Anyone notice the cost of our hobby is going up? (1 Viewer)

[desk11desk12]

Firebat,

Interesting perspective, don’t know if you’re right or wrong. However, if most collectors are doing this based on speculative value in the future rather than the enjoyment then maybe you might be right. I hope not.

Personally, I may be at a crossroads in my young collective life, though I’m not sure. I guess I’m in it for the fun and the enjoyment of creating my own diorama scenes. That can be easily accomplished with 1/32 scale products like FOV, Built-A-RAMA, painted plastic Conte/ TSSD’s and augmented with some ONWTC and Britains.

However, the investment/ resale value of these sets is minimal to zero but they’re enjoyable and the initial investment is low comparable to 1/30 and 1/32 metal. However, even the FOV’s and painted plastic prices are creeping up but at a much lower pace than 1/32 metal and 1/30.

So why do I continue to pay three to four times the cost for King and Country, Hounor Bound and NMA? Why, because they’re cool and I like them. So if the market value on them dropped by 50% due to overproduction, economy, etc., what would I do or think?

I WOULDN’T LIKE it but I’d probably rationalize it by saying to myself that I got them originally because of the enjoyment and not as bet on its future resale value. Additionally the drop in resale value would be tolerable because of the entertainment value already consumed by me in time. Kind of weird I know but it makes sense to me because it is consistent with why I’m in this hobby.

Don’t get me wrong I’d love to recoup my initial investment or more from my collection but c’mon, isn’t there other things we could invest in with less risk and higher returns.

Besides, I’ve run out of space in my home and I’ll be selling some stuff soon to relieve the congestion. First to go will a lot of old Britains and Conte manufactured some 2-5 years ago and I’ll be lucky to get 50 cents on the dollar for this stuff. Also going will be some duplicate KC sets I have. Oh well, this is the nature of this hobby.

Also, I won’t be getting most everything produced for WWII anymore due to space considerations and increasing prices in 1/30 market segment and even some in the 1/32.

Carlos

 

[OzDigger]

My only concern for the value of my collection is the hope that my children will not sell it and prehaps even continue the tradition for years to come. If my grandson, age 6, were to become a collector, he could be collecting until the end of the 21st century. That could make my collection close to 100 years old by then.

I don't do this for the money value. Some do and bless them for doing it.

We may love this stuff, but the odds are it's highly unlikely that our kids will. The sad part is they will most likely sell it off cheap after our demise So I suggest we don't go overboard with collecting, and just buy what you like.

It's also a good idea to list and describe what models you have with recommended prices for selling. Not that I have bothered myself. The fact is if my wife found out that I'd spent several hundred thousand dollars on 'stupid models' since we've been married, my 'demise' may come sooner than expected

Firebat's comments are unfortunately true. I have seen similar bubbles burst in other diecast collectables. For example with Corgi Aircraft you would have had to pay $130 for a 1/72 scale bomber model a few short years ago, now they can be bought in discount places in the US such as Tuesday Morning for under $30. Over production was the main cause, the company just got to greedy and reissued several different schemes of each 'limited' mold. So effectively there were soon tens of thousands of a 'rare' item - the only difference being the color. There's just not that many true diecast 'collectors' in the world when It's all said and done, the others are investors and itinerants.

Chucks comments reminded me that my father was passionate about horses. He could break in a young horse and educate it to high levels such as used in dressage. He spent considerable time, money and effort on horses and must have been very disappointed that none of his sons had the slightest interest in them. We found cars, motor bikes, and girls much more interesting

 

[Combat]

Andy indicated that KC has plans to increase its advertising budget by
500%. That is a good indication of where things are going with production numbers.

 

[Toy Soldier Brigade]

desk11desk12


Please let me know if you are selling any of those older Britains sets Have any ACW sets ? I have lots of room.

 

[desk11desk12]

Sorry Toy Soldier Brigade,

I only collect WWII. Although I must admit if I were to collect another era it would be ACW.

Carlos

 

[Firebat]

I really don't care what they are worth, it would be nice if they at least retained their value., I am like Carlos more interested in dioramas and the modeling aspect. My main point really was not value, but what looks like a upcoming heavy boost in the initial price. Is it manufacturers cost or.................you fill in the rest....................Alex

PS Just sold some pretty popular 1/6th pieces to raise money for this, and I just about broke even. I was talking to a guy at work who was in our NASCAR club, he bought 2 of each, he is not really upset because he just likes them, but he would be happier if they were worth something. And to hopefully clarify some of my previous statements, we are the brothers (A Fire Department term) in a common hobby, we need to stick together (There is that Fire Department I've got you back team work thing again) because we provide the manufacturers with their profit, and we should demand the quality and pricing we deserve. And from what I have seen so far the Manufacturers have done a good job, but there are some signs on the horizion.............

 

[jazzeum]

I can't decide which way to go on this. I posted something on the Panzer Meyer thread full of doom and gloom but then saw Combat's post about Andy increasing his advertising budget and Carlos' post over at toysoldierchat in response to mine about how two of the dealers have just about sold out their allotment of the Meyer. Then George (warrior) says the same. I withdrew the post because if the market is expanding, making 1,250 may not be an unreasonable number if he's just keeping up with demand. He may be just scratching the market. If he makes too few, he's really not going to satisfy demand and will instead probably hinder growth. If we see these fetch high prices on ebay, then we know we were doomsayers. Conversely, if the prices tank, then we know there was overproduction. I think it's a fine line that needs to be managed carefully: too little or too much. I didn't get into this hobby for value. Yes, it's nice if it keeps its value and goes up a little bit but if I'm going to constantly worry about it, as what happens with FOV, then I need to turn my attention elsewhere. I don't have the answer but I implicitly trust Andy to have the collectors' interests at heart.

 

[Peter Reuss]

As dealers, we have to say that demand for K&C has definitely been rising. Just look at how many people on this Forum are new collectors. The ones who have been collecting for 2 years are now considered old-timers.

Toy soldier collecting is still a very small market. When you think about it, a production run of 1250 over the whole world is miniscule. With proper advertising, K&C could add that many in a year's time. I personally thing we're on the edge of something big in this industry. Even with new K&C dealers on board, we here at Treefrog are consistantly having to order more of the new products to keep up with demand. That is a positive sign for all of us.

Will the retired prices keep up their frenzy? That's another question - but you have to admit that they went amazingly high. I still see strong times ahead for this industry, and K&C in particular.

Pete

 

[OzDigger]

Pete, I'm all for expanding this market to ensure more collctors have a chance to secure their desired item(s). But shouldn't the price per item decrease rather than increase with higher production numbers? I guess we'll have to wait and see how much the next Strictly Limited piece costs to get a price check on that. Or should we be getting a reality check instead

 

[jazzeum]

As dealers, we have to say that demand for K&C has definitely been rising. Just look at how many people on this Forum are new collectors. The ones who have been collecting for 2 years are now considered old-timers.

Toy soldier collecting is still a very small market. When you think about it, a production run of 1250 over the whole world is miniscule. With proper advertising, K&C could add that many in a year's time. I personally thing we're on the edge of something big in this industry. Even with new K&C dealers on board, we here at Treefrog are consistantly having to order more of the new products to keep up with demand. That is a positive sign for all of us.

Will the retired prices keep up their frenzy? That's another question - but you have to admit that they went amazingly high. I still see strong times ahead for this industry, and K&C in particular.

Pete

As collectors we're concerned with our collection at least keeping up in value. When you say a production run of 1,250 for the whole world is miniscule, is King and Country collected over the whole world and how do we know what the size of the base such that you can call something miniscule or not. You can only do that if you've done market research. Has that research been done for K & C as a whole. If so, we'd be interested in seeing it. It's a given that the collector base has increased. Last year, we had the first SL and that was a run of 500. Many runs in the past before the "boom" were 500 or so. In the last year or so, has the base doubled, justifying a run of 1,250? We see this as possibly leading to massive overproduction, causing the market, as it were to crash. If that crashes, so does K & C. Part of the mystique of K & C are the rarity of some of the issues and the prices they fetch in the secondary market. If that mystique is gone and we have massive overproduction, it's just another poster boy to a hobby gone bust, to be added to beanie babies, etc.

Andy said in his post that the numbers over the Greif was increased because this was Europe and not North Africa. However, last year the Winter Tiger was produced in the amount of 999, which I think is an optimal number and that was for Europe.

In addition, something should be truly limited. I don't think 1,250 in a small hobby can necessarily be truly classified as limited so that it's a really prized and perhaps expensive part of your collection. When something is limited, it means truly is available in small numbers. I don't think 1,250 meets that criteria.

I think there are some serious questions that are being raised and I don't see manufacturers or dealers sufficiently addressing these concerns. As with most things of today, people see things in the short term but never take the long view.

 

[Njja]

Brad:

Your points well as usual well thought out and right to the point.

I hope Andy C. reads them and gives them serious thought.

My main concern is that nothing of importance (WWII items) is being

retired which is shutting down the secondary market. The secondary market

helps provide interest to draw new collectors, and provide funds for other

collectors to grow their collections. It is a serious mistake to interfere with it.

I usued to spend $2K to $3K a year on King & Country before it was widely

popular. The last couple of years $4K to $6K with the value of retired pieces

assisting the additional spending. This year so far I have spent $425 because

most items are available?????? almost for ever it seems. Not only do we need

new collectors, we also need to continue to attract existing collectors other

wise inventories will become a problem for dealers and as you stated the

entire market place will be at risk.

Its a reall shame because as Tony Soprano said "Theres pleanty for

everybody".........

Njja

 

[Firebat]

I am proud of you guys...................now you remind me of the brothers at work, and maybe you can see I was on your side all along.......................Alex

 

[OzDigger]

To survive in business in the long term King and Country need to produce more and better detailed products to attract sales from the increasing customer base.

It must also be obvious that the actual number of a Strictly Limited item produced should be based upon the number likely to sell readily upon release. Therefore there will be an upward trend in the production number of such to ensure collectors have adequate access to these. Artificially low production runs will not favour Collectors or King and Contry as both will miss out on lost opportuntities. The only winners will be those that buy multiples of the short run items to resell on eBay. Andy C started the company to sell to collectors not opportunists.

 

[Pierre]

To survive in business in the long term King and Country need to produce more and better detailed products to attract sales from the increasing customer base.

It must also be obvious that the actual number of a Strictly Limited item produced should be based upon the number likely to sell readily upon release. Therefore there will be an upward trend in the production number of such to ensure collectors have adequate access to these. Artificially low production runs will not favour Collectors or King and Contry as both will miss out on lost opportuntities. The only winners will be those that buy multiples of the short run items to resell on eBay. Andy C started the company to sell to collectors not opportunists.

Producing a set at 1 250 exemplaries, labeling it "Strickly Limited Edition" and selling it at 200,00$ US is not opportunism?

In fact, there is nothing to disagree.

Something big is effectively to happen soon. K&C and dealers will put full of money in their pockets and collectors will spend lot of money in less and less valuable products.

The only questions are: a) how long it will take for the market to fall down? and b) what will be the value of our collections when it will happening?

Pierre.

 

[jazzeum]

I think there's a very fine line between satisfying collectors and King and Country and its dealers to make a nice return. Sales to collectors are what brings in that return. Turning off collectors will lessen those prospects, reducing the prospect of new collectors and slowing growth. Just as in any industry, it's important not to scare of your base of loyal collectors. Without that base, you lose the ability to do new things and to attract new collectors. Now, if that base is not important because you think you can easily replace it, there goes customer loyalty and the reluctance to overproduce since the base won't be reigining you in. The end result? Overproduction and the significant loss of value, etc.

 

[OzDigger]

Producing a set at 1 250 exemplaries, labeling it "Strickly Limited Edition" and selling it at 200,00$ US is not opportunism?

My opportunist reference refered to those people that buy multiple items to resell on eBay, not King and Country itself.

The only questions are: a) how long it will take for the market to fall down? and b) what will be the value of our collections when it will happening?

Most markets suffer ups and downs. If people buy items for their own pleasure (which most of us do) it's not a concern what happens with the prices. Such low price periods would only be a problem for those opportunists that like to buy low and sell high on secondary markets such as eBay.

 

[OzDigger]

I think there's a very fine line between satisfying collectors and King and Country and its dealers to make a nice return. Sales to collectors are what brings in that return. Turning off collectors will lessen those prospects, reducing the prospect of new collectors and slowing growth. Just as in any industry, it's important not to scare of your base of loyal collectors. Without that base, you lose the ability to do new things and to attract new collectors. Now, if that base is not important because you think you can easily replace it, there goes customer loyalty and the reluctance to overproduce since the base won't be reigining you in. The end result? Overproduction and the significant loss of value, etc.

I have no doubt that some people have and will leave the secondary market. However you will find that most of them are people that have bought and sold King and Country products to generate income for themselves. However people that just want to collect the pieces will continue to buy from dealers as well as eBay.

I said before that the downturn in the global economy, together with increased production may see a downward readjustment in the secondary pricing. But surely most of us have woken up that the retired King and Country pieces on the secondary market have been largely overpriced making the whole range less attractive to new collectors. Previous comments and polls have proved that most of the members here collect for their own enjoyment and aren't overly concerned about price fluctuations.

 

[nmrocks]

The "Strictly Limited " title should be based on a simple formula based on a percentage of standard production models.
As for the secondary market, why would Andy want to see money spent on his sets sucked away by an overpriced secondary market instead of his new sets?
My problem is I can't keep up with all the new material and it makes me heart sick.
Ray

 

[Alexdakar]

Maybe it the "Strictly" should have been dropped off and just leave it as "Limited". Then again if Andy's 500% increase in advertising and the new King & Country store in San Antonio take off then 1250 will become strictly limited with hundreds of new customers coming on board.

 

[Pierre]

My opportunist reference refered to those people that buy multiple items to resell on eBay, not King and Country itself.



Most markets suffer ups and downs. If people buy items for their own pleasure (which most of us do) it's not a concern what happens with the prices. Such low price periods would only be a problem for those opportunists that like to buy low and sell high on secondary markets such as eBay.

First, I was really aware that you were not referring to K&C but I did and you did not answer my question. Do I have to repeat it?

Second, if you buy K&C products without caring for their future value, good for you but I don't and it is my pleasure to remind you that even Mr. Neilson referred, in the past, to the value of his products (see his post dated 10-27-05 at 11:25 am on the Toy Soldier Chat.com Forum under the thread entitled Discount Prices).

Third, most of us buy K&C for their pleasure and the value the products; in fact, I do not know a collector who collects items that he pays 100,00$ and knows, that the day after, the said item will worth 25,00$.

Pierre.