What Recession? (1 Viewer)

[maddadicus]

If the economy is so bad ,if so many have lost their jobs, then why are all the toy soldier mfg. spitting out new releases as if there is no tomorrow and we are buying them all? There has been no letup from Figarti, CS, First Legion and KC in producing home run, must have models, at higher pricing than ever before. And yet, no one here is saying ,enough already. To heck with the mortgage, groceries, home repairs and kid's braces, let's preorder everything offered. Why are we collectors not affected and why don't the mfg. take notice of the worldwide financial downturn? Just wondering? Michael

 

[Canadian Samurai]

I've been wondering the same thing myself. A few different possible explanations:

1) Perhaps we're all too addicted to toy soldiers to let anything so trivial as a recession get between us and our hobby! Food, housing and children are of secondary importance.

2) I said the other day this is perceived to be, and in many ways is, a rich man's hobby, or at least a higher income hobby. As usual in a recession, people of higher income have been less likely to lose their jobs and are generally less fearful, meaning they have not been affected as much as lower income individuals. The wealthy are not having to choose between food and hobby and hence just keep on spending the budget of a small African nation on their collections. In sum, it seems a good number of people have so much money that the recession is perhaps not affecting them enough to get between them and their hobby. Other economic sectors that rely primarily on the spending of lower and middle class people have not been so lucky, explaining how you can have downturns in some sectors which ours remains unscathed.

3) Perhaps this recession is simply overblown unless you're in the auto or financial sectors, and I'm not sure if the average auto worker buys toy soldiers. If this were anything like the great depression it is so often compared to, we would be seeing 25% unemployment and massive price reductions in stores leading to deflation. None of that is happening. The fact is that western developed nations are obscenely rich and a recession is defined only as a few successive quarters of no growth. Emphasize again the word growth. We are not seeing major economic contraction meaning the consumer base as a whole has as much money as it did in 2007, it's just not growing its income at the rate it might like nor does it have as much easy credit available as before. So there's still tons of money out there still to be spent on hobbies every year. Our society is very spoiled on consumer goods and for it to whine just because of a slowdown in growth smacks of sheer gluttony IMO. Individuals are certainly suffering today but in terms of society as a whole it is an insult to compare the mild discomfort of the current generation with the trials faced by those alive in the 1930s. It smacks of spoiled wanna-be hubris. We are not the greatest generation.

4) Perhaps the recession is having an effect and we're just not seeing it because we're not privy to manufacturer's bottom lines. The trend toward smaller release runs and faster retirements may point to this.

All that said, and assuming we really are in the kind of economic crisis the media likes to remind us of every day, I have to agree that the toy soldier companies appear to be a bit out of touch with reality. They do have to be careful not to flood the market with so much stuff that they create their own mini bubble that collapses if people ever really do start losing their jobs on a large scale. Which may very well be coming around the corner, but it's not here yet.

As for myself, I am cutting way back on my spending, but my reasons for this are not directly attributable to the recession. I just laugh now everytime Figarti or the rest come out with another $300 item. It's quite comical.

 

[trooper]

I agree with most of Canadian samurai's post. One further reason why the recession has not had the same impact on our hobby is that many, if not most, of the collectors are of middle age, or older. This means that their heavy expenditure in terms of housing, mortgages, children etc is behind them and so they now have more disposable income.
With regard to the manufacturers producing more and more figures there are two factors at work here. Those makers who sub contract their work to China have to produce an initial set number of each piece and quite a few new pieces each time to make up a container load. Some of those items will sell very quickly, others not. Rather than reorder and have still more slow moving items on the shelves it is easier to retire the quick movers and order up a completely new set of items for the next load. However the small cottage industry types can make new figures, mould them and then only need to cast to order, thus making a vast saving on metal costs which they can then invest in new products.

 

[damian]

African nation on their collections. In sum, it seems a good number of . We are not the greatest generation.



l.

Fattest maybe!!

 

[jazzeum]

We tend to focus on toy soldiers but that is what we collect and are interested in but if you look at what people selling are in general, there doesn't appear to be any recession there either; expensive cars and when I was reading today's paper, there was an ad for something called a sweater jacket, $425. People are still going to make expensive meetings and there will be some groups out there buying them.

 

[canucks]

I have cut back my spending because I would rather trade foam buildings for product.......I make four different styles....War torn and non war torn and Civil war cabins.......I have had some sucess to date and my out of pocket is just time to build them for others.......Nothing like getting product for my labor as I do enjoy building them.....Being retired I do have time to build......Send me a picture and I will build.......
Regards,
Canucks

 

[Spitfrnd]

I have cut back my spending because I would rather trade foam buildings for product.......I make four different styles....War torn and non war torn and Civil war cabins.......I have had some sucess to date and my out of pocket is just time to build them for others.......Nothing like getting product for my labor as I do enjoy building them.....Being retired I do have time to build......Send me a picture and I will build.......
Regards,
Canucks

Can you post some photos of your work?

 

[Grognard]

I agree with both Trooper's and Canadian Samourai's assesments. I think there may be also a latency in all recessions on when a specific economic area is affected, sometimes it takes more time for some than others due to many factors some of them being listed on this thread. Toys soldiers industry is also a very small niche that taylors to people who are passionate/dedicated about this hobby and may be ready to sacrifice a little on other things. Like with every hobby this is also a good distraction to what is happening around us and to keep our sanity in this world . That being said, I do think we are all a little more cautious on our purchases and we focus more than ever on quality...So as long as great quality figurines are produced there will be a market for them.

 

[Njja]

I think its the 30 or is it 50 million uninsured people that are buying all the

stuff.

 

[Canadian Samurai]

I agree with Trooper's assessments as well and should add them as point 5 and 6.

The age factor is certainly a big one because as is usual during a recession the unemployment burden is falling disproportionately on younger people (in addition to the fact they still have major life expenditures ahead of them). Those without a lot of job experience are the first to get cut. The toy soldier industry is lucky it doesn't rely on their spending too much.

Regarding China, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) that the recession has had one positive effect by lowering the costs of toy soldier manufacturing over there. Factories are now eager (desperate?) for work. Labour, oil and commodity prices are down from their earlier highs which makes it cheaper to turn out the figures so even if demand and revenue drops, profits can be maintained.

 

[VIRIATO]

My bet would be on:

-escapism («remember» the fall of Rome or the fall of Berlin?);
-overblown reccession.

But individually things surely vary a lot. Try telling someone who is unemployed that the reccession is overblown:(...

Paulo

 

[Scott]

I'm cutting back on buying plus I'm selling my "toy" style figures to a gift shop to supplement by "income."

 

[Njja]

We went out to dinner last night and were suprised to find the place almost

empty......so perhaps things aren't all as they might seem.

 

[Grognard]

I think this comining Xmas will be a good test to really see where the economy stands...

 

[trooper]

I agree with Trooper's assessments as well and should add them as point 5 and 6.

The age factor is certainly a big one because as is usual during a recession the unemployment burden is falling disproportionately on younger people (in addition to the fact they still have major life expenditures ahead of them). Those without a lot of job experience are the first to get cut. The toy soldier industry is lucky it doesn't rely on their spending too much.

Regarding China, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) that the recession has had one positive effect by lowering the costs of toy soldier manufacturing over there. Factories are now eager (desperate?) for work. Labour, oil and commodity prices are down from their earlier highs which makes it cheaper to turn out the figures so even if demand and revenue drops, profits can be maintained.

The costs of production in China may well be falling but the transport costs must surely be horrendous. I have heard that at least one major company is looking to exploit Bangladesh as a cheaper source of labour, but the transport will again be a factor. It is significant that the "China" companies are also the most expensive, in general almost double the price of the "In house" brigade.

 

[wayne556517]

What recession.....................Where doing fine here

 

[damian]

There is a bit of a recession in All Black rugby and Aussie cricket that we know.

 

[canucks]

Spitfrnd:
I do not have the sofeware to post images as yet.....You might want to check Minutemen toy soldiers site and look under Canucks Creations as those are mind.......Hope this helps.
Regards,
Canucks

 

[Rutledge]

...Other economic sectors that rely primarily on the spending of lower and middle class people have not been so lucky, explaining how you can have downturns in some sectors which ours remains unscathed...We are not seeing major economic contraction meaning the consumer base as a whole has as much money as it did in 2007...

The facts do not support these assetions, CS. The lower end of the housing market, for example, is the only one seeing any serious buying activity due to the housing tax credit and increased affordability. Also, jumbo mortgages are (relatively) expensive and credit standards remain high with few "alternative" financing options. Higher end home sales are thus virtually moribund. Furthermore, grocery stores, Wal-Mart and other "low cost" options are among the heatlhier retail segments.

The velocity of the money supply has contracted sharply since the recession began. Consumers are not spending as much while unemployment has risen substantially. The main reason deflation has not come about is the massive goverment spending that has replaced some of the lost consumer demand. Also helping are extraordinarily low interest rates as determined by the Fed, currently at 0.25% (essentially zero). Both of these have helped us avoid, thus far, the kind of meltdown that was experienced during the 30's, when the govt was not so inclined toward intervention/Keynesian deficit spending. Chariman Bernanke has studied the depression era his whole life and is determined he will not make the same "mistakes".

That said, the long term affects of such policies are still unknown and, some have argued, will ultimately prove to be worse than if we had just let nature take its course.

Here is a quote from on of my favorite commentators:

"Reality is staring back in the mirror at the American consumer, and especially the Boomer generation. The psyche of the American consumer has been permanently seared. We are watching savings beginning to rise and consumer spending patterns change for the first time in generations. Even as the authorities try to prod consumers back into old habits, they are not responding. Borrowing and credit are actually falling. Banks, for whatever reason, now want borrowers to actually be able to pay them back. Go figure.

Frugality is the new normal. We are resetting the underpinnings of a consumer-driven society to a new level. It will require a major overhaul of our economy. The normal drivers of growth - consumer spending, business investment, and exports - are all weak, and it is only because of massive government spending that the second quarter was not as bad as the two previous quarters and that the coming quarter will be positive."

 

[damian]

The facts do not support these assetions, CS. The lower end of the housing market, for example, is the only one seeing any serious buying activity due to the housing tax credit and increased affordability. Also, jumbo mortgages are (relatively) expensive and credit standards remain high with few "alternative" financing options. Higher end home sales are thus virtually moribund. Furthermore, grocery stores, Wal-Mart and other "low cost" options are among the heatlhier retail segments.

The velocity of the money supply has contracted sharply since the recession began. Consumers are not spending as much while unemployment has risen substantially. The main reason deflation has not come about is the massive goverment spending that has replaced some of the lost consumer demand. Also helping are extraordinarily low interest rates as determined by the Fed, currently at 0.25% (essentially zero). Both of these have helped us avoid, thus far, the kind of meltdown that was experienced during the 30's, when the govt was not so inclined toward intervention/Keynesian deficit spending. Chariman Bernanke has studied the depression era his whole life and is determined he will not make the same "mistakes".

That said, the long term affects of such policies are still unknown and, some have argued, will ultimately prove to be worse than if we had just let nature take its course.

Here is a quote from on of my favorite commentators:

"Reality is staring back in the mirror at the American consumer, and especially the Boomer generation. The psyche of the American consumer has been permanently seared. We are watching savings beginning to rise and consumer spending patterns change for the first time in generations. Even as the authorities try to prod consumers back into old habits, they are not responding. Borrowing and credit are actually falling. Banks, for whatever reason, now want borrowers to actually be able to pay them back. Go figure.

Frugality is the new normal. We are resetting the underpinnings of a consumer-driven society to a new level. It will require a major overhaul of our economy. The normal drivers of growth - consumer spending, business investment, and exports - are all weak, and it is only because of massive government spending that the second quarter was not as bad as the two previous quarters and that the coming quarter will be positive."

So why are Figarti selling out 250 USD pieces overnight?