Russian Front, WW2 (2 Viewers)

[Mitch]

Al...

Fair points about all the divisions etc that would have been able to come west but, for me as I said it would have just been a longer harder fight but, as where in the what if area which, is often more fun. had germany not attacked USSR then many of the divisions would not have had the vast combat experience they did so, arguably they would not have been as good in the field and, I remember reading that there was more Luftwaffe power in the west than east and we know how poor they were and how easily we commanded the air.

We would still have gone down the path of bombing germany as we did and, Harris may have had his way and bombed even more aggressively than he did. I think we would also not have seen as much innovation from the german tank factories as most of the tanks the tigers panthers etc were derived from fighting the russian T 34 KV I/II etc so, we could easily argue that the germans would have been using primarily the Panzer IV in the battle field.

For me no USSR would have just meant a possibly longer definately more costly in terms of casualties but, at the end victory

Its ironic this debate as I am normally the one saying how well the germans did against numerically superior forces.
Mitch

 

[fmethorst]

You could make the argument that that without the eastern front the German armed forces wouldn't have needed to be so large. Many of the units raised later on simply wouldn't have been required. This applies in both scenarios, no attack and a 1941 Soviet collapse. Of course, this also means that many of the original units that were bled white in the east would have been in better shape. In addition more of the experienced troops from the campaigns of 1939-1941 would have still been around.

 

[lancer]

Hi Mitch. Find myself wondering how long Russia could have stayed out of the conflict anyway, considering how much Stalin and Hitler hated each other and their respective ways of life. Hitler always had his eyes east as he wanted all that room for expansion of the German people and all those fields of oil and wheat. War between those two countries was a sure bet, just a matter of when. Also, Russia was caught between two aggressive powers in Germany and Japan, and was not going to be able to sit out. Threats from east or west would have drawn them in eventually. Don't know how much of an actual threat Japan could have been to Russia in the long run but Japan could have made a true two front war interesting for Russia. If I remember correctly, wasn't it Siberian troops moved from the quiet east front with Japan that made the difference outside of Moscow? Now, what if those troops had been tied down against Japan? -- Al

 

[Currahee Chris]

Did moscow fall to the nazis?

 

[Currahee Chris]

Al- no doubt about it, any war in Europe will rope Russia in at some point in time. The Eastern Front was going to happen, the question was when- for the reasons you allude to.

Japan and Russia fought in 1905 pretty much to a stalmate. Japan's adventurism into Russia, in my estimation, probably wouldn't have happened for 10 years later- ie 1950 or so- if they had any intention of jumping on Russia- why not go in 1941 with Hitler and squeeze them? Russia and Japan have historically stayed out of each others affairs- even in 1945 after VE day, Russia was reluctant to declare war on Japan- it was mostly an act on paper.

 

[lancer]

Did moscow fall to the nazis?

Nyet. Germans did get to the outer suburbs but it was their highwater mark. -- Al

 

[Combat]

I think there is good evidence that Stalin expected the Germans and western allies to bleed themselves dry - as they did in WWI. When the Germans were sufficiently weakened, he would have attacked. He was caught by surprise by the French collapse. Began to realize the Germans were a more formidable opponent than expected and that he had less time to prepare than originally anticipated. He did everything possible to buy time which would allow the Brits to fight the Germans. That included not provoking the Germans by allowing sufficient preparations for attack. He was caught by surprise and unprepared when the Germans attacked and may have gone into shock or expected to be arrested for a period of weeks. Fortunately for him, space and logistics allowed time for the Red Army to recover from the initial disasters and make a stand at Moscow.

I do think Hitler was right in identifying the Red Army as the primary objective and not geographic points like Moscow and Leningrad. However, his generals were fixated on Moscow and undermined that strategy. Much of our judgment of the campaign is based on post-war memoirs written by the German generals casting as much blame as possible upon Hitler and excusing their own errors. The German generals were overly optimistic at the beginning of the campaign and overly pessimistic at any set back. Hitler's order to stand firm in the winter of '41 probably saved much of the German army and allowed a continuation of the war. However, there wasn't much anyone could have done to salvage the situation after the initial gamble had failed.

 

[lancer]

Al- no doubt about it, any war in Europe will rope Russia in at some point in time. The Eastern Front was going to happen, the question was when- for the reasons you allude to.

Japan and Russia fought in 1905 pretty much to a stalmate. Japan's adventurism into Russia, in my estimation, probably wouldn't have happened for 10 years later- ie 1950 or so- if they had any intention of jumping on Russia- why not go in 1941 with Hitler and squeeze them? Russia and Japan have historically stayed out of each others affairs- even in 1945 after VE day, Russia was reluctant to declare war on Japan- it was mostly an act on paper.

Japan got a dose of Russian abilities at Nomonhon, early in the war. They thought better of any more serious entanglements with the Russians from there on. The Russian declaration of war so late against Japan was cynical, wanting to reap the benefits of victory in the far east without the losses or division of effort, that an earlier declaration would have required. -- Al

 

[lancer]

I think there is good evidence that Stalin expected the Germans and western allies to bleed themselves dry - as they did in WWI. When the Germans were sufficiently weakened, he would have attacked. He was caught by surprise by the French collapse. Began to realize the Germans were a more formidable opponent than expected and that he had less time to prepare than originally anticipated. He did everything possible to buy time which would allow the Brits to fight the Germans. That included not provoking the Germans by allowing sufficient preparations for attack. He was caught by surprise and unprepared when the Germans attacked and may have gone into shock or expected to be arrested for a period of weeks. Fortunately for him, space and logistics allowed time for the Red Army to recover from the initial disasters and make a stand at Moscow.

I do think Hitler was right in identifying the Red Army as the primary objective and not geographic points like Moscow and Leningrad. However, his generals were fixated on Moscow and undermined that strategy. Much of our judgment of the campaign is based on post-war memoirs written by the German generals casting as much blame as possible upon Hitler and excusing their own errors. The German generals were overly optimistic at the beginning of the campaign and overly pessimistic at any set back. Hitler's order to stand firm in the winter of '41 probably saved much of the German army and allowed a continuation of the war. However, there wasn't much anyone could have done to salvage the situation after the initial gamble had failed.

Good points, Combat. One always has to read commanding generals memoirs with a bit of suspicion as writers usually always have an agenda to advance, ie., defending their decisions and/or deflecting blame. Over the last 20 or so years there has been much new scholarship on the Russo/German conflict that is outstanding. Authors such as David Glantz have opened up a lot of info. Great stuff to read. -- Al

 

[Currahee Chris]

The German generals were overly optimistic at the beginning of the campaign and overly pessimistic at any set back. Hitler's order to stand firm in the winter of '41 probably saved much of the German army and allowed a continuation of the war. However, there wasn't much anyone could have done to salvage the situation after the initial gamble had failed.

Interesting position, not going to say I agree/disagree as I do not know enough of the Eastern Front to offer a good discussion though it would seem to go against the generally accepted theory that Hitler was rather meddlesome with the German high Command. I guess my question would be- did any of the German high command have a contingency plan to fall back on if the blitz did not work (which is what happened)?? It seems to me that even in the dead of winter, they were pressing an attack, up until the weather made it impossible. Since it appears to me that they did not have a contingency plan in place, it would make the argument that Hitler got in the way less valid and lend creedence to your position.

 

[lancer]

Interesting position, not going to say I agree/disagree as I do not know enough of the Eastern Front to offer a good discussion though it would seem to go against the generally accepted theory that Hitler was rather meddlesome with the German high Command. I guess my question would be- did any of the German high command have a contingency plan to fall back on if the blitz did not work (which is what happened)?? It seems to me that even in the dead of winter, they were pressing an attack, up until the weather made it impossible. Since it appears to me that they did not have a contingency plan in place, it would make the argument that Hitler got in the way less valid and lend creedence to your position.

Good question, Chris. I have never read anything about a viable contingency plan in case the initial blitz failed. I do not think failure was ever really considered as a possibility and certainly the Germans were not prepared to fight into the Russian winter. The ultimate failure of the blitz was a close run thing, outside of Moscow. There was a tipping point reached where the Russians were out of men, down to their last available lines of defense and the Germans were ready to punch through. The Germans, however, simply were played out. They ran out of men and didn't have the necessary reserves for the one final push. I read somewhere that the Germans couldn't find even one regiment to push through the final Russian defense, which is, evidently, all they would have needed. The lines then settled in, the Russian reserves showed from the east and the counterattacks soon began. The Germans had no plans in place for maintaining such an extended line of defense, in the dead of the Russian winter. They had counted entirely on a rapid victory and didn't even have proper cold weather gear or SOP's for winter fighting that would keep their weapons systems working in the brutal conditions. A rather serious series of omissions, all in all. -- Al

 

[Currahee Chris]

....I read somewhere that the Germans couldn't find even one regiment to push through the final Russian defense, which is, evidently, all they would have needed.

I agree though admittedly, it may have proved futile. If they could have collected a regiment and broke through, the Russians would've counterattacked and recovered without much problem. A reigment would have been really really hard pressed to hold ground at the tip of that spear.

 

[lancer]

I agree though admittedly, it may have proved futile. If they could have collected a regiment and broke through, the Russians would've counterattacked and recovered without much problem. A reigment would have been really really hard pressed to hold ground at the tip of that spear.

Good point. If they couldn't find a regiment to make the break, what were they going to use to exploit the break? Would have been interesting, as I don't think the Russians had anything to make a counter-attack with, at that point in time and location. It was close. Hard to believe so much could come down to the lack of one regiment, but the history of war is full of such examples. -- Al

 

[Combat]

I don't think the taking of Moscow would have altered the outcome in a significant way. It certainly didn't do Napoleon much good. The Russians had moved their industrial capacity beyond the reach of the Germans and had basically evacuated much of the government. There was no indication that the Russian government would have disintegrated the way it did in WWI. That's the only way the war could have ended favorably for the Germans. The battle for Moscow would have been a difficult one and the Germans were at the end of their effective capabilities as it was. In all likelihood the Russians would have taken it back in short order. The Russians were also adept at feeding in just enough forces to prolong a struggle and exhaust their antagonist while building up reserves for a massive counter attack. That's likely what would have happened if the Germans had taken Moscow. It did anyway. Taking the city might have been a greater disaster to the Germans (ala Stalingrad) than not getting there.

 

[Currahee Chris]

Hitler alerts the US and UK that he is going to invade Russia- do we stop him??

 

[lancer]

Hitler alerts the US and UK that he is going to invade Russia- do we stop him??

How and why? Hitler rarely listened to anyone's advice but his own and I don't see why he would have had any reason to advise his enemies of his plans, anyway. Heck, the US or GB would have ratted Hitler's invasion plans out to the Russians in a NY minute. Never interrupt your foe when he is making a fatal error. -- Al

 

[Combat]

Hitler alerts the US and UK that he is going to invade Russia- do we stop him??

The UK had good information that Hitler was going to invade Russia. They made several efforts to inform Stalin. However, Stalin believed this was an attempt by the British to provoke a war between Germany and Russia. He also had information from other sources in Japan of the actual date. All of which he discounted as a plot to entice him into conflict with Germany. Churchill had every incentive to want a German invasion of Russia. So it's unlikely he wanted to stop it even if he could.

 

[Currahee Chris]

He also had information from other sources in Japan of the actual date.

That's right- I do recall hearing something about that now. Which is interesting as I guess it shows how strong the alliance was with Germany and Japan huh??

Good points about Churchill too. My question was posed in a subjective sense to see if the belief is out there that the US/UK actually cared about the Russians or it was simply an alliance of neccesity- which I believe everyone sort of conceedes it is.

Put another way, say Hitler approaches the US and UK and offers to cease with attacks on Britain and further westward expansion and invades Russia- does the West then say nothing?? I can't imagine Churchill could politically get away with that but I gotta think FDR might have- given the US sentiment in summer 1941.

The point here is that it would seem as if the Western powers believe that in order for the global balance of power to remain, Russia has to remain free. Good, bad or indifferent, to some extent, the US/UK was fighting/dying for Russian "freedom" as the Russians were for us as well.

 

[lancer]

The UK had good information that Hitler was going to invade Russia. They made several efforts to inform Stalin. However, Stalin believed this was an attempt by the British to provoke a war between Germany and Russia. He also had information from other sources in Japan of the actual date. All of which he discounted as a plot to entice him into conflict with Germany. Churchill had every incentive to want a German invasion of Russia. So it's unlikely he wanted to stop it even if he could.

Great point, Combat. I had forgotten about Stalin's paranoia in regards to his intelligence sources. He did not believe Hitler would betray him and the treaty they had signed, figuring, as you say, it was deliberate disinformation trying to drag him into the war. Despite all the warnings, Stalin only believed what he wanted to believe. -- Al

 

[Combat]

Another complexity is that Britain declared war on Germany for invading Poland, but basically ignored the Russian invasion of Poland in 1939. There is probably an interesting discussion there. Each country basically makes decisions that are in its own interest. And not just to do good in general.