Looking at Sunday's game, strictly by the numbers, the game appears to favor the Giants. I thought the Giants had a chance against GB because the Packers' D was terrible. The Pats' D is just as bad. Even if you shut down one of the three Giant receivers, the other two succeed. The Giants D could be too much for the Pats O line. Even if the Giants front line is contained, Gronkowski is not 100%. That's a big problem. Notwithstanding, the Pats will score. Will the Giants score more?
Giants 9-7 record is deceiving. Forget the regular season. In their playoff run, the Giants have looked good. They got hot at the right time and that's all that counts. If the Pats fall behind as they seemed to do at times this year, it could get ugly fast.
Alternatively, I just can't see Brady having two bad games in a row. Also, don't discount revenge as a factor. Moreover, Brady and Bellichek need this game to cement their reputation. On top of that I don't think the Pats are getting any respect and the Giants are the fashionable pick. Don't discount that as motivation either.
Who wins? I have no idea.
Yoou are scaring me, Brad, because I am in complete agreement with everything you said. To me this game is too close to call, and like the game earlier this season, may come down to who has the ball last. You can never discount a team with Bellichick has the head coach, Tom Brady as the QB, Wes Welker as the slot receiver, and the a monster in the middle like Wilfork on defense.
On the other hand, as good as Light and Mankins have been at keeping Brady's jersey clean against everyone else, the Giants have consistently hit him, and sacked him 9 times in the last three games they played.
The Giants have a coach in Coughlin who cut his teeth next to Bellichick as a Giants assistant under Parcells, and knows his defense as well as anyone not in a Patriots Jersey. Slight edge to the Patriots at head coach, but unlikely that Coughlin will be unprepared for Bellichick's favorite playoff schemes, the "bullseye" defense (where the Pats defenders target the other teams best RB/receiver - for example the Rams Marshall Falk - and take him out of the game) or the "Big Five" where the Giants under Bellichick or the Pat's play 5 defensive backs all outside the box in coverage and dare the other team to run (a la super bowl 25 against the Bills).
Right now, this season, with these weapons Eli Manning can score with Brady, so to me, while Brady is clearly the better QB overall, in this game, with these weapons, and these defenses, the QB position is a wash.
To me, Cruz and Welker are a wash in the slot. Both will get their catches and play a big role.
I see Gronkowski as being healthy enough to play, but just hampered enough that while he will make catches, I don't see him breaking any big plays.
To me the whole game comes down to which offensive line permits their offense to run a bit, and protects their quarterback. Unlike most commentators, I see a big problem in Wilfork. Frankly, if I were the Giants, I would replace the second tight end (Bear Pascoe) or fullback (Henry Hynoski) in the backfield with their back up, but most effective, Guard, Mitch Petrus, and have him double Wilfork on every play.
The other thing that has been bothering me is the Giants defenders mouthing off. I like my teams to do their talking with their play on the field, and I hate rattling the other teams cage, especially when the other team is led by one of the top 5 QB's of all time, who already has a really good reason to want revenge on the Giants, who spoiled his otherwise perfect season. There are holes in the Giants secondary nearly as big as the holes in the Patriots secondary, and if Brady has enough time, he will pick the Giants apart.
This game is going to be close, and may be a shootout. Any (even slight) advantage in turnovers will decide this very close game. The game is just too close to pick, so I am just going to go into this game like I did in 2007: my team in the underdog, but has a chance to win. If they lose they already did way more than I expected this season (I had them missing the playoffs at 7-9), if they win this joins 2007 as one of the two most unexpected and pleasant championships in my lifetime.