Coming Price Deflation (1 Viewer)

[damian]

Gents,

Look, China IS their own worst enemy. As RPZ mentioned the whole population thing. Well, thats what happens when you have a "one child" policy for decades...yes decades. The ebb and flow of a natural crating population has been disturbed by a draconian law that limited the amount of children (and which sex) in China. Thus, creating a society that is imbalanced in gender. That in itself creates social stresses that affect generation past, present and future. I could go on and on about this one, but you get the picture.

China refuses to use sound judgement in regards to its populace and its place in the manufacturing world. Therefore, factories are built right next to neighborhoods. Factories are built with no pollution standards whatsoever and that is why you see the following more and more in China:

View attachment 186774

Are you kidding me? If this was to happen in the US there would be riots in the streets. But, it won't because the Government imposes strict rules on pollution and populace would not stand for it.

China's can't make up their minds! China has enjoyed the economic boom of the last 15 years or so via capitalism, yet they are a Communist regime. Well, you can't have you cake and eat it too. As I pointed out earlier in the thread the CEO's of China's bazillion dollar companies always get arrested and whacked out by the Chinese government. A bullet to the head is the end of the line for you if your corrupt...NOT legislative change, new laws or policy improvements. A shoot first and ask NO questions later is China's answer to any malfeasance.

Finally, the lack of innovation will be and always has been China's achilles heel. Tech companies are now putting out designs and instructions of their property (i.e. software, engineered plans, ideas) out there for the Chinese to hack. Why? Cause it's fake. They are so sick and tired of being ripped off that they are now baiting Chinese hackers with false information so that they can concentrate on innovation versus worrying about who will steal it. In fact, Chinese thievery is so bad, that if you see a person of Chinese decent digging in a Iowa corn field you better call the cops. Don't believe me? Research the stories of Chinese stealing seeds to take back to China to unravel the GMO seed technology.

View attachment 186775

So, China is on a one way ticket to self destruction if they don't stop the current train wreck they are on now. For if they don't they will crash and take a whole bunch of countries with them...and Toy Soldiers too I guess.

John from Texas

The US and the west have not been far behind China in aborting their future generations.

 

[Phantom Warrior]

Price deflation has been underway for several years. It's quite visible in the toy soldier resale market. A few items command a premium on resale. Some items resell for about their original price. But most figures resell for much less than the price of $45 - $60 for new figures. The "deflation" is borne by the collectors who are disposing of sets. The manufacturers won't experience deflation in the same way. They must make a profit to stay in business. Rather than lower prices, they will limit production to just profitable ranges or close shop. Deflation for producers wil show up as fewer producers, fewer ranges of figures, and smaller production runs.

Terry

 

[hotel3alpha]

The US and the west have not been far behind China in aborting their future generations.

Damian,

YES, the US is not perfect. There is no perfection in the world. In fact, far from it and I certainly am not going to sit here and say that the US is a "city on a hill". No not at all. There is no Utopia in this world except for maybe Bhutan where there is the Gross National Happiness index and Marijuana grows wild with no drug problems. Look, I am not a China hater here, but it is frustrating to see such a great country with so much history and potential take the easy route to become a world leader.

The US tried to take the easy route with Slavery to bolster the economy and look what happened there...one of the worst periods in American history via Civil War. The US also tried to take the easy route in early 1900's during the Industrial Revolution by forgoing safety and labor laws. The end result? Sweeping legislation and a complete overhaul of factories, working conditions and regulations on business owners. The latest easy route was lax rules on home financing that cause the economic meltdown of 2008 and...well, we all know that one. But, what is different about these situations is that the US "owns" them.

As far as aborting the future. I think there are great steps (not strides) the US has taken to provide a better future for its citizens, but there is so much to improve economically, socially and environmentally. Has China done everything it can to improve its way of life for its citizens? You tell me. Further, tell me what innovations has China put their name on to lament their name in history via technology, medicine, research, agriculture, science, etc, etc, etc.

To me that's what makes a country a stand out and I would rather see "Invented in China" versus "Made in China".

John from Texas

 

[Rutledge]

Price deflation has been underway for several years. It's quite visible in the toy soldier resale market. A few items command a premium on resale. Some items resell for about their original price. But most figures resell for much less than the price of $45 - $60 for new figures. The "deflation" is borne by the collectors who are disposing of sets. The manufacturers won't experience deflation in the same way. They must make a profit to stay in business. Rather than lower prices, they will limit production to just profitable ranges or close shop. Deflation for producers wil show up as fewer producers, fewer ranges of figures, and smaller production runs.

Terry

Perhaps. But high fixed costs do not allow much production flexibility. I don't know how the manufacturers are structured. True, certainly, that lower supply is one answer to the problem, however that is achieved. The oil producers are waiting on everyone else to cut supply, and it's not happening.

Oil is a bigger concern than China. Over $100 trillion of wealth has already been destroyed from the collapse in oil prices. And there are more losses ahead. That will be felt in many places.

 

[BLReed]

China has some out dated social concepts. Can't believe that doesn't affect their economy. Then again maybe they are on to something.
We have an increase in single family mothers and fathers that don't accept responsibility.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/02/08/china-needs-more-teachers-but-have-to-be-men.html?intcmp=hplnws

"Worried that a shortage of male teachers has produced a generation of timid, self-centered and effeminate boys, Chinese educators are working to reinforce traditional gender roles and values in the classroom.

Education officials across China are aggressively recruiting male teachers, as the Chinese news media warns of a need to “salvage masculinity in schools.” The call for more male-oriented education has prompted a broader debate about gender equality and social identity at a time when the country’s leaders are seeking to make the labor market more meritocratic.

It also reflects a general anxiety about boys in Chinese society. While boys outnumber girls as a result of the longstanding one-child policy and a cultural preference for sons, they consistently lag in academic performance. Some parents worry about their sons’ prospects in an uncertain economy, so they are putting their hopes in male role models who they believe impart lessons on assertiveness, courage and sacrifice."

 

[damian]

Damian,

YES, the US is not perfect. There is no perfection in the world. In fact, far from it and I certainly am not going to sit here and say that the US is a "city on a hill". No not at all. There is no Utopia in this world except for maybe Bhutan where there is the Gross National Happiness index and Marijuana grows wild with no drug problems. Look, I am not a China hater here, but it is frustrating to see such a great country with so much history and potential take the easy route to become a world leader.

The US tried to take the easy route with Slavery to bolster the economy and look what happened there...one of the worst periods in American history via Civil War. The US also tried to take the easy route in early 1900's during the Industrial Revolution by forgoing safety and labor laws. The end result? Sweeping legislation and a complete overhaul of factories, working conditions and regulations on business owners. The latest easy route was lax rules on home financing that cause the economic meltdown of 2008 and...well, we all know that one. But, what is different about these situations is that the US "owns" them.

As far as aborting the future. I think there are great steps (not strides) the US has taken to provide a better future for its citizens, but there is so much to improve economically, socially and environmentally. Has China done everything it can to improve its way of life for its citizens? You tell me. Further, tell me what innovations has China put their name on to lament their name in history via technology, medicine, research, agriculture, science, etc, etc, etc.

To me that's what makes a country a stand out and I would rather see "Invented in China" versus "Made in China".

John from Texas

I am Sorry if I was not clear.
I was simply pointing out that we in the west have since 1973 aborted quite a lot of innocent foetuses
That is the future I was referring to
I did not intend to discuss politics or economics at all.

 

[hotel3alpha]

I am Sorry if I was not clear.
I was simply pointing out that we in the west have since 1973 aborted quite a lot of innocent foetuses
That is the future I was referring to
I did not intend to discuss politics or economics at all.

Damian,

Oh, okay, I get it now. You were referring to abortion (s) versus the political socio-economic argument in regards to China's economic woes. Hmmm, I guess that is a comparison I have never given any thought too: China's one child policy vs. the Roe v. Wade decision. Lets see...Roe vs Wade-1973 on the premise of a womens right to choose. China's one child policy-1979 to curb population. Am I reading you right here Damian?

If so, thats and interesting comparison/argument that I will look into and save for another debate.

John from Texas

 

[damian]

Damian,

Oh, okay, I get it now. You were referring to abortion (s) versus the political socio-economic argument in regards to China's economic woes. Hmmm, I guess that is a comparison I have never given any thought too: China's one child policy vs. the Roe v. Wade decision. Lets see...Roe vs Wade-1973 on the premise of a womens right to choose. China's one child policy-1979 to curb population. Am I reading you right here Damian?

If so, thats and interesting comparison/argument that I will look into and save for another debate.

John from Texas

John
I am just saying I don't like abortion, that is all.
Roe vs Wade no choice for the baby.
I hope I am not being controversial
I prefer the American way and the western way to Chinese way.
Sorry for any confusion.

 

[Rutledge]

From WSJ:
"...Market sentiment about China has turned sharply negative in recent months amid a torrent of capital out-flows from the world’s most populous nation. Investors fear that development presages a sharp devaluation of the yuan that could threaten to intensify the currency wars encircling the globe and send a wave of deflation that would further enfeeble economic growth. China devalued the yuan in August, but officials have said they would like to maintain it at a stable level....
In the letter, Mr. Bass wrote that the assets in China’s banking system are equivalent to 340% of the country’s gross domestic product and that the PBOC would need to print more than $10 trillion worth of yuan to recapitalize its banks. The magnitude of losses by China’s banking system “could exceed 400% of the U.S. bank-ing losses incurred during the sub-prime crisis,” he wrote.

 

[hotel3alpha]

From WSJ:
"...Market sentiment about China has turned sharply negative in recent months amid a torrent of capital out-flows from the world’s most populous nation. Investors fear that development presages a sharp devaluation of the yuan that could threaten to intensify the currency wars encircling the globe and send a wave of deflation that would further enfeeble economic growth. China devalued the yuan in August, but officials have said they would like to maintain it at a stable level....
In the letter, Mr. Bass wrote that the assets in China’s banking system are equivalent to 340% of the country’s gross domestic product and that the PBOC would need to print more than $10 trillion worth of yuan to recapitalize its banks. The magnitude of losses by China’s banking system “could exceed 400% of the U.S. bank-ing losses incurred during the sub-prime crisis,” he wrote.

Yikes!

John from Texas

 

[BLReed]

11 February 2016
"Wall Street extended a sharp selloff on Thursday after Sweden’s central bank slashed interest rates further into negative territory, and Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen discussed again the possibility of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in the U.S.

In her remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, Yellen said the central bank has not ruled out negative rates as a tool to help boost inflation in the nation. "

 

[Peter Reuss]

Gents, I'm just catching up on things and I find we've gone pretty far afield from toy soldier conversation here. Talking world economics has led us squarely into politics (throw abortion in there and you are REALLY in politics). It's time to move on. Instead of trying to figure out which posts to delete for political discussion I will simply close the thread.