Market has Stumbled and Fallen! (1 Viewer)

[Njja]

A short while ago I started a thread about folks flooding Ebay with product.

Not just listing items.....which of course is fine......but listing items already

listed by other sellers, in some cases by several other sellers. I always found

this practice rather odd.....lets say you had a DD39 listed and several bidders

were interested and bidding. How would you feel if someone else suddenly

listed their DD39 for .99? Your bidders lose interest since another is available

for .99. You item brings a lower price, and more then likely so does the next

one when hopefully someone lists yet another the moment interest heats up

for his.

Having sold items for quite sometime I always check and never list an item

when others are available, I have lots of time, and I appreciate the ability

to see what an item I am considering listing has brought in a current auction.

But thats just the way I see things! As I stated in my previous thread the

market has taken a fall, in part due to the current economic situation, and as

I fear also due to the reckless onslaught of merchandise tossed on Ebay.

I see fewer and fewer unique items offered as people have little interest in

giving classic pieces away. The same old items are now offered by three or

four different people all at the same time......kind of like six people fishing

from the same hole wondering why no one is catching anything!

I hope this combined with the upcoming economic situation does not hurt

the overall marketplace but I fear it might. I find myself only looking on

occasion at the items now offered on Ebay since I haven't seen anything

truely of interest in over a month.

I am awaiting my last order 2 items, and don't expect to be placing any

further ones probably until spring, or a vast improvement in the economic

situation........which I also don't see any sign of happening!

Just curious in other collectors opinions on this topic!

 

[maddadicus]

A short while ago I started a thread about folks flooding Ebay with product.

Not just listing items.....which of course is fine......but listing items already

listed by other sellers, in some cases by several other sellers. I always found

this practice rather odd.....lets say you had a DD39 listed and several bidders

were interested and bidding. How would you feel if someone else suddenly

listed their DD39 for .99? Your bidders lose interest since another is available

for .99. You item brings a lower price, and more then likely so does the next

one when hopefully someone lists yet another the moment interest heats up

for his.

Having sold items for quite sometime I always check and never list an item

when others are available, I have lots of time, and I appreciate the ability

to see what an item I am considering listing has brought in a current auction.

But thats just the way I see things! As I stated in my previous thread the

market has taken a fall, in part due to the current economic situation, and as

I fear also due to the reckless onslaught of merchandise tossed on Ebay.

I see fewer and fewer unique items offered as people have little interest in

giving classic pieces away. The same old items are now offered by three or

four different people all at the same time......kind of like six people fishing

from the same hole wondering why no one is catching anything!

I hope this combined with the upcoming economic situation does not hurt

the overall marketplace but I fear it might. I find myself only looking on

occasion at the items now offered on Ebay since I haven't seen anything

truely of interest in over a month.

I am awaiting my last order 2 items, and don't expect to be placing any

further ones probably until spring, or a vast improvement in the economic

situation........which I also don't see any sign of happening!

Just curious in other collectors opinions on this topic!

To some, it might matter, but my collection is for my personal enjoyment and not for its market value..never was..Michael

 

[thebritfarmer]

I take it you are talking about these products being available to the US only? If you have an item that is available from UK, Canadian, German, Asian, Australian seller all listed at the same time I don't see a problem. I am hardly going to buy from Australia when the Canadian seller has the same item. (This is of course depending on the price.)

 

[Njja]

I take it you are talking about these products being available to the US only? If you have an item that is available from UK, Canadian, German, Asian, Australian seller all listed at the same time I don't see a problem. I am hardly going to buy from Australia when the Canadian seller has the same item. (This is of course depending on the price.)

Items I am referring to are all multiple listings from US sellers.

 

[Njja]

To some, it might matter, but my collection is for my personal enjoyment and not for its market value..never was..Michael

To me this has little or nothing to do with the value of anyones collection. I

am more concerned about the marketplace in general, the availability of both

new products, and unique original pieces for the collector.

I do not have any personal interest in the value of my King & Country

Collection, I do like a strong marketplace since it attracts unique retired

pieces which provide collectors the opportunity to add them to their

collection.

I also respect other collectors, who might be concerned with the value of

their present collection in these trying economic times.

 

[vandilay]

To Be Honest I,d be more surprised if the market didn’t take a considerable hit ,Anything that involves discretionary income is at risk in tough times .
[I don’t know about the US but here classic cars ,holiday homes ,boats you name it prices are on the downward slide as people unload their luxurys]

At present the market is probably getting the double whammy with a reduced number Of collectors and increased supply as some people drop out altogether [or simply cut back on ranges collected ] and sell their sets .

 

[HistoryfortheAges]

eBay or any auction site for that matter shouldn't be controlled by sellers or buyers. Prices for items will be what they are, at the time they are put up for auction. It's a competitive environment for both buyers and sellers. People have their reasons for buying and selling that cannot be controlled. Yes, this hobby very much concerns discretionary spending and prices will be determined by the market. There is an old saying "Whatever goes up must come down..." Prices cannot possibly rise for extended periods of time without some setback unless incomes are rising alongside with prices. For those savy collectors, this is the time to pick-up at a reasonable cost that elusive figure that you always wanted. I am not going to count on my collection as a retirement fund but, more as retirement fun! I am still years away from that though...

 

[jazzeum]

Further to John's point about unique items being offered on ebay, I've seen very little of the glossy stuff lately. As the market has dried, so has sellers' interest in putting on some very rare stuff when they know it might not bring the price they desire.

 

[tdubel]

To add, I think the rise of current prices has not helped. I am not complaining, more just a fact. Look, the new King Tiger costs as much or more than 67 and 71, which I believe were 2 limited Kings. Go figure.

That being said, patience still brings a price, you just have to set the price and accept nothing less.

TD

 

[maddadicus]

John, are you talking about the mistake of many new sellers to flood the market with a glut of similar items at the same time? Then I agree with you, that it is a recipe for oversupply to a fixed demand, leading to a glut that will always drive pricing down..? Personally, I believe that KC has peaked, as a retired collection market. As others have stated , too many current items at too great a quanity, at too high an everyman's price, to a limited number of collectors ,cannot be a good sign for those, who do look at KC, as an investment. Michael

 

[Njja]

John, are you talking about the mistake of many new sellers to flood the market with a glut of similar items at the same time? Then I agree with you, that it is a recipe for oversupply to a fixed demand, leading to a glut that will always drive pricing down..? Personally, I believe that KC has peaked, as a retired collection market. As others have stated , too many current items at too great a quanity, at too high an everyman's price, to a limited number of collectors ,cannot be a good sign for those, who do look at KC, as an investment. Michael

Yes, and I agree it would appear that over supply has once again reared its

ugly head. As I stated eariler I always enjoyed a strong secondary market

simply because it encouraged people to offer long retired items to other

collectors. Over the years I have picked up many wonderful items released

and retired before I began collecting. A strong secondary market encouraged

people to offer these items to other collectors through Ebay or shows. If

they appear to have little value they may never be offered, and just tossed

out in a garage cleaning or left to deteriorate in an attic or basement.

The situation we now have is a difficult one for dealers & manufacters....how

many items do you now produce, and how many should a dealer stock?

It all begins with the manufacters.....over production may lower your

per/item cost......but it can also destroy your market place, a lesson that

never seems to be learned.

A long time ago I suggested a market study which would provide the

manufacters with key information such as their customers median income and

funds available for their participation in the hobby. This suggestion was

laughed at with comments like "dealers know their customers and provide

more information then any survey".......yeah right. How many dealers really

know the financial position of their customers? How many keep track of the

average yearly ticket, or sales ticket, and contact their customers to plot

trends? I believe they have their hands full just making ends meet.......and

without market information how does a manufacter decide how many of an

item to produce and at what price?

I hope we continue to have a nice selection of items produced to add to our

collections, even though many will be more selective in their purchases.

 

[Louis Badolato]

I think the "glut" on e-bay and the drop in prices are simple reflections of our horrible worldwide economy. When things get tough, people who overspent, or who otherwise find themselves short, dump their collections. When people dump collections, and buyers are short on cash anyway, the greater supply, and the absence of demand, dictate lower prices. Plus, a lot of the high prices on international ebay can be traced to buyers from europe taking advantage of the exchange rate to buy collectibles being sold in the United States. Now the euro is also suffering, so these buyers are out of the equation. In a couple of years, when the economy is (hopefully) on the upswing, the secondary market for K&C will be better than ever, especially in light of those of us who are unwilling to spend now, and will be looking to get the items we felt forced to pass on today. At least that's the way I see it.

 

[Gideon]

totally agrree john,

i do careful searches to make sure and i search completed to see what the time has been since a listing of similars items ended.

 

[Njja]

I think the "glut" on e-bay and the drop in prices are simple reflections of our horrible worldwide economy. When things get tough, people who overspent, or who otherwise find themselves short, dump their collections. When people dump collections, and buyers are short on cash anyway, the greater supply, and the absence of demand, dictate lower prices. Plus, a lot of the high prices on international ebay can be traced to buyers from europe taking advantage of the exchange rate to buy collectibles being sold in the United States. Now the euro is also suffering, so these buyers are out of the equation. In a couple of years, when the economy is (hopefully) on the upswing, the secondary market for K&C will be better than ever, especially in light of those of us who are unwilling to spend now, and will be looking to get the items we felt forced to pass on today. At least that's the way I see it.

Louis well put, its certainly a strange turn of events when even you curb

your purchases! It looks like its going to be a difficult year for many dealers

to handle!

 

[Njja]

totally agrree john,

i do careful searches to make sure and i search completed to see what the time has been since a listing of similars items ended.

Gideon, you always do well with your auctions......and its certainly not by

accident! I hope your new shop is doing well, and its not to cold up in Philly!

My hose actually froze yesterday! Thats not supose to happen in

Atlanta!

 

[Warrior]

Louis hit the nail square on the head; the buyers who have been driving the retired bus were mostly from Europe. Now that the pound and euro are in the toilet valuewise vs the dollar, the purchasing has slowed down, plain and simple.

Why are many of the same items being offered up on Ebay? Newly retired sets were made in larger quantities than older ones were, so there are more newly retired items out there and less older retired items. Many of the older ones are in the hands of collectors who are not willing to sell them, so they are rarely seen now on Ebay.

What you do see are the newly retired items from the past several years, you know, the ones that were scooped up by speculators thinking they would hold onto them for awhile and then flip them on Ebay.

I guess they all got the same idea at the same time and now the market is flooded, not to mention specualators are probably sitting on quite a few retired items and need to sell them to raise money for other things.

Supply vs demand comes into play too; if there are a lot of say DD60 sitting out there but the demand for that item is low, you as the seller are up a creek without a paddle...............

 

[Steven Chong]

... It all begins with the manufacters.....over production may lower your per/item cost......but it can also destroy your market place, a lesson that never seems to be learned ...

Production numbers is a delicate balance for K&C ... make too few and collectors who can only afford to buy a few sets at a time complain about early retirements that force them to pay a higher price on the secondary market ... make too many and collectors complain that the collectible value is affected. As Andy has repeatedly posted, someone will always be unhappy.

... How many keep track of the average yearly ticket, or sales ticket, and contact their customers to plot trends? I believe they have their hands full just making ends meet.......and without market information how does a manufacter decide how many of an item to produce and at what price? ...

In introducing Helen Mok Sargent as K&C's Managing Director at his last few talks, Andy has mentioned that Helen has installed programs that allow K&C to track sales on a daily basis, allowing K&C and Andy to see trends like what items are doing well and what items have slowing sales. Except for some direct sales, K&C's customers are dealers, and Andy has also mentioned that K&C are constantly in communication with them to see what items are doing well.

 

[Vezzolf]

Well all "good" things must come to an end.....the practice of collecting for speculation and then selling at inflated prices on e-bay will continue to decline......does anyone have any multiples they are willing to unload for 50% of retail????:

 

[jazzeum]

Before we jump to the grand conclusion that all prices are in the toilet, I think you need to separate pre-2005 or 2006 from post-2005 or 2006 releases. Certain items like the old 88 (WS 57), Winter Panther (WS 23), WS 25 Tiger (just sold for $451) or Krupp Truck (WS 37) are still doing quite well. Newer retired releases are not. The older ones for which there is limited supply will still do ok (maybe not as great as before but still a good return) whereas on the newer ones, you might as well just put them away for a couple of years.

 

[VanguardFC007]

Maybe the best idea is to treat ebay like the stock market. With everything in the proverbial toilet, buy low, store it for a couple of years, and when the market rebounds sell high.