Current affairs - North Korea (1 Viewer)

Sentaapua

Sentaapua

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Just wanting to raise a little high level discussion and hear the thoughts of other members, all of which are highly knowledgeable of military conflicts, strategy and world history, about the today's news of North Korea's probable miniaturization of a nuclear warhead, and president's Trump's statement "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen... he has been very threatening beyond a normal state. They will be met with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before"... What's next best strategically sound move in your opinion if Kim Jung Un continues his current rhetoric, and, most of all, nuclear tests and technical advancements?
 
In a nut shell the only one who can possibly prevent a devastating war is China. The latest round of sanctions may look good on paper (as Russia and China voted with the rest of the security council) but it will not change North Korea's behavior. China must pull the plug on North Korea's energy imports and their exports. At the same time the US must open a channel to negotiate directly with North Korea and somehow find a compromise to give North Korea and Kim a face-saving out to stop its Nuclear program. China also must be reassured that we will not look to reunite the Koreas and be willing to move out our forces and missles if North Korea relents.

That said it is doubtful that a diplomatic solution is in the cards so the red line is now drawn with Trump's latest proclamation (which I think was a mistake) and another test fired missile or nuclear test will set the war in motion.
Unless all the analysts are wrong a war could mean millions of deaths in the Koreas. The costs of rebuilding South Korea alone will be in the trillions and could set off a market crash as well.
If the North fires at the US mainland and God forbid lands one than we would possibly nuke them off the map and then who knows how China will react and the environmental consequences.

A terrible situation but Im open to hear some unexpected solution.
 
nysoldiers said:
In a nut shell the only one who can possibly prevent a devastating war is China. The latest round of sanctions may look good on paper (as Russia and China voted with the rest of the security council) but it will not change North Korea's behavior. China must pull the plug on North Korea's energy imports and their exports. At the same time the US must open a channel to negotiate directly with North Korea and somehow find a compromise to give North Korea and Kim a face-saving out to stop its Nuclear program. China also must be reassured that we will not look to reunite the Koreas and be willing to move out our forces and missles if North Korea relents.

That said it is doubtful that a diplomatic solution is in the cards so the red line is now drawn with Trump's latest proclamation (which I think was a mistake) and another test fired missile or nuclear test will set the war in motion.
Unless all the analysts are wrong a war could mean millions of deaths in the Koreas. The costs of rebuilding South Korea alone will be in the trillions and could set off a market crash as well.
If the North fires at the US mainland and God forbid lands one than we would possibly nuke them off the map and then who knows how China will react and the environmental consequences.

A terrible situation but Im open to hear some unexpected solution.
Click to expand...


A very good analysis of the present situation...North Korea is indeed a 'rogue state' run by, since its formation, a family of despots with serious and dangerous delusions of grandeur and power...for all their neighbours and even their few friends!

China holds the key and the chain that keeps this rabid regime in power...If they really want (China that is) to be a true world power then they have to play their important part in bringing regime change in NK...and some peace and stability in that region.

Living and working in this part of the world I have more than a passing interest in what goes on in North Korea...and elsewhere in Asia.

Best and hopeful wishes, Andy.
 
Agree with most stayed above, however the north doesn't have to hit the mainland USA for us to go big guns. In my opinion, they just have to hit Guam or pillau and it'll be game over
If they strike South Korea, I don't know how forcefully we attack. We will, but will that be cause for us to use nuclear weapons? Not sure
 
I wondering if we have any bomber groups in Guam, such that North Korea would make a threat on that island. Bomb Guam (not Nuke) then a conventional assault on South Korea, which is only 30-miles from the DMZ. Any nuke action anywhere, would be returned in kind. Can you imagine the military plan that is taking place at the Pentagon right now? I agree with NYsoldier that a face saving exit strategy for North Korea is paramount. Now I got to figure out an exit strategy for my 401K.
 
John McCain warns Trump: Don't threaten North Korea unless you are ready to act.:p
 
I spent a year of my life on the 'Z posted at the Joint Security Area (JSA)/Camp Greaves. I have spent the past 26 years trying to understand why I was there and have come to my own conclusions, some of which I will share below. Not many, if any, of you may know this but my curiosity did lead to me pursing an MA in Strategic Intelligence with a focus on NK studies from the American Military University.

First off- anyone wanting to understand the situation should read "The Two Koreas" by Don Oberdorfer- incredible read.

The irony of this entire geopolitical situation is how eerily similar it is to the events of 1914. You have two small countries that are slapped in the middle of a world power crossroads- between China and Russia on one side and then the US and Japan on the other. I believe the US has stood by the South and, in their own way, the USSR did as well- even though their way of standing by lead to the Korean War. China is the keystone to this entire affair- and yes, it is long since time for them to flex their diplomatic muscle and call for an end of all of this. Do I believe we are going to war, no, not at all- why? China will not allow it. They understand the calamity that would rock the entire peninsula and the global markets. They simply have far too much to lose.

Frankly, I respect- not admire- respect- Kim Il Sung- the "Dear Leader" who was installed as the first leader of the North. He was an incredible guerilla fighter who led an underground resistance effort against the Japanese during WW2. I think any American can respect that- unfortunately, I also believe he was probably our best bet to ever achieve a diplomatic solution towards unity but the Communists got to him first and we got Syngman Rhee. Since then, the megalomania has spiraled out of control- and we are where we are today. Kim Jong Un, being in his early 30's, has more diplomatic experience than I ever will- but he is still a man in his early 30's and will suffer from all the faults that come with being at that stage in his life. Unfortunately, he is the leader of a cracked out regime that appears to be poised to be incredibly dangerous.

Do I believe we are going to go to war? No- why? Many reasons, some of which- well, we have the bet intelligence community on the planet. I guarantee that they knew well before yesterday of where NK stood in all of this. The "War plans" were created back in 1947 and have undergone drafts and revisions ever since. We are ready to go strategically- physically- I'm not so sure- our equipment and gear took an incredible beating during the War on Terror- as did our troops- and our civilians. A nuke going off on our soil will motivate everyone initially to go to war- but the decade or so it will take if we have to rebuild the peninsula on our own will unsettle an American populace already fatigued from years pissing around with Bin Laden- a nuke set off on Guam, not sure it would be such an easy sell since the average American doesn't understand the strategic importance of Guam.

The DMZ took all of 45 minutes to determine- Russia and the US drew up the "DMZ" based upon many factors, one of them being cultural- the DMZ does have cultural significance to the Koreans, before WW2. Believe it or not, back then, the North was the industrial powerhouse and the South was the breadbasket. Our economic policies have created and sustained SK as it's own nation (that and our Air Force bombing the North into the stone age in 1952 :)). South Korea is really an incredible story of one nations ability to overcome the obstacles and, working in tandem with the US, created a regional powerhouse in their own right. They are LIGHT years ahead of their northern brethren- the cost to assimilate the two cultures back into one people is incalculable.

China has often gotten involved simply because they don't want to deal with scores of Korean refugees jumping the border should armed conflict break back out. There isn't a "face saving" solution available to the North- the US will not accept any tarnish to their reputation so close to Russia, nor would China or Russia be willing to do the same. The only thing to do is appeal to the logic of Un and show him that if he decides to push the button, it would be all over for him. The escalation into war is a no-win situation for him that ultimately gets him tossed.

Whatever the outcome, my heart goes out to all the Korean people. They treated me very well when I was there- this entire predicament is a failure of geopolitical super power diplomacy and millions of Koreans have lived their lives under the umbrella of this mistake- each superpower backed their proxy nations, but no one has been able to find the peaceable solution. In my opinion, the peoples of Korea will only find peace once China, the US and Russia come to terms on how to rebuild Korean. Once they do, it's a matter of putting 2 in the chest and 1 in the head of Un and picking up the pieces from there. It would be a political blindside of epic proportions.
 
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Gents,

Great discussion about the Koreas! I spent a couple of short tours in "The Land of the Morning Calm" which is long for cold or hot as hell. My pops was a Korean War Vet and only talked about the weather there and nothing else. In fact, every Vet I have met who did time in Korea only talks about the weather. But, now there is the discussion of how great the food is. Which, by the way is incredible and most of you know I love the eats of all the countries I have visited and Korea is high, high on the list.

My point is, it takes ALOT of food to feed our Military, the ROK forces, and we know our military marches on it's stomach. The NPRK Army is minimal in the food department and worse for the general public. So, if we skip the bombs, rhetoric and diplomacy the bottomline is that NPRK cannot sustain a long drawn out War with anybody because they are a starving country. Check out any hidden camera youtube video's and what you will see is shocking. So, while ole Fat Boy Slim Un is pointing at stuff for photo ops and talking about whipping the US Imperialist off the face of the earth, he should stop feeding his gullet and learn how to make MRE's for his military. But he won't in the name of Juche..

Now on to my weather point. Yes, the south is the bread basket and man o man is the rice flowing! It has been a long standing order that the time to attack is in the winter. Why? Because the rice paddies are frozen over and the ground is hard for tanks, troops and supplies to roll over. That is why we have so many JTF Exercises in the late fall and early spring. AND, since only 3% of North Korea is covered by roads, they are logistically trapped to only be able to attack in the Winter season. Hence, Winter is coming and so does the saber rattling.

So, North Korea will forever be a hermit state until something significant changes history and will have to come from with-in. Until then in the South..break out the Kimchi, Bulgogi, Kalbi ribs (ooh the ribs) and OB Beer! In fact, let's get loose and put down a Soju ammo bowl and visit the Golden Dragon in Songton City!

John from Texas
 
Well this has got more serious since NK shot a missile OVER Japan. What other country would put up with that? I've heard/read that Kim is actually very rational - having the capacity to hit the US with nukes, would give him the sort of 'security' that has largely kept the US and Russia from going toe-to-toe. However, what he doesn't seem to get, is his process of getting there, makes it more likely it'll blow up in his face.
To me it boils down to - bad war now or worse war later. Easy for me to say that though, I don't live in Seoul. However, I do live in a coastal city which could easily be a target of submarine launched missiles - which I gather NK can do.
Pragmatically, a pre-emptive strike to kill Kim and his craziest generals is the way to go. Or better, get China to do that and allow them to insert a more controllable puppet.
 
Larso,

I think the only submarine the North Koreans have is the USS Pueblo that is on display at on the Potong River...not far from the "Victorious Fatherland Liberation Museum". I could be wrong, but I have not keep't up with the Janes reports of the North Korean brown water Navy. You know what...I remember in the 90's they used a small sub to send in some Agents to infiltrate the South. If I recall correctly, they only caught like 3 out of the 12. I used to know more about the North Korean military capabilities, but it has been years since I researched it.

Un, like Trump is a man who has never been told "No". They have both been surrounded by "yes men" all their lives. More so, Un because of his family lineage. He has a big ego and the more "victories" he has (missile launches, the Sony pictures hack) the more he becomes embolden to take more risks...because no one has told him "No". So, we got two guys with HYUGE ego's who have their fingers on the button. This is one hell of a toxic mix when it comes to Heads of State. We know Trump thinks of Un as a clown and has a history of Asian xenophobia. You couple that with his jingoistic policy towards North Korean and we left with really no options for diplomacy. So, I don't know.

There is one thing I know will quell this situation...FOOD. Think of Un "like a Fat kid loves cake" we need to "Make Taco's not War"

John from Texas
 
It looks like NK has about 70 submarines but they're mostly small and for raid launching. Some might be able to hunt surface ships but I don't think they have much range - though surely enough to harrass the Japanese and any reinforcements coming from the US, Australia, Europe etc. It sounded like only the newest one is intended to have a missile launching capability and it will be fitted with nukes when they are deployable in that format.
 
NK is China's attack dog and fully supported and propped up by that regime. China's making it's own moves in the region including fortifying and building artificial Islands in the South China sea and you'd have to be concerned how two US modern navel vessels have been rammed recently.

There is a great deal going on in the region that main stream media barely mention or conveniently ignore.
 
I have been to South Korea 50 or 60 times for business starting in the early 70's until about 6 years ago.
I still have contact with several former business associates who were high level executives in the electronics
industry. Over the last few weeks I have spoken to two of my friends about the current situation with the North.
Of course they agree that China has the most leverage with N. Korea but dreads any chance of unification with
the South which would put a US ally and perhaps US troops on their border. Still they doubt that China wants
an extensively nuclear armed N.Korea and certainly not a nuclear war on their border.
The people of South Korea, however, fear a war with N. Korea more than a nuclear armed N. Korea. They see
the "mutual destruction" scenario with the US and Russia as a possible model for them and the North. They have
no doubt that a war now with the North will kill millions of people and destroy their economy for many years.
The country is divided about US involvement and intentions. Some think the US wants to stop N. Korea at their
expense. Others want more US weapons (missile defense systems) and many want the US to try harder on the
diplomatic front.
They do realize that if N. Korea attacks the US (Guam or other territories) or its allies that all out war will occur.
Most South Koreans are going about their lives but a growing number are preparing for a possible war. Food stores
are selling out of certain necessities, some wealthy Koreans are relocating or sending their children to schools in other
countries and more fall out shelters are being constructed.
Another interesting note is that large Korean manufacturers have been investing in and expanding their overseas
operations.
Lets all hope for a peaceful resolution.
 
Spoke with one of my friends from South Korea this morning (Sunday night their time) and the news is getting worse. With this last H-Bomb test the odds of a military action have increased dramatically.
Some panic is starting to set in and food markets are busy and some gas lines forming. There is doubt that China will do enough to truly pressure N. Korea and even if they cut off energy supplies it will not necessarily stop their Nuclear program. Some Koreans think that America should agree to pull out its troops and stop the war games as a way to get the North to negotiate. Others think it might be time to arm South Korea and Japan with nuclear weapons. This would certainly get China's attention.
Right now according to my contacts there is more than a 50/50 chance of military action.
A very dangerous situation with many repercussions !
 
When will the governments of the world understand that you can't appease maniacs.N.Korea will only stop if we withdraw and I'm sure in no time they would take over the south.After Hitler you think the leaders of the world would learn.
Mark
 
My dear friends,
When I started this thread unfortunately I knew that the perspectives of this showdown were real...
The fact is that North Korea is a thermonuclear power with the theoretical capacity of delivering such capacity far away in the globe. You can`t take any chance at bluffing against that. In addition to the overwhelming North Korean capacity of a conventional shelling on Seoul and other northern Sounh Korean cities.
The only perspective of containing this threat is a decisive Chinese action. There is nothing the US can do on any diplomatic front to change this. The South Koreans are pretty much conformed on a nuclear peninsula, as far as they can also have the nuclear deterant, which depends upon a US ok.
Unfortunately it seeems to me highly likely that the Mad (mutual Assured Destrction) doctrine will soon be the rule in the Korean Peninsula, meaning that a nuclear powered North Korea Kim regime will extend its rule... I don`t think the Chinese will welcome this outcome, but although an unstable and nuclearized neighbor, it is better on their radar than the perspective of a unified capitalist US ally competitor in the Korean Peninsula.
All said, what seems to be the outcome is Kim- Jun-Ung having a nuclear arsenal guaranteeing his survival in power, and China and the rest of the world swallowing helplessly at this fact...
Only if in the future internal disssent arises will the end of the regime be a plausible perspective.
So, quite frankly, and unfortunately, this is a settled scenario. Too bad the resolved attack on this nuclear program wasn`t decided previously, when there was still time to avoid it!
Let us all get used to Kim-Jung-Un`s threats and dramas. The guy is in his 30`s. And I`m affraid he is here to stay for a while...
 
Everybody has known this is coming. This is not new news. Pakistan has the bomb and they're not the most stable. Bluster will not solve this problem. We're probably going to have to accommodate ourselves to the reality of the situation because there are no good alternatives here.
 
jazzeum said:
Everybody has known this is coming. This is not new news. Pakistan has the bomb and they're not the most stable. Bluster will not solve this problem. We're probably going to have to accommodate ourselves to the reality of the situation because there are no good alternatives here.
Click to expand...

What a cavalier statement disguised as being realistic, but you might be right. The time to have done something was long ago in the Clinton, Bush and Obama administration.

I wonder if the Obama Iran Nuclear Weapons agreement was just the postponement of the inevitable global nuclear weapons status for any nation (good or bad) desiring leverage and respect gained by fear.

It didn't take the last 3 administrations much courage to kick tough decisions down the road does it, but the consequences are dire. If we acted decades ago the cost in lives would have minimal but now the costs could be Seoul and Japanese devastation and death.

Now we'll just have accept nuclear war one day. It didn't have to happen.

Kind of like that old "Fram oil filter commercial". If you don't change your oil filter regularly, then later not if, but you'll have to pay a lot more to rebuilt your engine.


Trouble is that nuclear war is a whole lot more devastating then a new rebuilt engine job. So time to build your bomb shelter and stock up. The US could arm S. Korea and Japan with defensive weapon and nuclear weapons.

I'm mad about this and not fatalistic nor cavalier about this. It didn't have to be this way,

Carlos
 
I wasn't trying to be cavalier but the conventional wisdom is that the decision has been kicked down the road. You could probably say that the fault stretches back to the Eisenhower administration for failing to reach a peace treaty with NK. The problem with saying that it's been kicked down the road is China; any decision for an armed response we could have made could have led to a war with them.

China is concerned that the NK regime could collapse, which would lead to people streaming into China and at the same time lead to a united Korea a la Germany, a prospect they do not want. They are quite happy to have the peninsula divided and NK be an irritant to the US and SK. Unless you convince them that it's not in their best interest to support the NK regime, there will be no change in the present situation. A nuclear response would probably invite a Chinese response and mean the end of civilization. There are no good options.
 
jazzeum said:
I wasn't trying to be cavalier but the conventional wisdom is that the decision has been kicked down the road. You could probably say that the fault stretches back to the Eisenhower administration for failing to reach a peace treaty with NK. The problem with saying that it's been kicked down the road is China; any decision for an armed response we could have made could have led to a war with them.

China is concerned that the NK regime could collapse, which would lead to people streaming into China and at the same time lead to a united Korea a la Germany, a prospect they do not want. They are quite happy to have the peninsula divided and NK be an irritant to the US and SK. Unless you convince them that it's not in their best interest to support the NK regime, there will be no change in the present situation. A nuclear response would probably invite a Chinese response and mean the end of civilization. There are no good options.
Click to expand...

Doing “Nothing” or “Status Quo” is by default, choosing an option. Make China pay a heaver price for their poor decisions that made this possible. Why should we and our Asian allies alone, bear the brunt and consequence of living in fear and uncertainty?

Time to arm South Korea and Japan with provocative and overwhelming defensive weaponry (“iron dome” defensive technology, if it exists) and offensive nuclear weaponry. Yes, I am say to escalate the pain and reflect fear back to our advisories. Economic sanctions are a joke and have little effect but placating the public into believing something is being done…”Kick the can down the road” yet again!

Does the fear of “mutually ensured destruction” realities apply to China as it did for the Soviet Union? Let’s find out!

Besides, why shouldn’t China deal with the hardships they’ve created (e.g. failed N. Korea and refugee issues) like other nations?

If we don’t do this now, Iran is next and that outcome would be “baked in” caused by precedents being made in Korea today and an ineffectual and expedient US/ Iranian Nuclear Arms treaty. The time for leadership and courage has come.

Carlos
 
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