Electoral College - scenarios (2 Viewers)

[Combat]

Hopefully this doesn't fall into the verbotten category - just a nifty tool on CNN that allows you to make state-by-state predictions for the upcoming presidential campaign and see how the various scenarios work out. Lots of interesting possibilities including Maine deciding the election as one state that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the winner of that state.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

 

[Spitfrnd]

Hopefully this doesn't fall into the verbotten category - just a nifty tool on CNN that allows you to make state-by-state predictions for the upcoming presidential campaign and see how the various scenarios work out. Lots of interesting possibilities including Maine deciding the election as one state that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the winner of that state.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Interesting game.

 

[Combat]

CNN has updated the map - note this is interactive so you can play with the various scenarios: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

When you put all the safe Obama and McCain states aside it comes down to this:

Obama - must win in Michigan, Minnesota, PA, and Wisconsin (all which are trending toward him) to have a chance.

McCain - must win in Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, and Missouri (all which are in play). Also if a state like VA or Nevada goes against him he may be in trouble.

 

[jazzeum]

I saw in today's Times that McCain has pulled out his campaign organization from Michigan, conceding the state to Obama.

 

[Combat]

I saw in today's Times that McCain has pulled out his campaign organization from Michigan, conceding the state to Obama.

I was surprised that McCain passed on Romney for that reason. A win in Michigan would have been huge for McCain. Now if Obama wins either Ohio or Florida, that will put him over the top in almost any realistic scenario. Obama can still win without Florida or Ohio, but McCain must have both.

 

[Combat]

The latest polling numbers are brutal for McCain. I'm a republican - so don't take that the wrong way.

 

[Njja]

I have read that many people are telling the polls what they believe they

want to hear, intending to do something different with their vote.

It should be an interesting evening.

I am still waiting for one of those "Polls" to give me a call.

Now that would really be something!

 

[noli-poli]

I have read that many people are telling the polls what they believe they

want to hear, intending to do something different with their vote.

It should be an interesting evening.

I am still waiting for one of those "Polls" to give me a call.

Now that would really be something!

I am guilty of that. I see myself siding "The One" on most conversation but voting the other way. Why? I am not telling...not pc

 

[Njja]

You shouldn't have to, its your vote!

I'm sitting by the phone....still waiting for the poll guy to call!

Here's something to think about!

I have been registered with Zogby Polls for several years. Every couple of

weeks they send me a long survey for my political opinions.

They know which party I support, and what my issues are.......funny for

the last 6 months no surveys!

You build up a pool of folks, then only choose those you know will reflect

the opinions you are supporting.

We will have to see what America really thinks on election day!

 

[Combat]

I don't believe there is an intentional bias in most polls. They could still be wrong as many were in the last election, but for other reasons. For example, the pundits talk about the "Bradley effect" that many poll respondants will say they are going to vote for a black candidate and then do otherwise in the voting booth. The theory is they don't want to be perceived as "racist" by indicating they are selecting a white candidate over a black candidate. I doubt that is a significant factor this year. The math indicates that Obama has about 260 electoral votes in the bag - he is not going to lose California, NY, Illinois etc. He needs 270 to win. So McCain has to win virtually every state that is still in play. About ten states that include Colorado, Nevada, NC, VA, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Indiana. Ohio and Florida are must wins under any scenario for McCain. If he loses any of those, the math won't add up.

 

[jazzeum]

CNN has an electoral map up last night before the debate showing 264 solidly or leaning to Obama. There are seven states in play such as Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, etc. He basically just has to pick off one of those states. I have said this since mid summer but I think it's going to be a landslide and I see no reason to change that prediction at this point. If the markets stabilize, I think that will help McCain but how much, who knows?

 

[Combat]

Things will probably tighten up a bit toward the end. A lot of Obama supporters are young and/or first-time voters who are notorious for not showing up on election day. With that said, the last few weeks have been brutal for McCain. Hard to imagine a worse case scenario for him. It reminds me of the Bush-Clinton election in '92 when the economy went south and Bush just could not make up enough ground at the end.

 

[Combat]

Using the latest CNN polling for each state, Obama would win 318-220 in the electoral college (and that is giving Ohio to McCain which they have as a dead heat). Most surprisingly, they have Obama ahead by 10+ points in Virginia! A solid Republican state in national elections.

 

[Combat]

McCain has thrown in the towel in Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. So he must win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and PA. He is down 10 points or more in PA. That would give him 270 even if he loses Missouri and Nevada.

 

[jazzeum]

That sounds like a tall order, considering he's down 10 points in Pa, with less than two weeks ago. I'm surprised he's thrown in the towel in Colorado. I also hear Nevada is competitive, which hasn't gone Democratic in god knows when.

The credit markets have apparently stabilized a little bit. Wonder what difference that may make.

 

[L Flowers]

So tired of hearing about the polls. The only thing that matters is how people actually vote on November 4th. I always think of Truman holding the newspaper claiming "Dewey defeats Truman" up after the 1948 election when I hear of all these polls and their data.

 

[4th Hussar]

OK I am jumping into a subject that I have ignored but is this forum the right place to debate politics ? I think this is especially germane sine our illustrious moderator seems to have a interest in a particular candidate.

 

[jazzeum]

I express and have not expressed any interest one way or the other and as far as I can tell this hasn't been political but looking at different scenarios, which is always interesting no matter who you favor.

 

[4th Hussar]

I express and have not expressed any interest one way or the other and as far as I can tell this hasn't been political but looking at different scenarios, which is always interesting no matter who you favor.

I disagree with your claim of being neutral politically (same goes for MS NBC and FOX) but more importantly how the heck does this relate to Toy Soldiers ?

 

[1879fanatic]

I disagree with your claim of being neutral politically (same goes for MS NBC and FOX) but more importantly how the heck does this relate to Toy Soldiers ?

Brad has not expressed any other view than that of neutrality. read the posts.
This does not relate to toy soldiers, only their generals.
The polls taken and adjusted on an hourly basis are much less neutral, from a pscyhco-statistical view of the uninformed masses. Mike