Corona virus (2 Viewers)

[mikemiller1955]

Texas...so far...has been very low in reported deaths...
and has been very low in deaths since the onset of the virus...
yesterday there were only 9 deaths in Texas...
there has been a total of only 1,369 people...
not trying to be flippant...that's a lot of people...but very low on a state comparative basis...
a large percentage of that has been credited to retirement centers and people that were incarcerated...

Texas is also very low in testing...
tests per 1 million capita is only 27,000 people...
that is in the lower 20% of US states on testing per capita...
not impressive...
in fact...
only NY and California have administered more tests...
but still the tests per capita is one of the lowest in the US...

Texas is the second most populated state in the USA...
California 40 million
Texas 29 million
Florida 21 million
NY 19 million
the average state in the US has 6.3 million people...

Texas is the second largest state in size in the USA...
only Alaska is bigger...
as Texas is so big...the population in Texas is spread out...
not all jammed together like sardines in some other state's metropolis cities...
which I think is a huge reason why we have had so few deaths/cases for the large population...

if you look at deaths per capita...
Texas is in the lowest 20% of US states...
that is a good number...

I live in a tourist town...
Galveston Island...
it's 30 minutes from Houston Texas...
it's a major destination attraction for their large population...
summer is here...
and Abbott opened the beaches 3 weeks ago...
the Island has been packed on the weekends with the good weather...

I feel like Texas is due for an outbreak in the near future with all these people coming to town...
I hope I'm wrong...
but it just makes sense that there will be more people infected...
the people that take advantage of our beaches...
seem like the type of people that are not concerned...
no masks...no gloves...no social distancing...
I feel like we are gonna get punished for this...

as state are mostly open now...
I think we will see a negative impact on all these stats...

all these stat can be verified here...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[marco55]

There is going to be spikes until this thing goes away or they find a vaccine.Everyone seems to forget that the country closed not to find a cure but so our medical systems wouldn't be overrun.As far as deaths go every one is a tragedy as all deaths are but the numbers are small compared to the overall total of positives.It's easy to complain about the protesters but if you had no money coming in you would be out there too.As far as a national plan I think it's been made very clear that every area is different.We can't all live like NYC because that one area is in bad shape.
Mark

 

[mikemiller1955]

It's easy to complain about the protesters but if you had no money coming in you would be out there too.
Mark

that is true...if I couldn't afford to stay home...and needed to go back to work to feed my children...I would be raising hell too!

 

[marco55]

I've been lucky as my company stayed open.I know that people think everyone is getting unemployment benefits but a lot aren't eligible.I see where they broke up a Nigerian group who were getting benefits in different areas.Parasites! They are worse than the virus.
Mark

 

[ivanmoe]

Texas...so far...has been very low in reported deaths...
and has been very low in deaths since the onset of the virus...
yesterday there were only 9 deaths in Texas...
there has been a total of only 1,369 people...
not trying to be flippant...that's a lot of people...but very low on a state comparative basis...
a large percentage of that has been credited to retirement centers and people that were incarcerated...

Texas is also very low in testing...
tests per 1 million capita is only 27,000 people...
that is in the lower 20% of US states on testing per capita...
not impressive...
in fact...
only NY and California have administered more tests...
but still the tests per capita is one of the lowest in the US...

Texas is the second most populated state in the USA...
California 40 million
Texas 29 million
Florida 21 million
NY 19 million
the average state in the US has 6.3 million people...

Texas is the second largest state in size in the USA...
only Alaska is bigger...
as Texas is so big...the population in Texas is spread out...
not all jammed together like sardines in some other state's metropolis cities...
which I think is a huge reason why we have had so few deaths/cases for the large population...

if you look at deaths per capita...
Texas is in the lowest 20% of US states...
that is a good number...

I live in a tourist town...
Galveston Island...
it's 30 minutes from Houston Texas...
it's a major destination attraction for their large population...
summer is here...
and Abbott opened the beaches 3 weeks ago...
the Island has been packed on the weekends with the good weather...

I feel like Texas is due for an outbreak in the near future with all these people coming to town...
I hope I'm wrong...
but it just makes sense that there will be more people infected...
the people that take advantage of our beaches...
seem like the type of people that are not concerned...
no masks...no gloves...no social distancing...
I feel like we are gonna get punished for this...

as state are mostly open now...
I think we will see a negative impact on all these stats...

all these stat can be verified here...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Mike,

Don't want to get carried away with this Tx-convo, but I downloaded a graph of what's going on here from a statistical standpoint:



The bar-graph suggests that we'll see a lot of daily ups and downs, but the situation appears manageable from a health-system standpoint (always a concern of mine).

Still very concerned about late-fall in Texas, however.

-Moe

 

[mikemiller1955]

that's interesting Moe...would like to see a dip down soon...

 

[tdubel]

Tom here is why I disagree with you on both matters.

Sure hospitalization rates and death rates are important factors for planning your response. But testing results are just as important if not more so because when you see a spike in positive tests you will without a doubt see a spike in death and hospitalizations within a short time.

I believe in states rights but in this case a national response is essential for controlling this pandemic. We are a very mobile society so unless you want to wall in states and require testing to get in you are putting those in the less affected states in jeopardy. One state, region or community has limited virus cases so they open restaurants, bars, movie theaters, shopping malls, stadiums, etc...So what happens when an adjoining state or community closes down because they have a high number of cases, Simple, people in the infected states will undoubtedly go to the open states and communities to do
their shopping and entertainment.....then BINGO you now have the spread of the virus in an area that used to be safe.

This virus is highly contagious, spreads rapidly and is now proven to be deadly to all demographics. So unless we are willing to quarantine an area and enforce travel bans only a national agenda will work. New York State is opening in the upstate area and you can bet that New York City people will be
visiting those areas just like they did to Long Island and the Hamptons.

I wish there was a simpler answer, hopefully this new vaccine will come sooner than later.

Rich

Data would suggest otherwise. MD - we increased testing, saw spike in positives, yet we do not have the same spike in hospital/death. I am not arguing with you, just pointing out the facts that I have seen. I do have a problem with the data since the beginning, but on this point, I guess I am believing what I am seeing due to my State reopening.

As far as a National Response, again, not arguing, but it is a Constitutional Question that is not going to be answered anytime soon. Trump can't change it and neither for example can Cuomo. If Trump declared a National State of Emergency and declared all 50 States as a Disaster area, he would have complete unification of all parties against him. If he doesn't do that..............guess what..................he has complete unification of all parties basically against him (where we are today). No win situation that became 100% political from day one and the flames are further fanned daily on your nightly news of choice.

End of day, this is going to have to play out because Americans as a whole are not going to wait for a vaccine and this is true whether you live in NYC or in Cheyenne Wyoming. Where it becomes apolitical is when the average American pocketbook takes over. It is a tough statement, yes, but factual. I am not really opining one way or another, sure I have personal feelings, but in truth, this post is what my observations are based on facts. As I have said, we can all have wants, viewpoints, etc, but in this case the facts are going to play out as they are. I don't see that changing.

TD

 

[nysoldiers]

There is going to be spikes until this thing goes away or they find a vaccine.Everyone seems to forget that the country closed not to find a cure but so our medical systems wouldn't be overrun.As far as deaths go every one is a tragedy as all deaths are but the numbers are small compared to the overall total of positives.It's easy to complain about the protesters but if you had no money coming in you would be out there too.As far as a national plan I think it's been made very clear that every area is different.We can't all live like NYC because that one area is in bad shape.
Mark

Mark, I agree that the NYC situation as well as some other large cities is extreme. Its much easier to spread the virus on packed subways and buses and on crowded shopping streets. So I don't say that nationally we need extreme quarantine regulations. However if we open up too widely and too fast
it will encourage migration from lockdown areas and will spread the disease to those less affected areas. The true example was here on Long Island where we had an influx of City people trying to escape the virus and restrictions. Long Island and especially the Hamptons saw an exponential spike in cases.
There are no easy answers and I agree that we need to get back to work at some level but is it essential to open beaches, bars and salons?

 

[nysoldiers]

Rich

Data would suggest otherwise. MD - we increased testing, saw spike in positives, yet we do not have the same spike in hospital/death. I am not arguing with you, just pointing out the facts that I have seen. I do have a problem with the data since the beginning, but on this point, I guess I am believing what I am seeing due to my State reopening.

As far as a National Response, again, not arguing, but it is a Constitutional Question that is not going to be answered anytime soon. Trump can't change it and neither for example can Cuomo. If Trump declared a National State of Emergency and declared all 50 States as a Disaster area, he would have complete unification of all parties against him. If he doesn't do that..............guess what..................he has complete unification of all parties basically against him (where we are today). No win situation that became 100% political from day one and the flames are further fanned daily on your nightly news of choice.

End of day, this is going to have to play out because Americans as a whole are not going to wait for a vaccine and this is true whether you live in NYC or in Cheyenne Wyoming. Where it becomes apolitical is when the average American pocketbook takes over. It is a tough statement, yes, but factual. I am not really opining one way or another, sure I have personal feelings, but in truth, this post is what my observations are based on facts. As I have said, we can all have wants, viewpoints, etc, but in this case the facts are going to play out as they are. I don't see that changing.

TD

I respect your opinions and appreciate your observations, time will tell. I'll say one thing that if we see significant spikes in the more open areas and a second wave a national plan will be imposed and the vast majority will accept it.
For myself I rely on science, not politicians or pundits.

 

[tdubel]

I respect your opinions and appreciate your observations, time will tell. I'll say one thing that if we see significant spikes in the more open areas and a second wave a national plan will be imposed and the vast majority will accept it.
For myself I rely on science, not politicians or pundits.

Rich, we are a lot of alike, just come at it from different tracks. That said, I would tend to agree with what you just posted except for one thing: second wave a national plan will be imposed and the vast majority will accept it. In today's time, this would be Trump doing it and unfortunately with the polarized atmosphere that has been created over the last 8 plus years, I think we would see a second Civil War (maybe not necessarily with guns perse) but an all out war it would be solely because of the hatred.

This is an opinion but I fear a true one. Rationality has left the building just like Elvis!
TD

 

[jazzeum]

Rich, we are a lot of alike, just come at it from different tracks. That said, I would tend to agree with what you just posted except for one thing: second wave a national plan will be imposed and the vast majority will accept it. In today's time, this would be Trump doing it and unfortunately with the polarized atmosphere that has been created over the last 8 plus years, I think we would see a second Civil War (maybe not necessarily with guns perse) but an all out war it would be solely because of the hatred.

This is an opinion but I fear a true one. Rationality has left the building just like Elvis!
TD

It’s the guns part that worries me. This country has had an escalating war of words for many years, going back to the late 80s, fought out in elections, court fights, newspapers and now social media. At some point, it may jump to the next step.

 

[marco55]

2nd Wave or not we have to open.36 million losing jobs in a month and a half is a recipe for depression which will affect us all and it will only get worse.I don't see the majority of people accepting a lockdown again especially seeing how some government officials have acted.
Mark

 

[Combat]

2nd Wave or not we have to open.36 million losing jobs in a month and a half is a recipe for depression which will affect us all and it will only get worse.I don't see the majority of people accepting a lockdown again especially seeing how some government officials have acted.
Mark

Whether for good or ill remains to be seen, but I think folks are starting to vote with their feet to paraphrase Lenin. Even in those states controlled by democrats they are starting to realize that their authority to lockdown businesses has a limit. They are starting to "open" even though the virus is still around and there is no vaccine. They are not going to arrest or send in the national guard to require their constituents to stay home. In PA, local government officials have started to defy the governor and open with or without his permission. When all is said and done here, the very worst part of this saga are the pundits and media types who appear to be hoping for the worst. I don't believe they are evil and actually want people to die but they do appear to be fine if that happens and it can be used to promote their political agenda. At the same time, those who are carrying guns to these rallies appear to be complete nut jobs with some type of anti-government conspiracy agenda. That is completely unnecessary, potentially dangerous, and just plays into the media narrative that everyone who opposes the shutdown is some type of uneducated hillbilly lunatic.

 

[Louis Badolato]

I am going to make a general comment on the data that is being thrown around - Cases will spike if there is an increase in testing, it is mathematics. SO, for those of you in Texas, I would suggest you watch a couple of key variables instead of the headlines of spiking. Hospitalizations as well as Deaths. You can have a spike in cases due to testing, if hospital and death tolls do not spike, then it is ok if you have a spike in positive tests.

Numbers produce headlines, but the true state of facts is in the detail.

We have an office in Southlake and I have a number of relatives in Texas. They are reporting the Government did a pretty good job there.

Regarding National Plan. There is a little thing in our Constitution called State's Rights, hell I believe a pretty heated disagreement took place in 1861 over that fact................You can have a National Response Plan but unless you declare the entire Country a FEMA disaster area, then the President or Congress cannot dictate to the States unilaterally. Long story short, not happening. I have said this before and I will say it again, this Virus may be the same Virus, but its geographic coverage is very different in how it affected regions, cities and areas. All you have to do is look at high population in geographically confined areas - that is where your case spikes and your death toll predominantly is.

TD

Tom,

As an Appellate attorney, I must respectfully disagree with your assessment of states's rights. Before 1932 or so, you would be correct, but, this little thing called "the switch in time that saved nine," upended states rights. Basically, the Supreme Court of the United States, which had been striking down all of the "New Deal" laws meant to get us out of the Great Depression by interpreting the term "interstate commerce" strictly and upholding states rights, had to broadly interpret the Interstate Commerce Clause in order to avoid having the Court packed by FDR. The swing justice, who had been voting along state's rights lines, switched his position to save the Supreme Court from becoming politicized. Since that time, the Interstate Commerce Clause has been interpreted so broadly that no FEMA emergency is required for a national response plan, only a reasonable demonstration that an issue effects people crossing state lines. States rights are now basically limited to the "reserved powers." The powers not "reserved" to the States or "enumerated" (i.e. set forth in the Constitution as being Federal powers) have been subsumed by the Federal government under the Interstate Commerce Clause. Its the exact opposite of how the constitution was meant to be interpreted (where all powers not enumerated or reserved were supposed to fall under State not Federal control), but makes sense now, because we all consider our ourselves first and foremost United States citizens, not New Yorkers or Virginians as the framers of the constitution primarily considered themselves. Under presently established jurisprudence, a strong president, with the support of congress, can absolutely set up a national pandemic plan, which the States would be obligated by the Supremacy Clause (Federal Law takes precedent over State law) to abide by.

 

[joesgis]

So what I'm hearing from these posts is that California and Massachusetts have governors that did a good job, Texas and New York maybe not so much. I love the Jaws Mayor analogy for Texas and especially Florida, it is spot on. What I take from this is we need to look at the plans/actions/reactions of the California and Massachusetts governments in formulating a comprehensive nationwide plan for the next pandemic. Stay safe everybody!:salute::

I don't know......
Gov Newsom locked down CA only 3 days before NY was locked down, but the difference between the number of cases & deaths between the two is staggering. I don't think those 3 days made all the difference. I think it's density related with LA being so sprawling vs NYC being so packed in and not so much the product of a good call by the CA governor. Among other potentially consequential variables is the aspect that there are two known strains of the virus which were at least initially being called "S" and "L" types. More data needs to be collected to determine impactual differences because there are conflicting reports regarding virulence levels and required hospitalizations between the two viral variants.

Joe

 

[Louis Badolato]

Joe, as I stated, I was not sure whether to believe the article I read of not. Your point about how spread out California cities are is well taken, and provides another reason why the article's conclusions are questionable. I still don't know what to believe.

 

[tdubel]

Tom,

As an Appellate attorney, I must respectfully disagree with your assessment of states's rights. Before 1932 or so, you would be correct, but, this little thing called "the switch in time that saved nine," upended states rights. Basically, the Supreme Court of the United States, which had been striking down all of the "New Deal" laws meant to get us out of the Great Depression by interpreting the term "interstate commerce" strictly and upholding states rights, had to broadly interpret the Interstate Commerce Clause in order to avoid having the Court packed by FDR. The swing justice, who had been voting along state's rights lines, switched his position to save the Supreme Court from becoming politicized. Since that time, the Interstate Commerce Clause has been interpreted so broadly that no FEMA emergency is required for a national response plan, only a reasonable demonstration that an issue effects people crossing state lines. States rights are now basically limited to the "reserved powers." The powers not "reserved" to the States or "enumerated" (i.e. set forth in the Constitution as being Federal powers) have been subsumed by the Federal government under the Interstate Commerce Clause. Its the exact opposite of how the constitution was meant to be interpreted (where all powers not enumerated or reserved were supposed to fall under State not Federal control), but makes sense now, because we all consider our ourselves first and foremost United States citizens, not New Yorkers or Virginians as the framers of the constitution primarily considered themselves. Under presently established jurisprudence, a strong president, with the support of congress, can absolutely set up a national pandemic plan, which the States would be obligated by the Supremacy Clause (Federal Law takes precedent over State law) to abide by.

Thanks Louis, I learned something new and that makes a lot of sense and quite frankly, I think I actually read it before at some point! That said, the key to it actually working are a Federal Government working together...............................whaddaythink in today's world? regardless of whether the Prez is Trump or Obama..........................

Also, for practicality sakes, I don't see Texas, Florida and start naming a lot of midwest States wanting to work together on this. Again, not necessarily my thoughts, but I just look at it practically.

That said, thanks for the post.
TD

 

[Louis Badolato]

Thanks Louis, I learned something new and that makes a lot of sense and quite frankly, I think I actually read it before at some point! That said, the key to it actually working are a Federal Government working together...............................whaddaythink in today's world? regardless of whether the Prez is Trump or Obama..........................

Also, for practicality sakes, I don't see Texas, Florida and start naming a lot of midwest States wanting to work together on this. Again, not necessarily my thoughts, but I just look at it practically.

That said, thanks for the post.
TD

Tom,

It is sad to say that I completely agree that our government and our electorate are as divided now as we were during the Civil War. In one of my posts I mentioned my feeling that we have become so polarized that we are, in effect, living through a "cold-civil war." You made the same point in one of your posts by mentioning "a civil war (maybe without guns)." I scratch my head sometimes about how much American politics have changed in my life time. As recently as the 1980's, Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill, while polar opposites on the political spectrum, treated each other with respect and friendship. Today, it would appear that politicians have absolutely no respect or courtesy towards anyone who disagrees with their politics, and this is reflected by the electorate. If we don't find away to live with each other, we are going to end up in a civil war for real.

 

[joesgis]

Joe, as I stated, I was not sure whether to believe the article I read of not. Your point about how spread out California cities are is well taken, and provides another reason why the article's conclusions are questionable. I still don't know what to believe.

Louis,

I know what you mean. It's hard to know the truth about anything these days. It seems more and more like everyone has their own truths, and this social construct sometimes infringes upon scientific realms. Interpretations of statistics has always been somewhat subjective (especially implications/dubious correlations drawn from small sample sizes and/or studies with non-experimental designs), but striving for validity and reliability in research seems to be more challenging than ever. We just have to keep digging in this case.

Joe

 

[Louis Badolato]

Louis,

I know what you mean. It's hard to know the truth about anything these days. It seems more and more like everyone has their own truths, and this social construct sometimes infringes upon scientific realms. Interpretations of statistics has always been somewhat subjective (especially implications/dubious correlations drawn from small sample sizes and/or studies with non-experimental designs), but striving for validity and reliability in research seems to be more challenging than ever. We just have to keep digging in this case.

Joe

Exactly! I agree with every word of your post 100%.