Market Place in Free-fall....Look Out Below! (3 Viewers)

[DMNamiot]

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I find that if you do your research then you can make a deal and move on.

Better to look forward then worry about something thats already over.

This is a great point!

The problem I have seen many times in the area I collect is there are some collectors in it who dont do the research and end up paying more than retail for figures that are still being made. I totally understand high prices for items that havent been made for years as long as condition warrents it but I wonder if these buys who dont do the research are causing an artificial increase in some of the marketplace. So I have to ask how do you account for them?

Anyway its an interesting discussion to be sure

Dave

 

[damian]

Is part of the problem not trying to sell wine before it is mature. Now the old sets are truly rare. They were made in small numbers and have been sold out for years. Please remember even the now legendary winter Tiger and 88 did not sell out overnight. I still have a brochure from a dealer who was retiring and selling his stock lisiting the winter 88 fro 90 USD. For something to become a classic takes a bit of time. Some of the current sets have been produced in quite a large number (1000) and have not been fully absorbed by the market yet.
So hoping to make a killing on them may be a bit unrealistic. But in 10 years time when hopefully the market has grown (The new French forum is an indication that the interest and ethusiasm is there) and a whole lot of newbies are asking us old hands what it was like back in the old days of 2010 when Andy was bringing out the first Kriegsmarine sub and WB doing the original matt Sudan series, then some of the current sets may do really well.
If you cannot sit out a recession then you have planned badly.

 

[Njja]

This is a great point!

The problem I have seen many times in the area I collect is there are some collectors in it who dont do the research and end up paying more than retail for figures that are still being made. I totally understand high prices for items that havent been made for years as long as condition warrents it but I wonder if these buys who dont do the research are causing an artificial increase in some of the marketplace. So I have to ask how do you account for them?

Anyway its an interesting discussion to be sure

Dave

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Dave, thats a great question, and I'm sure that happens quite a bit.

I would say that no single transaction sets a price. To get an accure

picture you really need a history of prices so you can determine what other

collectors have paid for a particular item. You would be suprised how close

the prices are and how you can see them trend as the item sells.

There are other factors to consider such as location, I have seen fairly

common items sell for a premium going to other areas of the world where

regular dealers might be limited.

 

[Njja]

Is part of the problem not trying to sell wine before it is mature. Now the old sets are truly rare. They were made in small numbers and have been sold out for years. Please remember even the now legendary winter Tiger and 88 did not sell out overnight. I still have a brochure from a dealer who was retiring and selling his stock lisiting the winter 88 fro 90 USD. For something to become a classic takes a bit of time.

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Very true, and I'm sure lots of the newer collectors will be the old hands in

a few years as you pointed out.

I wish I had an answer about the volume of merchandise currently being

offered on Ebay. Its hard to read the term "rare" and keep from

laughing.

 

[Gideon]

Gentlemen - there are differing opinions on the subject, but let's remember that they are just that: opinions!

We've covered this ground many times before. There are differing strategies and motivations for selling. In an open marketplace, each seller has a right to do as they want. If an item sells for a low price, that may concern people holding the item in a collection, but it's a joy for the person buying it. Two sides to the same coin.

This isn't a bad topic for discussion as long as we can respect those who disagree.

Peter, John is a fairly spiky personality with much passion.

This is how he talks with me and others over the phone, how he "speaks" on the forum, etc.

He's a long time collector with tremendous insight, as with many on the board.

I, personally, never find his comments insulting - he is responding as he does and that's about it. You gotta know the guy to understand this I suppose.

Maybe we should all have like a little dog tag attached to our signature that say things like "I'm passionate but I'm not insulting you" or "I'm OCD so I can't help making 10 million requests for things I'll never buy"... Know what I mean?

 

[Njja]

Peter, John is a fairly spiky personality with much passion.

This is how he talks with me and others over the phone, how he "speaks" on the forum, etc.

He's a long time collector with tremendous insight, as with many on the board.

I, personally, never find his comments insulting - he is responding as he does and that's about it. You gotta know the guy to understand this I suppose.

Maybe we should all have like a little dog tag attached to our signature that say things like "I'm passionate but I'm not insulting you" or "I'm OCD so I can't help making 10 million requests for things I'll never buy"... Know what I mean?

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Spiky am I..........

Ah, he knows me to well!

No offense intended, after all I bought my first King & Country set from

Gideon, and spent many pleasant hours in his great shop on Sullivan Street!

 

[Winston]

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There are other factors to consider such as location, I have seen fairly

common items sell for a premium going to other areas of the world where

regular dealers might be limited.

This is where the recent rise of the internet is changing the market for the future. Sourcing and locating that elusive set that once was sitting gathering dust on a shop shelf has disappeared. Retail dealers are able to advertise their stocks, and communicate with collectors worldwide. So the myth that all pieces are rare has been dispelled.

Too often the hoarding of popular pieces, and the suqsequent illusion that a piece is in demand and short supply. Has created a false market. Where manipulation has caused a market premium. A good example is the Tunisan Tiger which is still to be found at a reasonable price if one is patient. Though some people in their quest to obtain the piece have paid well above true market value.

 

[Njja]

This is where the recent rise of the internet is changing the market for the future. Sourcing and locating that elusive set that once was sitting gathering dust on a shop shelf has disappeared. Retail dealers are able to advertise their stocks, and communicate with collectors worldwide. So the myth that all pieces are rare has been dispelled.

Too often the hoarding of popular pieces, and the suqsequent illusion that a piece is in demand and short supply. Has created a false market. Where manipulation has caused a market premium. A good example is the Tunisan Tiger which is still to be found at a reasonable price if one is patient. Though some people in their quest to obtain the piece have paid well above true market value.

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Very true, especially with all the modern pieces. The term "rare"

certainly is overused. The eariler pieces are certainly difficult to find, and

perhaps "rarely" will be available once they have become part of a

collection.

The most important tool a collector can have is knowledge, so his decisions

are made with thought, along with passion.

 

[Rutledge]

Though some people in their quest to obtain the piece have paid well above true market value.

"True Market Value" (TMV) is the price somebody is willing to pay for something at that specific time. What is the price of something that sells one month at $100 and the next month at $500? Whatever somebody is willing to pay at the time, that IS the "true market value" at that time.

Now, whether somone over or under pays RELATIVE to the most recent transaction, that is their decision.

The market price of a toy soldier is completely subject to the law of supply and demand. More demand equal higher price, and vice versa. If someone buys a toy soldier at a higher price than it went for recently, they must believe it is worth that. If someone decides to sell at a low price they must have their reasons for doing so.

Obtaining reliable pricing information in an opaque and illiquid market such as toy soldiers is difficult at best. The surest way is to offer something for sale and see what bids you get. If not to your liking, you can choose to accept what is, or hope for better luck next time. Of course sometimes time is of the essence and the seller chooses a "bird in the hand versus two in the bush".

At the of the day the toy soldier market is much too fractured and illiquid for there to be definitive market prices. Houses, stocks and bonds, gold coins, all these can be comparatively shopped with great ease. The price of a out of production toy soldier, not so much.

Individuals should have the right to buy and sell their toy soldiers at whatever price they like without taking criticism from the market at large. It is nobody's business but theirs.

Dealers who are going thru ebay to undercut set price lists from manufacturers is another story. But that is also is between those two parties.

After market toy soldier prices fluctuate, sometimes wildly. Those who seek to profit from such an unstable and thinly traded marketplace must accept the risk that the market will not conduct itself as they would like. As we all know, there is no return without risk, even in the happy land of toy soldiers.

 

[Phantom Warrior]

"True Market Value" (TMV) is the price somebody is willing to pay for something at that specific time. What is the price of something that sells one month at $100 and the next month at $500? Whatever somebody is willing to pay at the time, that IS the "true market value" at that time.

Now, whether somone over or under pays RELATIVE to the most recent transaction, that is their decision.

The market price of a toy soldier is completely subject to the law of supply and demand. More demand equal higher price, and vice versa. If someone buys a toy soldier at a higher price than it went for recently, they must believe it is worth that. If someone decides to sell at a low price they must have their reasons for doing so.

Obtaining reliable pricing information in an opaque and illiquid market such as toy soldiers is difficult at best. The surest way is to offer something for sale and see what bids you get. If not to your liking, you can choose to accept what is, or hope for better luck next time. Of course sometimes time is of the essence and the seller chooses a "bird in the hand versus two in the bush".

At the of the day the toy soldier market is much too fractured and illiquid for there to be definitive market prices. Houses, stocks and bonds, gold coins, all these can be comparatively shopped with great ease. The price of a out of production toy soldier, not so much.

Individuals should have the right to buy and sell their toy soldiers at whatever price they like without taking criticism from the market at large. It is nobody's business but theirs.

Dealers who are going thru ebay to undercut set price lists from manufacturers is another story. But that is also is between those two parties.

After market toy soldier prices fluctuate, sometimes wildly. Those who seek to profit from such an unstable and thinly traded marketplace must accept the risk that the market will not conduct itself as they would like. As we all know, there is no return without risk, even in the happy land of toy soldiers.

The return is in the enjoyment, not trying to make a profit.

Terry

 

[Rutledge]

The return is in the enjoyment, not trying to make a profit.

Terry

Exactly as it should be in this HOBBY -- IMHO.

 

[Gideon]

Summing up all of this thread makes me wonder if we shouldn't have created "collection backed securities", insured he!! out of it through AIG and sold it all over the world.

Similarly, we can offer:

Mignot/Lucotte Backed Securities
King & Country 1st Stalingrad White German Vehicle backed securities
Oval Based Antique Britians Securities
1:43 Corgi & Dinky Backed Securities
Matchbox Regular Wheels & Moko Lesney Backed Securities
Etc

We could have all made a bundle.

 

[Gideon]

Exactly as it should be in this HOBBY -- IMHO.

You know, all kidding aside, the money generated by older retired sets going through the roof has actually sustained a large part of the hobby as it stands at this very moment.

Much of that money was directly poured right into the hobby again. Dare I say that Figarti is likely bathing in money generated by appreciated retired K&C sets as is K&C itself.

When something like that can happen, I think thats a wonderful thing.

If it didn't happen one has to wonder what wouldn't be produced right now. Just sayin'.

 

[ecuriel]

Summing up all of this thread makes me wonder if we shouldn't have created "collection backed securities", insured he!! out of it through AIG and sold it all over the world.

Similarly, we can offer:

Mignot/Lucotte Backed Securities
King & Country 1st Stalingrad White German Vehicle backed securities
Oval Based Antique Britians Securities
1:43 Corgi & Dinky Backed Securities
Matchbox Regular Wheels & Moko Lesney Backed Securities
Etc

We could have all made a bundle.

Asset Backed Securities require future income stream. What you describe above is nothing more than speculation.
I'm just adding to my thread count.

 

[Gideon]

Asset Backed Securities require future income stream. What you describe above is nothing more than speculation.

No, seriously, there's future income and lots of it. There's no roof to what these things can hit. I mean, shoot, the companies are still producing, for the most part any ways...

 

[ecuriel]

No, seriously, there's future income and lots of it. There's no roof to what these things can hit. I mean, shoot, the companies are still producing, for the most part any ways...

I have some perpectual zero coupon bonds you might be interested in. Call me.

 

[Njja]

You know, all kidding aside, the money generated by older retired sets going through the roof has actually sustained a large part of the hobby as it stands at this very moment.

Much of that money was directly poured right into the hobby again. Dare I say that Figarti is likely bathing in money generated by appreciated retired K&C sets as is K&C itself.

When something like that can happen, I think thats a wonderful thing.

If it didn't happen one has to wonder what wouldn't be produced right now. Just sayin'.

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A proven fact, if anyone looked around! We have one collector that

clearly stated he was reducing his position in King & Country and buying

Figarti starting with the LST.

And good for him, since your collection is personal, and so is what you decide

to do with it.

 

[Njja]

No, seriously, there's future income and lots of it. There's no roof to what these things can hit. I mean, shoot, the companies are still producing, for the most part any ways...

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Forgive them Gid.....they know not what they say!

America was forged on people earning money, why has that suddenly become

a sin?

No smart man was ever hurt by being careful with his money.

I supose its a lesson you learn with age.

 

[Rutledge]

You know, all kidding aside, the money generated by older retired sets going through the roof has actually sustained a large part of the hobby as it stands at this very moment.

Much of that money was directly poured right into the hobby again. Dare I say that Figarti is likely bathing in money generated by appreciated retired K&C sets as is K&C itself.

When something like that can happen, I think thats a wonderful thing.

If it didn't happen one has to wonder what wouldn't be produced right now. Just sayin'.

I dont know if I fully follow all your logic there. Esp if we assume the hobby is a limited environment. That is, there are only so many dollars going around, and retired pieces do not increase the total dollars. Therefore retired pieces that garner more dollars just divert purchases away from newer/other pieces. While the recipient of those extra dollars can use them to buy other pieces, the new purchasers buying power has been drawn down by the same amount. So, net-net, its zero sum. (Also assumes the profit taker doesnt use his proceeds to take the wife out to dinner!)

Now, some might argue that rising prices brings in buyers who might not normally have partaken. The new buyers could be pure speculators, or they may be part specualtors and part collectors. Whichever, one could argue their entry raises the total number of dollars chasing the toy soldier supply.

In favor of future higher prices is a thinly traded market which makes price discovery difficult; the fact that copycatting is not easy; and over time supply should naturally reduce with sets being damaged/destroyed/lost.

Keeping in mind that when/if the merry go round stops and speculators decide to get off, that can result in rapid downward price adjustments

Certainly a robust market is better for the entire industry. Its just healthier if the demand is truly "organic" and not driven by predators taking advantage of collectors through over-buying/hoarding, supply/demand manipulation and other lamentable practices.

 

[Iron Brigade]

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A proven fact, if anyone looked around! We have one collector that

clearly stated he was reducing his position in King & Country and buying

Figarti starting with the LST.

And good for him, since your collection is personal, and so is what you decide

to do with it.

Dear "Njja":

I for another have sold many retired K&C sets since 2004 via eBay to update my collection and dioramas for the more realistic looking post 2003 to date newer K&C figures. It was nice to often (but not always) get large profits on the retired K&C sets to be used to pay for the new K&C sets.

Regards, "Iron Brigade"