At the beginning of the war the North was at the disadvantage in a few areas.
First - Jefferson Davis was a man of some substantial previous military service. His time as Secretary of War had been well spent sewing the seeds for a Southern Army. The 2nd Cavalry Regiment for example was a whose who of future Southern stars. Also, Jefferson and his successor had seen to it that large quantities of arms be placed in Southern arsenals.
Second - The first call for volunteers (the majority of the troops at 1st Bull Run) were of the 3 month variety, essentially useless. When Bull Run rolled around many of them were soon closing in on the end of their enlistments and were not all to eager to fight.
While it wasnt a foregone conclusion, at the very least the first few months would go the South's way. Lee being the commander only would have made him the one to get fired, not McDowell.
Harris
Excellent synopsis to Vick's question-although only supposition I also believe Lee would have lost First Bull Run if he had been the Union commander based on your evidential analysis and the proven fact that Lincoln would have panicked exactly as he did after the battle and swiftly replaced his offending general which in this scenario would have been Lee.
The communion story is well known and just another addition along with many others that perpetuated the Lee legend following the surrender. He was offered many positions by Northern and Southern entrepreneurs wanting to cash in on Lee's reputation but the old general would have nothing to do with any of them. Instead he accepted the post of superintendent of the tiny Washington College in Lexington Va which had been practically destroyed by Federal artillery. His quiet modesty, his rejection of riches and sincerity of purpose when taking on this role all added to the legend reflected in this quote he made on the first day of his tenure.
"I have a self imposed task which I must accomplish. I have led the young men of the South into battle and have seen them die on the field. I shall devote my remaining energies to training young men in becoming good Americans"
When he first appeared riding Traveller on the streets of Lexington he was mobbed by townsfolk who cheered him with raucous rebel yells. This so disturbed the general that he turned back abruptly and disappeared into the home of a friend. He was determined that he would not lend himself to spontaneous, partisan Confederate rallies while the town was under martial law. He would not seek to revive the Confederacy, nor permit himself to be idolized. Consequently, and apart from his regular church attendances he was hardly seen in public during the next five years as he concentrated on rebuilding the college and adding to it's curriculum which included (of course) engineering.
In the spring of 1870 the Southern people were given one last opportunity to express their devotion to their Confederate hero-and to reveal the depths of their growing pride in the Lost Cause. Lee left Lexington for his only postwar tour accompanied by his daughter Agnes initially to visit the graves of his daughter Annie buried in NC and his father Light Horse Harry Lee in Georgia. But the tour continued onto Florida and everywhere the train travelled throngs of people gathered to pay their respects. But with only one exception Lee declined to speak to those who gathered, some standing silently others waving and cheering as his train halted at the numerous stations along the journey, he said to his daughter Agnes
"Why should they care to see me I am only a poor old Confederate soldier?"
Lee was utterly bemused and failed to understand the emotions of those who strained for a glimpse of his old worn face. But at a stop in Charleston SC on his way home he was unable to deny the massive crowds who gathered, led by patriotic delegations, fire companies, military units and bands. The train was unable move forward due to the thousands of people now lining and blocking the track chanting "General Lee" "General Lee". A worried conductor approached the general who then tried to get his daughter to respond for him, but the excited crowd would not hear of it. Lee finally responded with a few brief words and thank you's, pleading illness, retired back to his carriage. He was exhausted by the time he reached Richmond where he was measured for a statue by the very talented Virginian sculptor Edward Valentine who told the general that he would have to visit Lexington to complete the commission, Lee replied
"Young man you had best make that visit at once"
Lee died two months later.
Reb