I am cynical of all government reporting both ways. Like job reports? They are complete and utter bs that are revised months later. I feel like all of these reports are. I do think where you are seeing results is (to your point) the slowdown of crossings. That is (to me) very key in this exercise. Catching who is here is a lot harder in itself and is being hampered further by certain States and politicians. All of this said, I really don't believe the Biden number at all. Every, and I say this with complete confidence, report ever produced by the Biden administration was manipulated. I don't want to call them outright lies, but I do believe they were manipulated and interpreted to a talking point, not to the raw data or facts.
All of this is an opinion, but I do feel it is based on my own interpretation of facts. This guy is far from perfect, but light years ahead of where we were and Rome was not built in a day. You just have to hope that progress is/will be made. If we had stayed on the course we were on, we would have been bankrupt and beholden to another country within the year. I look at the highlights - Foreign Policy is much stronger and that carries a lot of weight. Crossings are down, again, lot of long term weight, Financials will be better but there will be short term pain, etc.
TD