A lot of interesting discussions. Also, some frog in the well perspective. I will throw in some thoughts and I think I will get most Australians agreeing. Some can continue to be doubting Thomases. ( that was the sermon reading yesterday ). Please forgive if i get lost in the way but read what you like and please ignore if it is gibberish to you.
The Australians are closest to this part of the world and they can understand well what is happening. That is why I see more of them putting up a different perspective. That is why they understood very well the Chinese labor market and Australia's dependence on the Chinese consumption for raw materials. The Australians and us Overseas Chinese in Asia are getting the first few waves of rich overseas Chinese spending here. If I walk into a Dunhill or Armani shop today, it is likely that the salesman are serving the rich PRC Chinese.
Cost
The cost today and in the future will continue to be a challenge if and as production continues in China, especially for the very skilled. I have been visiting China since 1993 and since 2000, there is a huge influx of foreign companies manufacturing there. Any CEO will shut down in US and move functions over to China as it is the in thing to keep his job. The challenge is that the skilled labor pool cannot keep up. So, I will not be surprised if a good painter decides to do something else if it pays more. Money talks here, if you understand that "religion" is non existent for many years. Please do not be naive, they will switch jobs or make career switches. Why would any painter care less whether you get one more well painted figure. If however, you are talking about very unskilled labor, this will continue to exist as there are still inland cities.
This is not just a toy soldier issue. However, the recent economic downturn barely helps ease skilled labor cost in China. In fact, it seem to only impacts labor outside of China. Those in the US will know too well.
Valuation of toy soldiers
I believe it will go up for those in the recent years since you cannot buy retired ones at the same price. Try making MG003 again and price it at the same resale point. Will there be a profit? Economics suggest that the price that you see on say a MG030 is from remaining inventory, unlikely from a fresh build.
Again, in the secondary market, it is relative to what number of sets is available for sale and the demand at that point. Also, some people are listing them as not available for Ww shipping, or will ship in UK or US only. What are you then expecting? When you restrict your demand pool, the net you cast is limited.
The nice thing is the production rates are not as high as say Marvel, DC, Star Wars, Hot Toys. Those are just fads.
Shipping cost is actually your biggest enemy in the secondary market. eBay also takes a cut of the shipping. Remember that in the end, in the secondary market, the price of the item is what the buyer finally paid for plus shipping to his home country, not what the bid ended at. At some point, your buyer cannot commensurate between the item value and the shipping cost. There is a breaking point.
But for the very old early stuff such as AN that are priced at Dimestore levels already, it will only be chased by the purist. Why? These have reached a plateau. If some new guys come in for the hobby due to the recent nice sculpts and color, he will find the older stuff cannot match at all or fit to his collection. One or two lucky ones will get their items sold to a new rich millionaire's son. To some of them, these prices are no big deal. But, it is a case of right time, right place.
Currency and Exchange Rate
The RMB is pegged. If not, it can be worse than this. The HKD is already weaker than RMB. The USD, Pound have taken a beating past years. The Euro is still relatively high. The AUD and SGD are all riding on overseas funds coming over making them relatively strong. In fact, the AUD is bloody high. So, past years have benefited collectors in some countries and detrimental to some others.
That said, I still cannot understand why the real price differences in UK and Europe versus the rest of the world. Very puzzling. Plus Vat, it is crazy.
Knowledge of history or of movies
I believe this is another important part to the hobby catching on amongst new collectors especially in the rich of China. Let us not forget that most have a good knowledge of their internal history but not of the outside world and even a campaign like OMG (oh my gosh.. Lol). The cultural revolution did happen and there is an impact. Also, most have parents with a trader background. Thus buying the Gucci, Rolexes, Bimmer, Merc are more important for them now. These can be easily reflected to their peers. Toy soldiers cannot be shown off but one day when it can, it will take off.
The lines that will catch on first will be stuff like Streets of HK, Imperial China. They know these. But, they do not necessarily buy these in US or UK. If you go to Gettysburg, you get started and pick up Civil War toys, not SOH or IC...
Pricing
I cite two examples since I am familiar with them.
Why is it that in Hifi, some are priced $10k, some $5k and some $200? Is there a increase in value in terms of sound proportionate to the price? Answer is no. But someone will buy it if it is exclusive enough and he has the money. That pool of buyers of course is narrow.
In guitars, does a Brazilian rosewood which cost $50k sounds 50 times better than one of lesser woods and less intricate inlays? Same thing, some collector will pick this because there are less than ten made.
There is always a price point for each segment of customers and if enough exist to make sense, a biz and product will exist to service it. The production numbers will just be less for premium products and at some point you and me have to say that is not mine, e.g. The Warbirds, the $50k Martin Brazilian Rosewood guitar signed by Eric Clapton, that $20k Reference Turntable.
Finally
So, we are all asking for OMG. And it was no for many years. And then now it gets crowned with "P" products, P perhaps standing for pent up demand perhaps. We will see how it goes.
As to whether these "P" gets snowball all over other ranges, I of course like you hope not. But, what I already have, I do have enough in my collection to enjoy substantially already.
i also know that if everything moves on to "P", something else will come by to take its place. So, I wouldn't worry too much. There are stakes on both sides. When there is a market gap for something in the $30 to $40 range, something will come and fill it. Or K&C will plug up the gap. Such is life. I learn my marketing knowledge from the Americans and Europeans. I am just regurgitating back to you.... Have a great week ahead!
Chris
) and would not contemplate working at this for the price that those painters receive; I don't believe any on this forum would either. The dynamism of China's economy is not within our control, but please spare a thought for the workers without whom the product would not exist. Do take a 'glass-half-full' approach; the problem will cease to exist. Like all good economists, consider continuing your level of investment rather than the number of items that investment buys. As the discussion shows, we are all in positions of relativity because of relative differences in the value of currency from country to country - just apply the same principle to market forces within China and peace will reign.