KC Secondary WWII Market: How are values holding up? (1 Viewer)

[nmrocks]

Boys, If there's a recovery it's not coming from the planned "Stimulus". Not to get off the subject but I read this this morning, made a lot of sense.

http://www.technewsworld.com/edpick/66204.html?wlc=1234800154

Please don't get mad, not trying to change the subject, but it does have relevence to the topic.
Ray

 

[tdubel]

Hi,

As a seller of a few of the aforementioned items, it is what it is. I had a few duplicates from over the years, so I decided if I get my price, fine I will sell, not looking to set the market, not looking to give it away either.

One comment, the Kettle Drummer is a hot item if you can keep it listed on ebay! It has sold between $500 and $600 repeatedly. I wonder how many were really made as you just do not see them and it is quite unique.

Some surprises are the oriignal Rommel Greif, in my opinion, that is the best Rommel vehicle by far, but that is my opinion. It will sell for a high price again I imagine.

I think you also got to remember (at least I do this) if I sell something on ebay, I inflate the price I ask (my accept price) by 25 or so dollars to cover the ridiculous fees. As an individual, I really don't have profit margins, etc to absorb the fees, I just want to sell the item for a price. I also price an item by what I have in to it if I had to buy it on the secondary market. Bascially, I am not out to make a profit nor am I out to give it away, it is what it is, a capital market with ups and downs.

TD

 

[theBaron]

I won't get mad at your reference, Ray, and it has nothing to do with which party proposed the bill, either or whom I support. I didn't agree with the $600 bribe the Bush administration doled out last year, because I don't believe in Keynesian economics.

Most people took that money and used it to reduce outstanding debt (though it was about as effective as a single sandbag against a hurricane, in that regard).

I think we'd be better off having a tax holiday and taking steps to get people out of debt, including allowing people to declare bankruptcy, rather than trying to get lending institutions to continue to lend money as we have in the past 20 years or so, without real regard for qualifications and so, continue the binge. This has been a bubble, driven in large part by relaxation of standards in credit approval, albeit it a bubble that grew slowly and steadily, but a bubble nonetheless, and at some point, it has to burst.

 

[petebuster1]

Lets be honest most these figures aren't really rare and very few become rare i dont know how many k&C of each peice but i think there's enough to go round and by and large i think most are still holding their value or near to it something many cant say,look at corgi,hobbymaster aircraft etc.Most end falling to less than a single K&C figure.
I think K&C will come through this difficult time but how others will fair i dont know.CS (please correct me if i'm wrong) seem to struggle, ive noticed their Tiger tanks still seem pretty easy to get hold of (both here in the UK & tthe U S) even though limited to 100 peices each, i dont think K&C with a limited edition that size would even get to the shelves.

 

[Rutledge]

Some "interesting" stats:

- The US has lost almost 2,000,000 lost jobs in the last three months; Meanwhile, China has lost about 20,000,000!
- China exports have fallen by 17.5% (YOY) and imports by 43%.
- Japan GDP contracted for the third straight quarter, at a -12.7% annual rate, its worst since 1974.
- European banks, with reported coming write downs of 16 trillion pounds, or $25 trillion dollars, are in WORSE shape than US. European banks were more highly leveraged, some at 50:1. (look out below for a falling euro? Note that Europe has no "central bank")
- Nouriel Roubini of NYU estimates US banks losses. at 1.8 trillion while David Rosenberg of Merrill says there could be another $2 trillion
- Some see 51 million job losses around the world by the end of 2009
- Expected S&P 500 earnings for 2009 are down to $28, which at current prices gives it a forward P/E of 30. (historically, S&P P/E has averaged 15/16)

Not saying I know what will happen to the toy solider market. However, it seems the background is not supportive of stable/rising prices for at least another 9 - 12 months.

 

[vandilay]

Some "interesting" stats:

- The US has lost almost 2,000,000 lost jobs in the last three months; Meanwhile, China has lost about 20,000,000!
- China exports have falled by 17.5% (YOY) and imports by 43%.
- Japan GDP contracted for the third straight quarter, at a -12.7% annual rate, its worst since 1974.
- European banks, with reported coming write downs of 16 trillion pounds, or $25 trillion dollars, are in WORSE shape than US. European banks were more highly leveraged, some at 50:1. (look out below for a falling euro? Note that Europe has no "central bank")
- Nouriel Roubini of NYU estimates US banks losses. at 1.8 trillion while David Rosenberg of Merrill says there could be another $2 trillion
- Some see 51 million job losses around the world by the end of 2009
- Expected S&P 500 earnings for 2009 are down to $28, which at current prices gives it a forward P/E of 30. (historically, S&P P/E has averaged 15/16)

Not saying I know what will happen to the toy solider market. However, it seems the background is not supportive of stable/rising prices for at least another 9 - 12 months.

It certainly makes for some sober reading ,The other side of the coin is
even when they manage to right the economic ship , with all the debt being
racked up what will happen to the $US and inflation.
I have no idea but I think the hobby is going to be in for a pounding in the
next couple of years with a shrinking market [that wasent exactly huge to begin with] can it support all the current mfgs?.

 

[Rutledge]

Good question on the mftgs vandilay. Economic darwanism is at play, so only time will tell.

So first massive deflation, then eventually hyper-inflation? That is what some expect from all this "bailout" activity. Either way, its going to be a rocky ride for some time.

 

[Spitfrnd]

Regarding warbirds, the price tag is too high. Unless someone needs some quick cash, regardless of the hit, you're not going to see much of them on there because they're not going to draw the interest.

Well that may be but can you tell me why the K&C Dragoons keep going for over $120? Are they that rare; they are only out of production for 2-3 years right? I wouldn't pay anything near that for them since you can buy a more detailed alternative for that price.

 

[Njja]

Gee, here's a wild thought; maybe the demand has peaked on some of these retired items. How many LAH kettle drummers, Rommel Griefs, Winter Tiger Tanks, etc, etc can you sell? How many collectors are there worldwide who want these items?

How many rare items that are constantly advertised as such are in fact no longer rare. Maybe three, four, five years ago, they were rare, but they aren't anymore.

Maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of the folks who wanted said items now have them.

Seems I recall a phrase from economics 101; supply and demand and maybe we are seeing a case of the supply exceeding the demand.

But hey, what do I know............

..............................................................

All good points, I wasn't offering an opinion, just sighting a few examples and

responding to the thread.

Wait, I'm getting the local address for my "Acorn Office"

 

[Njja]

I hope none of the manufacters, or our dealers are hurt by the current

economic situation. Myself, I have just put in my applications first I applied

for a $2 Million dollar "Acorn" loan to purchase a $1.5 Million dollar Vegas

apartment. Second one is for Engineer position on new LA to Vegas $ 8 Billion

Dollar rail system.

It really makes perfect sense to establish a fast rail route for people to lose

what little money they might have left!

And we were worried!

 

[petebuster1]

Well that may be but can you tell me why the K&C Dragoons keep going for over $120? Are they that rare; they are only out of production for 2-3 years right? I wouldn't pay anything near that for them since you can buy a more detailed alternative for that price.

I know what your saying always puzzles me why some people will pay so much for what imo are the poorer older examples of K&C when there are far better on the market.They are better kept in the box than on a diorama

 

[nmrocks]

I hope none of the manufacters, or our dealers are hurt by the current

economic situation. Myself, I have just put in my applications first I applied

for a $2 Million dollar "Acorn" loan to purchase a $1.5 Million dollar Vegas

apartment. Second one is for Engineer position on new LA to Vegas $ 8 Billion

Dollar rail system.

It really makes perfect sense to establish a fast rail route for people to lose

what little money they might have left!

And we were worried!

I don't see how the fringe players are going to survive, I suspect we'll just stop seeing product from a few of the smaller producers who do this as a second job. This will be difficult for the hobby.

 

[Njja]

I'm afraid its going to be difficult for everyone......course I'll be ok as soon

as my "Acorn" loan comes through.

 

[HAWKEYE]

Maybe there will not be as much doom and gloom as people are predicting, i just saw 3 dutch lancers made by trophy go for $395. There is money out there and who knows, in two years we have another election, things can change, and for the good too. We have to get thru all the negative press. People can only take so much negativety until they revolt and tighten thier bootstraps and turn things round. So here's to prayin for the best

 

[jrsteel]

I'm afraid its going to be difficult for everyone......course I'll be ok as soon

as my "Acorn" loan comes through.

OK we get the point about Acorn, you sit around listening to Limbaugh and Hannity nonsense all day.

 

[Rutledge]

Want some reasons not to give up on K&C as a long term "investment" just yet?

Well:
- If less well established brands do not survive, K&C should benefit
- If the dollar goes to heck in a handbasket after the US Govt creates a trillion bucks it doesnt have, "Hard Goods", especially ones of relative rarity, may appreciate
- If trade barriers are raised around the world, global commerce will slow. Should the US place limits on foreign (esp. chinese) imports, new K&C items could become "rarer than hen's teeth"
- Of course, as time goes by, individual pieces are lost, damaged or destroyed. Those remaining in good condition should rise in value
(Note: This one is a little out there) - IF IF IF confidence in paper currencies erodes to where barter becomes more "fashionable", who knows, maybe the local grocery store will accept 'em as "legal tender"??

 

[Njja]

OK we get the point about Acorn, you sit around listening to Limbaugh and Hannity nonsense all day.

No actually the wife mentioned it to me.....I hope thats ok.

Seem a bit touchy

 

[maddadicus]

No actually the wife mentioned it to me.....I hope thats ok.

Seem a bit touchy

John, I am with you..Where else but in America, can you lie, cheat and steal on your income taxes, and be considered indispensible to our country's economic recovery. Michael

 

[nmrocks]

I will say this, I never believed the down turn was as bad as he Gov't and media said. They are doom and gloom with a purpose... money and control.
As an example, Las Cruces is a reletively small town, even with the housing slump it hasn't changed much here. We went down to El Paso last weekend just to see some new sites you know, went to a resturant pretty busy for 3:00 in the afternoon and my wife wanted to stop by the big mall down there to pick up some makeup. drove around the parking lot for 10 min. before giving up, not a parking space to be had within 200 yds of the doors.
Friday night we tried to go to dinner went to 4 resturants each with hours. ++ wait!
Some bad economy!!!

 

[Vezzolf]

I think that most of us collect K/C for fun and are not concerned about secondary markets as we do not consider toy soldiers to be an investment ......those folks who have horded items to re-sell them well above retail will be fortunate to sell for 10-15% below retail........the party is over........Most people are hurting and are not spending foolishly with unnecessary purchases or blowing hard earned money on over-priced "retired" pieces.........If K/C produces new items of interest; folks will still make purchases...eg.(the "Winter Tiger" will sell).....Speculators will be hard pressed to un-load their doubles and triples......and with K/C prices on the rise their profit margins in the secondary market will be little if any at all.....IMO