Worst intelligence blunders in history (1 Viewer)

[Currahee Chris]

Hey fellas:

I have always been blown away by some of the intelligence failures in world history. Just curious what some members on the forum think were some of the worst. Me:

1.) The failure of the KGB to foresee the collapse of the Soviet Union;
2.) North Korea's launch in to the South- July 1950;
3.) the Nazi's failure to identify the exact location of the DDay landings;
4.) The Allies failure to react to the intel which foretold the Bulge offensive.

Any other major blunders out there?? I am quite sure there are- Pearl Harbor is starting to look like some people might have dropped the ball.

 

[Mitch]

Read a good book on this subject
Military intelligence blunders by John Hughes-Wilson.

I would add the munich agreement
Mitch

 

[Gideon]

9-11. The intelligence was out there. Flight schools reported, an "out of the box" FBI agent who made the connections fired, etc. The information was out there and could have been brought together very easily. Or maybe it was brought together and just ignored or worse.

It still boggles my mind that it happened and happened with relative ease.

 

[lancer]

Interesting thread, Chris. I would also pick the D-Day intel failure. Would like to add four WW1 intel failures. First, by France and her failure to (or not caring to) discover the German plan of war in 1914, what is called the Schlieffen Plan. This almost led to complete disaster out of the gate. The second is French, also. This was the failure to recognize all the signs leading up to the February 1916 German offensive at Verdun. Again, real close to total disaster. The third failure was German and it is the failure to percieve the adverse effect of the unrestricted U-boat campaign on American neutrality (ultimately a fatal failure). The fourth is German and that was the failure to discover and take advantage of the April-May 1917 French Army mutinies. All four failures were of enormous scope and influence, and sort of unbelievable failures to read the signs or underestimating the enemy. -- Al

 

[lancer]

Had to add the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and Hitler's declaration of war on the US after the Japanese attack. -- Al

 

[thebritfarmer]

I think the Battle at Isandlwana could be included (although not sure if it was an itelligence blunder). The outcome was certainly less than victorious.

 

[Currahee Chris]

Had to add the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and Hitler's declaration of war on the US after the Japanese attack. -- Al

Were those intelligence failures or just bad decisions?? I have always been lead to believe that everyone told the powers that be on both sides that both ideas were bad.

 

[lancer]

I think the Battle at Isandlwana could be included (although not sure if it was an itelligence blunder). The outcome was certainly less than victorious.

A classic case of not knowing your enemy and thereby tremendously underestimating his ability. One of my favorite battles to study.:salute:: -- Al

 

[Currahee Chris]

9-11. The intelligence was out there. Flight schools reported, an "out of the box" FBI agent who made the connections fired, etc. The information was out there and could have been brought together very easily. Or maybe it was brought together and just ignored or worse.

It still boggles my mind that it happened and happened with relative ease.

I know this discussion could get heated (perhaps not). For the most part, I agree with you, From what I understand of the 9-11 situation several agencies had good intelligence on the situation it was just that everyone didn't communicate- sort of like sitting five people at a table to do a jigsaw puzzle and then sectioning each person to a corner of the room to try and figure out how it goes together.

The trick is determing when intelligence moves from the threat assessment phase and becomes actionable. The unfortunate thing about intelligence is that everyone knows when it fails- you have a PH, 9-11, etc but very very few people actually know when it works out- when good intel work saved the day. That usually isn't discovered till years or even decades after the incidents took place.

 

[glossman]

Interesting thread.....just to name 2 MI blunders off the top of my head.

The Fall of Singapore (February 1942)

Yom Kippur (October 1973)

Raymond

 

[lancer]

Were those intelligence failures or just bad decisions?? I have always been lead to believe that everyone told the powers that be on both sides that both ideas were bad.

These were definitely bad decisions but bad intel regarding American abilities, intentions, and national determination were directly involved in the decisions. Neither the Japanese or Germans bothered to get to know their enemy. This same hubris applies to the US failure in relation to the Japanese, as this led to PH. US intel failure about Japanese intentions and abilities were gigantic in relation to PH. -- Al

 

[Louis Badolato]

All good points, including not seeing 9-11 coming.

I would add the Soviets not seeing the Nazi invasion (Operation Barbarossa) coming.

 

[Rob]

Can I offer Arnhem?. And how about how the British totally ignoring intelligence that told them not enough Germans were being killed in their dugouts by the pre attack week long bombardment on the Somme in late June 1916, does that count????

Rob

 

[Rob]

How about the Germans swallowing false intelligence that their V1's were overshooting London and as a result they adjusted the range with the outcome that many fell well short of their target in Southern England.

Rob

 

[4th Hussar]

It is painful to even think about but our pre-invasion of Iraq intelligence or at least it's interpretation was not outstanding. Before somebody starts looking for a rope, I believe we did the right thing for the wrong reasons.

 

[lancer]

All of these examples, and good ones they are, begs the questions "are the intel reports being ignored, misinterpreted, swept under the rug so as not to upset plans, or is it a type of arrogance towards the enemies abilities? All the examples contain some form of these errors. Beyond the obvious rejoinder "consider the source", why aren't intel reports given the attention to at least prove or disprove. The great "what if" once again rears it's ugly head. -- Al

 

[Arnhemjim]

The failure of the WWII German intelligence services to discover that the entire Enigma cryptographic system had been compromised. The failure of the WWII Japanese intelligence services to discover that the “Purple Code” had been compromised. The result of which gained strategic Allied victories at Normandy and the Battle of Midway, both of which were incisive. The failure of the United States intelligence services to take so long in discovering CWO John “Johnnie” Walker, Ron Pelton and Richard Hanson. Walker alone could have caused the defeat of the United States in any major military confrontation with the Soviet Union. As it was he directly contributed to the loss of USAF B-52's and their crews over Vietnam, the comprehensive compromise of three cryptographic systems, the compromise of United States Navy SSBN and ASW operations on a world-wide basis, and the compromise of United States Navy contingency war plans. The pathetic part of the matter is in each of these three cases, there was long term evidence available, and if counter-intelligence protocol and training had been properly implemented, each would have been discovered and apprehended a lot sooner; and in Walker's case allowed the bas---d" to live. In my humble opinion.
Arnhemjim

 

[Currahee Chris]

I was waiting for you to sound off sir

Rob- I think ArnhemJim gave a pretty solid analysis on Arnhem in the british generals thread

Mitch- I sawa book by Keegan which addressed intel blunders. It was written several years ago but I failed to buy it.

4th Hussar- no offense taken my friend.

 

[lancer]

The failure of the WWII German intelligence services to discover that the entire Enigma cryptographic system had been compromised. The failure of the WWII Japanese intelligence services to discover that the “Purple Code” had been compromised. The result of which gained strategic Allied victories at Normandy and the Battle of Midway, both of which were incisive. The failure of the United States intelligence services to take so long in discovering CWO John “Johnnie” Walker, Ron Pelton and Richard Hanson. Walker alone could have caused the defeat of the United States in any major military confrontation with the Soviet Union. As it was he directly contributed to the loss of USAF B-52's and their crews over Vietnam, the comprehensive compromise of three cryptographic systems, the compromise of United States Navy SSBN and ASW operations on a world-wide basis, and the compromise of United States Navy contingency war plans. The pathetic part of the matter is in each of these three cases, there was long term evidence available, and if counter-intelligence protocol and training had been properly implemented, each would have been discovered and apprehended a lot sooner; and in Walker's case allowed the bas---d" to live. In my humble opinion.
Arnhemjim

IMHO, the last line in each of these men's bios should read "shot at dawn". -- Al

 

[Rob]

One of the greatest intelligence blunders must rest with the German intelligence bod Beppo Schmid who fed the German high command absurd figures of destroyed British Aircraft during the Battle of Britain, and thus gave Goering and the Luftwaffe a totally false impression of how near they were to victory.

Rob