The favorites this weekend are Houston -3, Giants -3, Steelers -8.5 and Saints -10.5.
Steelers game is easy and although Lions are a good team with a very good QB, they screwed themselves losing to GB because they could have beaten NY but they're not beating the Saints.
I guess you have to go with NY but they did beat two 500 teams the last two weeks to get here. Not sold on Falcons either so go with the favorite.
Also go with the Texans. Bengals turn will be next year as they will have some good draft picks this year.
I'm scared, because I find myself agreeing with all of Brad's picks!{eek3}
I am 100% certain that short of a legitimate miracle, the Steelers will beat up Denver in what will be Tebow's last ever start. I see it being about 27-3, but with the Steelers' defense it could easily be a shut out, unless the Steelers' offense turns the ball over. I expect the Broncos to fall behind, forcing Tebow to try to throw the ball, with the same kind of 4 interception result he got when he tried to throw on a much weaker Bills defense two weeks ago. Tebow will also get the snot knocked out of him by Harrison and Polumalu when he tries to run the option. It would not surprise me at all to see Tebow on the bench either for injury or ineffectiveness in the 4th quarter.
I am also about 85% confident that the Saints will run away and hide from the Lions. The Lions average 8 penalties per game (2nd most in the NFL behind the Raiders), and can neither run the ball nor stop the run. The Saints beat them 31-17 a few weeks ago, and the keys to that game were 11 stupid penalties committed by the Lions, including 3 personal fouls. Leopards don't change their spots (if you'll pardon the big cat pun), so I expect the Lions to shoot themselves in the foot again, and the Saints offense is just too good to keep up with at home if you don't play perfect football.
I am not nearly as confident about the Giants (maybe 60%), but it is being played outside, the temperature will be between 32 and 45 degrees, and the Meadowlands is always windy. For an Atlanta team that is 8-0 at home in its dome, but 2-6 on the road, and which has not beat a winning team outside all season, I expect the weather conditions to be the trump card which throws a close game in favor of the Giants. However, if the Falcons focused on running the ball, and then throwing play action passes on running downs, which could slow down the only effective part of the Giants' defense, the pass rush, or the Giants receivers go back to dropping or tipping passes, and turning the ball over, the Falcons could easily win.
I am least confident about Houston over Cincinnati (like 51%). Houston has been decimated by injuries, and are down to their third string QB Yates (possibly their fourth string QB the recently signed Jake Delhomme, historically a disaster). However, they have a tremendous defense (one of the 3 good ones in the playoffs), a tremendous running game, and last week they got back their best receiver, who has been out most of the season. Last week, in a game that meant absolutely nothing to the Texans, they took a 9-7 Titans team to the wire in a game the Titans had to have to have a shot at the playoffs, scoring a touchdown that would normally have tied the score, but then decided to go for 2 to avoid overtime, and botched the snap. They also beat Houston earlier in the season in one of Yates' first starts. These factors, plus home field advantage, lead me to pick Houston, but if the Red Rifle has a good game, or DelHomme gets the start, the Bengals could easily win.
as goes my O's, but alas football is upon us
