensive for me. If they are supposed to be producing their wares in a cost-effective way, at lower unit costs per item, ( like cans of baked beans!), they certainly don't appear to be passing these cost savings on to customers from my experience.

Okay - we will now get all the predictable responses about design and production costs, storeage and delivery costs etcetera from some of the bigger ( and not so big) Companies . BUT - for me - it's a simple matter - based on a simple question. Where can I get what I want - at a price that I am comfortable with? And for me - the answer is an easy one. It's from the same smaller "Cottage" industries that I have been buying my Toy Soldiers from for years. And I have no intention of changing that, or my hobby - at all. In my opinion - they get things absolutely right - for me.

All the best - but hope Santa is kind to you - whatever type of TS you prefer Johnnybach

 

[blaster]

I note that most Russian figures sold on ebay are quoted in US dollars or Euros, not roubles. I therefore don't think that Russian made figures are going to be drastically reduced in price.

Regarding production of metal cast toy soldiers, in my experience, one silicone rubber mould will last about 100 castings. I don't know how many toy soldier castings are viably sold on the market, but if they number in the hundreds, then cottage industries would be just as efficient and flexible as big manufacturers in producing castings. The other matter that needs to be considered is the inventory of castings. These cost money and most cottage industries do not have large inventories to cut down on costs. I note that most big manufacturers do not sell castings generally.

I think that most of the labour would be in the commercial painting. Thus cottage industries, if they rely on sole ownership, would be pushed hard to produce sudden rush orders of hundreds of toy soldiers. On the other hand, big manufacturers could rely on either in-house or a network of out-house painters to assist in the painting. In the current model, most big manufacturers do maintain large inventories of finished toy soldiers as a buffer on surge orders. This optimises the use of labour to do both casting and painting.

Rgds Victor

 

[Rutledge]

No question small mom and pop business are more nimble and flexible than larger ones. But buying materials in bulk is always more cost efficient than buying in smaller quantities, as any Costco member will attest.

And of course if you wish to paint or otherwise work with the figures yourself, this is the cheapest possible route, as you are cutting out much labor cost. But most of us dont have the time, patience, skill or knowledge to do so.

King and Country has radically changed the toy solder business. KC production of matte figures and application of professional business practices moved it from its mom and pop roots to be the rather substantial global enterprise it is today. While there is always room for the smaller guy in niche roles, I doubt very much if many of us would prefer if the industry went back from whence it came.

 

[Rutledge]

I note that most Russian figures sold on ebay are quoted in US dollars or Euros, not roubles. I therefore don't think that Russian made figures are going to be drastically reduced in price.

Regarding production of metal cast toy soldiers, in my experience, one silicone rubber mould will last about 100 castings. I don't know how many toy soldier castings are viably sold on the market, but if they number in the hundreds, then cottage industries would be just as efficient and flexible as big manufacturers in producing castings. The other matter that needs to be considered is the inventory of castings. These cost money and most cottage industries do not have large inventories to cut down on costs. I note that most big manufacturers do not sell castings generally.

I think that most of the labour would be in the commercial painting. Thus cottage industries, if they rely on sole ownership, would be pushed hard to produce sudden rush orders of hundreds of toy soldiers. On the other hand, big manufacturers could rely on either in-house or a network of out-house painters to assist in the painting. In the current model, most big manufacturers do maintain large inventories of finished toy soldiers as a buffer on surge orders. This optimises the use of labour to do both casting and painting.

Rgds Victor

Well, its a bit quick to see any movement just yet. And I wouldnt go solely by Ebay. As time goes by, as, and if, Russian desire for US$ or Euro grows, there may be price reductions or discounts - possibly drastic, possibly not. China and other Asian producers may already be seeing a higher level of competition from Russia. There is word China is already allowing the Yuan to depreciate a bit, suggesting the currency movements are already being felt.

 

[Currahee Chris]

At this point in the game, I dont even care anymore about the economics of the entire situation. I believe we have seen several different market forces at play which everyone seems to believe will lower or raise the costs of figures. It aint happened yet. I dont want to be a pessimist as I think we have all seen several companies trying to adapt and lessen the blow. Here are the truths that I feel are stable outside of the entire economics issues we discuss invariably from time to time:

1.) This is a niche market. Buyers have higher disposable income which allows them to eat the slack as prices increase.

2.) This is a hobby where buyers can be getting hit by other life influences- my eldest son is going to college and my youngest is receiving baseball instruction from a former scout of the mets and marlins. These expenditures are way more important to me than my hobby at the mo.

3.) The quality of figures across the board has increased exponentially. Everyone knows that has an associated cost- if everyone can increase quality then clearly this helps prove point #1- that collectors can eat the slack and in return get some incredible looking figures.

4.) All collectors have a price ceiling.

That being said, I just cannot justify where the hobby is at the moment with my money. Im not bailing out of course, but I am being forced to be more selective on the ranges I get involved with. Ive even considered going back and buying up some of those Atlantic sets I used to have as a boy. I can still find great enjoyment in the hobby but unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to find it in the core activity of the hobby- the monthly purchase of new figures. As collectors the price ceiling is a reality and it will affect us all in one shape way form or the other.

Best regards
CC

 

[blaster]

There seems to be two threads here: plastic or metal toy soldier and their pricing/costs. These have different setup costs and production numbers which are not in the same ballpark, in my opinion.

My earlier comments apply only to metal toy soldiers, since I was thinking of making comparisons between cottage industry and big companies. For metal figures, I fully agree that this is a niche hobby, which in itself, is a constraint on price movements. Given the cost and production numbers from silicone rubber moulds, I don't think that cottage industry are necessarily more nimble than big companies in pursuing commissions. It's just a question of whether it makes sense for big companies to deviate from their accumulated inventory to pursue ad hoc commissions.

For eg, when I visited the HongKong museum recently, I saw some rather unique and attractive HongKong figures, fully painted including a wedding scene and lion dance for sale which were produced specifically for the HongKong museum. I was informed that these were made by K&C. These were largely resin figures, I think, nicely boxed and very reasonably priced, in my opinion. The prices are in HK dollars.
http://www.lcsd.gov.hk/CE/Museum/History/en_US/web/mh/publications/souvenir.html

The prices of Russian figures are always quoted in USD on the internet if you wish to buy direct from Russian manufacturers. But it makes sense to purchase only castings in this manner. For the price of fully painted figures, it would make more sense and less risky to buy from established dealers in the US for these figures. Any price fluctuations will be mitigated by them as they also would have some inventory.

Rgds Victor

 

[damian]

At this point in the game, I dont even care anymore about the economics of the entire situation. I believe we have seen several different market forces at play which everyone seems to believe will lower or raise the costs of figures. It aint happened yet. I dont want to be a pessimist as I think we have all seen several companies trying to adapt and lessen the blow. Here are the truths that I feel are stable outside of the entire economics issues we discuss invariably from time to time:

1.) This is a niche market. Buyers have higher disposable income which allows them to eat the slack as prices increase.

2.) This is a hobby where buyers can be getting hit by other life influences- my eldest son is going to college and my youngest is receiving baseball instruction from a former scout of the mets and marlins. These expenditures are way more important to me than my hobby at the mo.

3.) The quality of figures across the board has increased exponentially. Everyone knows that has an associated cost- if everyone can increase quality then clearly this helps prove point #1- that collectors can eat the slack and in return get some incredible looking figures.

4.) All collectors have a price ceiling.

That being said, I just cannot justify where the hobby is at the moment with my money. Im not bailing out of course, but I am being forced to be more selective on the ranges I get involved with. Ive even considered going back and buying up some of those Atlantic sets I used to have as a boy. I can still find great enjoyment in the hobby but unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to find it in the core activity of the hobby- the monthly purchase of new figures. As collectors the price ceiling is a reality and it will affect us all in one shape way form or the other.

Best regards
CC

I hear you Chris
Basically you and I have hit the same patch in life and have turned into high school parents.
The baseball lessons from the Mets Scout sound great
Good luck with that and with college
The price of the memories all those activities create is not possible to measure

 

[Jack]

It does indeed also depend on external influences. Over the past two years or so as I read many often angry price threads, the strong Aussie dollars allied with paying off my house meant that I was largely immune to the pressure of rising prices. As the prices stabilised or in some cases dropped, a weakening Aussie dollar has meant that the 'cheaper' figures are actually a few dollars dearer than the 'expensive' ones were twelve months ago. The other bad news was a clean bill of health from my doctor so I will need more money to fund my retirement as it appears I will live longer than anticipated.{sm4}

 

[ivanmoe]

Let me once again summarize some developments in diecast model production and some possible parallels with TS manuacture.

The number of companies that manufacture diecast models continues to contract. This year a fairly large concern, Witty Wings, went under. I don't believe that there was ever any sort of official explanation as to why, so I assume that it was the already mentioned "market forces" at work. It's worth noting that Witty had announced some ambitious new toolings in the months immediately before its demise. Apparently, these problems can go critical quite suddenly.

Against that same backdrop, another manufacturer, Falcon Models, also ceased production. However, in this instance a culprit was identified. Falcon announced that it could no longer provide models because the factory that had been producing its castings had shut down for good. Further, it had been unable to locate a new partner. No joy there.

Less dire, but still a cause for concern is the delayed (and somewhat disappointing) release of Corgi's 1st half catalog for 2015. Having already undergone financial reorganization, Corgi continues to limp along. The other point worth mentioning is that it's moves from factory to factory over the last few years have introduced some fairly dreadful QA results into it's pieces, so much so that more and more collectors are unwilling to pre-order Corgi, P-O being a central feature of it's business strategy. For the uninitiated, no preorders usually equates with no production from "the pooch."

Finally, Hobby Master's release schedule has gone kind of bonkers. Its announced some ambitious new toolings, but there's concern among collectors that the models in question might have gone "a niche too far," and be of very little interest outside of the USA. In an apparent attempt to shield vendors from being saddled with unsold inventory, HM has cut production runs for individual models pretty drastically. New runs are typically under one-thousand pieces. Some are as low as two hundred, BTW. They've also raised prices for like product over the last two years by somewhere between twenty and fifty percent. Predictably, that means fewer buyers.

Pardon me for having thrown all this diecast model biz at our readers, but there remain some noteworthy parallels between TS and pre-finished model manufacturing. I suggest that because each is dependent on low-cost manufature in Chinese plants that are fewer and fewer in number. I don't know if there's been any sort of official announcement from its government, but it really does appear that China is no longer willing to subsidize the manufacture of upscale, pre-finished toys. With that in mind, I'd question the future of the entire enterprise, regardless of the price. For many of us, that will mean a return to the good old days of modeling. It'll be DYI or die for most folks who want something "new" on display in their home.:redface2:

-Moe