My take on this subject...and the specific poll posted here...is just a bit different. Clearly, two things need to be considered...the methodology of the poll itself, and the presumption (on which the poll is based) to be either confirmed or disproved. I'm a bit concerned about each.
Taking the latter first, I want to suggest that the presumption is wrong...or at least misstated. Every conversation I've read, heard, or been a part of has suggested that the toy soldier hobby is PREDOMINANTLY an activity of 'baby boomers'. Not octagenarians, or septagenarians...but those guys born between 1946 and approximately 1970 or so. That would mean, if accurate, it is a hobby dominated by those Between sixty years of age, and those older than 35, with the larger number being from the front end (older) of the range. A general rule of thumb has been oft referred to as the time during which Louis Marx was producing playsets...though of course that would be irrelevant to the large number on this board who are metal collectors. Nonetheless, if one uses the baby boomer standard as the assumption, the view of the poll may be rather different.
And the dismay of so many collectors, worried about the hobby dying out, is that there are VERY FEW folks under 25 participating. Without as many coming into the activity as are leaving it through death, it means big trouble.
As to methodology...there are so many articles and evaluations around the NET about forum 'polls' that no more need be mentioned here. They are amusing, not much else. However, within a particular poll, it is a good thing to examine the methodology, as Shannon did in a very general way. This poll has drawn responses from a tiny fraction of the forum membership, and the number of members, while impressive, is the tiniest part of the toy soldier community.
That said, even using these numbers, and examining the breakout of the percentages, a tiny 10% of the total is under thirty. Given that that equates to SEVEN voters, not much to be garnered there, except that the numbers almost exactly correspond to the baby boomer generation. If manufacturers and dealers had to survive on the patronage of those younger than boomer-age, it would be pretty grim.
If the forum moderator(s) have a breakout of the numbers of registered members by age, or could easily put that together, my large bet is that the numbers would be skewed ever MORE towards higher age.
The gauge I use -- at least the best one I can think of taken by itelf, and apart from any other -- is a quick glance around at OTSN. This is the most effectively done between Wednesday night and Saturday night. Check out the attendees those days. (or if attendance is not possible, then check out each year's photo write up in back PFPC issues. If one can see any kind of optimistic hobby future from the demographic the eye sees there, I'd enjoy reading about it.
I'd very much like to be wrong about this, and I'd sure find it enjoyable to see all the others in the hobby who see the greying of the activity be wrong as well. Since I've put my $$$$ where my hopes are, and have an honest to gosh brick and mortar retail toy soldier store in Eastern Iowa (with no online presence, no website and no eBay selling), I'm counting on a continuation of customer interest for at least a couple more decades. Based on the guys who come into the shop, that is rather a rose-colored glasses optimism, but then what else would I do with my money. (o;
By the way and for the record, I turn 58 in October, began collecting when I was five, never gave up the hobby, and have been selling since 1981, 'legally -- sales tax permit, business registration -- since 1991, and opened the shop up in August of 2001 (talk about unfortunate timing.)
Terry in Iowa
Phalanx Toy Soldiers