Corona virus (5 Viewers)

[Combat]

I'm hopeful that in a couple of weeks this will subside. The economy will not take long to bounce back once there is some light at the end of the tunnel. It's been a brutal couple of weeks though. I do feel sorry for anyone who has to wait this out for a paycheck. One thing that might be helpful is more specific and useful data on the spread of the disease. There doesn't seem to be any basis to determine how things are trending. Are they getting better or worse? No way to tell. Uncertainty is worse than bad news.

 

[Warrior]

I'm hopeful that in a couple of weeks this will subside. The economy will not take long to bounce back once there is some light at the end of the tunnel. It's been a brutal couple of weeks though. I do feel sorry for anyone who has to wait this out for a paycheck. One thing that might be helpful is more specific and useful data on the spread of the disease. There doesn't seem to be any basis to determine how things are trending. Are they getting better or worse? No way to tell. Uncertainty is worse than bad news.

I am hoping and praying to the man upstairs that in two weeks, we get SOME SORT of positive news; ANYTHING.

I'd even settle for "The number of confirmed cases has gone up, but not greatly, we see it flattening out in "X" weeks and there is a hope."

Hope is the Mother of all men.

Trying to remain positive, but it's been brutal so far, just incredible how fast this thing ramped up; a week ago today, I made a decision to pass on the HMGS show in Lancaster PA, then it blew up that night and it's been insane the past week or so...…………..

 

[Warrior]

Afternoon,

YOU GOT PAPER TOWELS??? {eek3} Did you have to trade away a kidney?

ONE … :rolleyes2: … well the FIRST Vaccine for COVID-19 seems to be underway and good so far with the volunteers. Still, a while away for general use.
TWO .. If you can believe the &%$#% Chinese government (ha, ha, ha) then new virus case rate is way down.
THREE .. The gas prices are way down.
FOUR … the air quality has improved since the shutdown of many polluting industries.

Still, a sucky way to achieve those goals … :redface2:

Yup, different states and each state has to do what is best .. as they see it, I guess.

However, I would be surprised that there isn't more restriction that (maybe) you don't see. For example total restrictions to nursing homes, child daycare centers and such. But as you said, each state makes its own guidelines.

With Mass showing 223 cases and Maine with 3 [these are confirmed numbers and not presumptive] I rather go with the tough restrictions as it seems to be conforming to the CDC requests to "FLATTEN THE CURVE" and most of all working. Still it is difficult, at best, to say what will worksfor Mainers, will work for Massachusetts and what will work for New Yorkers and so forth.

I see that the Kansas governor announced that schools are now canceled for the entire remaining school year. That was brought up and rejected by the Maine education board, so once again who is right?

STAY SAFE ONE AND ALL!

--- LaRRy

As amazing as this concept is to all the hording lunatics out there (this past weekend, the scene that played out here at my three local supermarkets shattered my opinion of mankind), stores got restocks this week, plenty of everything to go around, as there should be, I mean if you bought 48 24 packs of toilet paper LAST week, you certainly don't need more this week, so the shelves are stocked.

The problem as I see it in this country is you've got each individual state making up the rules as they go, each one seems to be trying to outdo the next guy, 250 or more gatherings outlawed, then 100, then 50 then 25, how about two people can't stand within 6 feet of the other?

We seem to be sadly lacking in testing ability in this state, which is a concern, the estimates as to how many people have it vary greatly.

What they should do is just cancel the school year, cancel all professional sports, shut it all down, just bag it, no sense in pushing it out three weeks/a month/Memorial day, it ain't happening, just bag it.

I am just in a state of shock at what is going on, it's surreal...………………………….

 

[tdubel]

Taking a few minutes reprieve from speaking with financial advisors and listening to banking conference calls here is my two cents.
First of all I am a "fiscal conservative" and probably more of a social liberal but I won't be political. I have 50 years of investment
experience and business experience. I have always worked for publicly traded companies and co-founded a very large company that
traded on NASDAQ for 28 years. My company was sold to a 30 billion dollar organization and I worked with them for 5 years.
The company I founded had one of the lowest debt to equity ratios in the electronics industry and we used debt intelligently and
strategically. Today I volunteer teach at several graduate business schools and the NYC High School of Economics and Finance.
That said I don't say I am smarter or better than anyone on this forum, I just have different experiences and perceptions.

What I am expressing today is mainly for the US economy but could apply to most industrial countries.
Our government was behind the "eight ball", we should have reacted more decisively weeks ago. Other administrations have made
the same mistakes and often it is due to politics and bureaucracy.
Now we need an immediate and massive response! Some of what has been proposed and enacted by our government is good but not
enough.
We have two major goals: First to stop the spread and then cure this virus and second to prevent our economy from going into a DEPRESSION.
We are already going into a Recession which is bad enough but a Depression will change our way of life for many years to come.
I have listened to a multitude of Economists and business leaders so my ideas are not original but I have taken many strategies and combined them.
1. Pump hundreds of billions into the Health care industry. Use all resources private, government and the military. Get ready for an influx of
critically ill people. Work with the WHO and the international community to develop cohesive strategies and medications.
2. The government must make sure that anyone losing their jobs now will get a monthly stipend until the virus is under control. This includes
unemployment and sick leave but needs to be done immediately. It will cost more than one trillion dollars. NY state has already put a hold
on debt collection for college loans and health care costs. We should also allow laid off workers to take money from their IRAs and 401Ks without
penalties and pay it back whenever.
3. We need to give loans to small businesses at low or no interest rates payable over 5 to 10 years. Large corporations can get loans as well under
the stipulation that they can only be used for operations and employees benefits. No stock buy backs, no bonuses and executive benefits.
After the 2008 fiasco we bailed out certain industries and were paid back for the most part. Some companies may not deserve to be bailed out
but this is a different scenario.
4. At least a trillion dollar stimulus package for infrastructure to put people back to work.

Now I know some will say that spending up to three trillion dollars will dangerously increase our debt and bite us later. That is possible but think about
what a Depression will cost us......no comparison. With interest rates at almost zero our borrowing costs are workable. And lets remember that the
tax cuts already added over a trillion to our federal deficit when it was promised that it wouldn't.
With stringent oversight we can reduce the debt over the next ten years. It will hurt, because spending will be curtailed and taxes will go up.
There are other risks but none compare to a prolonged Depression. The great Depression in the 30's took 10 years and a World War to end it.
Unemployment was over 25% then and it could be worse now if we don't act quickly, Our Treasury Secretary has already warned us it will
probably be 20%!

Not great news but we can beat this with Draconian and strategic measures. This is a time when we must depend on government to oversee the
recovery and our leadership must be honest, focused and non-partisan.

Would love to hear other comments and suggestions.

Rich agree as that is what I am seeing too, it is going to take massive bailouts to save any semblance of the airlines and other related businesses. The Banks are going to have to weather institutional real estate loans as most hotels, office bldgs are going to see a decline in rent payments, thus debt service will not be possible. That is just what it is. I do think any good news on the virus or the combat of the virus will restore activity. As I said, if you believe half of what you hear from China and I can confirm first hand from my own Company, China is opening back up, that is a positive sign. It will be a long recovery but I am hopeful that the quicker "life" will resume, better we are and faster it will come back.

One concern is that China is not cooperative even in the time of crisis. I think part of the recovery we see may be Companies only leaving production in China for that market but moving worldwide markets back to Europe and the US. Especially drug and related pharma companies. That is already happening and it will continue. I think that may be actually a positive outcome of this whole mess. I know I would like to locate a manufacturer into the US, it would be one of the first times in a decade.

TD

 

[tdubel]

whaaaaaaaaaat????

that wasn't Iron Maiden?

You are half right! Yes Iron Maiden in the first sentence. Who is the second???

TD

 

[Louis Badolato]

I have always been down with 666 "The Number of the Beast", so while everyone else is "Run to the Hills" attitude, I will be a "Trooper" and stand my ground. Then again, it may send me "Straight To Hell" and subsequently "Under the Graveyard" but I will hopefully have a lot of that devil green so I won't die an "Ordinary Man"

Trivia since this thread jumped the shark 200 posts ago, gold star to the first post to identify the author's above of quotes...................

TD

Iron Maiden.

 

[jazzeum]

I'm hopeful that in a couple of weeks this will subside. The economy will not take long to bounce back once there is some light at the end of the tunnel. It's been a brutal couple of weeks though. I do feel sorry for anyone who has to wait this out for a paycheck. One thing that might be helpful is more specific and useful data on the spread of the disease. There doesn't seem to be any basis to determine how things are trending. Are they getting better or worse? No way to tell. Uncertainty is worse than bad news.

I wish I could share your optimism but I’m afraid that is wishful thinking. Dr. Fauci said it’s possible the number of cases may crest in 45 days but was unwilling to be definite about it. I’ve been looking at the number of deaths in Italy and there are no significant decreases. In fact there was a significant increase in deaths today. Spain may be leveling off a little but I’m not completely sure about that. What may be taking place over there may hit here soon.

 

[tdubel]

I wish I could share your optimism but I’m afraid that is wishful thinking. Dr. Fauci said it’s possible the number of cases may crest in 45 days but was unwilling to be definite about it. I’ve been looking at the number of deaths in Italy and there are no significant decreases. In fact there was a significant increase in deaths today. Spain may be leveling off a little but I’m not completely sure about that. What may be taking place over there may hit here soon.

Brad,
I am going with the approach that we have done a better job than Italy and with the preventative approach we should be in better shape. Also, while our healthcare system can always use improvement and capacity, it is one of the best in the world, I know I would rather have care here than abroad. So from a positive notion, while it may get worse than it is today in the short term, we will get through this with as little health damage as possible.

TD

 

[nysoldiers]

Rich agree as that is what I am seeing too, it is going to take massive bailouts to save any semblance of the airlines and other related businesses. The Banks are going to have to weather institutional real estate loans as most hotels, office bldgs are going to see a decline in rent payments, thus debt service will not be possible. That is just what it is. I do think any good news on the virus or the combat of the virus will restore activity. As I said, if you believe half of what you hear from China and I can confirm first hand from my own Company, China is opening back up, that is a positive sign. It will be a long recovery but I am hopeful that the quicker "life" will resume, better we are and faster it will come back.

One concern is that China is not cooperative even in the time of crisis. I think part of the recovery we see may be Companies only leaving production in China for that market but moving worldwide markets back to Europe and the US. Especially drug and related pharma companies. That is already happening and it will continue. I think that may be actually a positive outcome of this whole mess. I know I would like to locate a manufacturer into the US, it would be one of the first times in a decade.

TD

I agree Tom....I have dealt with China since the late 70's and Japan and South Korea before that. We gave up too much to China and other countries in terms of high tech products including medical.
When I started in the Electronic component business in late 70 my military customers would only buy components made in America. As we gave away more and more technology they had no choice but to
design in foreign components. I am not saying we can make everything here, free trade is important, but why sensitive and proprietary technologies?
There may be a lot of Americans with the talent and need to earn money painting toy soldiers!

 

[bromhead]

As amazing as this concept is to all the hording lunatics out there (this past weekend, the scene that played out here at my three local supermarkets shattered my opinion of mankind), stores got restocks this week, plenty of everything to go around, as there should be, I mean if you bought 48 24 packs of toilet paper LAST week, you certainly don't need more this week, so the shelves are stocked.

The problem as I see it in this country is you've got each individual state making up the rules as they go, each one seems to be trying to outdo the next guy, 250 or more gatherings outlawed, then 100, then 50 then 25, how about two people can't stand within 6 feet of the other?

We seem to be sadly lacking in testing ability in this state, which is a concern, the estimates as to how many people have it vary greatly.

What they should do is just cancel the school year, cancel all professional sports, shut it all down, just bag it, no sense in pushing it out three weeks/a month/Memorial day, it ain't happening, just bag it.

I am just in a state of shock at what is going on, it's surreal...………………………….

Agreed,,,the big state of shock will be the cancelling of the NFL,,

 

[nysoldiers]

There is some positive news out there. I listened to the CEO of Starbucks this afternoon and have spoken with several former business associates in China recently.
Starbucks has reopened 95% of their stores in China and cases of the virus have gone down. Starbucks has initiated a strong health strategy with basics like constant
cleaning of stores, mandatory hand washing and gloves and most important letting people stay home with pay if they have any symptoms.
China has the advantage in this case of being a totalitarian government. They could shut down regions and build hospitals and isolation facilities without the red tape and
bureaucracy we and other Democratic countries have.
Today President Trump said he is a "wartime President" and he is right! We have to go all out like we did after Pearl Harbor.
A big challenge is getting the younger generations to take this more seriously. We see videos today of thousands of college students on Florida beaches during their spring
break or school closures. I think most of us can remember those days and how we thought we were invincible. Unfortunately they can get seriously ill and certainly spread
the virus. We will need Federal laws so every state is on the same page when it comes to stopping the spread of this virus.

Economically speaking I don't think we will have a "V" shape recovery but any good news on new medicines and vaccines will help stabilize the markets. I don't think we can
avoid a recession but with major government intervention we can shorten the duration. As I have said governments have to go big. We have to make sure our leaders know
that we will not criticize them for doing too much!

 

[King & Country]

\

I agree Tom....I have dealt with China since the late 70's and Japan and South Korea before that. We gave up too much to China and other countries in terms of high tech products including medical.
When I started in the Electronic component business in late 70 my military customers would only buy components made in America. As we gave away more and more technology they had no choice but to
design in foreign components. I am not saying we can make everything here, free trade is important, but why sensitive and proprietary technologies?
There may be a lot of Americans with the talent and need to earn money painting toy soldiers!

HI GUYS,
On that last bit...
About ‘lots of Americans with the talent and need to earn money painting toy soldiers’...
I wouldn’t hold your breath while waiting for that to happen...
Just sayin’...Stay well!
Andy.

 

[jazzeum]

There is some positive news out there. I listened to the CEO of Starbucks this afternoon and have spoken with several former business associates in China recently.
Starbucks has reopened 95% of their stores in China and cases of the virus have gone down. Starbucks has initiated a strong health strategy with basics like constant
cleaning of stores, mandatory hand washing and gloves and most important letting people stay home with pay if they have any symptoms.
China has the advantage in this case of being a totalitarian government. They could shut down regions and build hospitals and isolation facilities without the red tape and
bureaucracy we and other Democratic countries have.
Today President Trump said he is a "wartime President" and he is right! We have to go all out like we did after Pearl Harbor.
A big challenge is getting the younger generations to take this more seriously. We see videos today of thousands of college students on Florida beaches during their spring
break or school closures. I think most of us can remember those days and how we thought we were invincible. Unfortunately they can get seriously ill and certainly spread
the virus. We will need Federal laws so every state is on the same page when it comes to stopping the spread of this virus.

Economically speaking I don't think we will have a "V" shape recovery but any good news on new medicines and vaccines will help stabilize the markets. I don't think we can
avoid a recession but with major government intervention we can shorten the duration. As I have said governments have to go big. We have to make sure our leaders know
that we will not criticize them for doing too much!

I wouldn’t accept what China says at face value. Allegedly, they have no new cases. However, as this article from the Times indicates, experts will need to see at least 14 consecutive cases without new infections for the out break to be considered over. It also remains to be seen whether the virus will re-emerge once daily life starts and travel restrictions are lifted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/...odule=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-160694bb

 

[ivanmoe]

Apparently good news, even if it only indicates a slowing of the virus in certain locales:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

We need more time, particularly considering what has been a testing debacle in the USA.

-Moe

 

[nysoldiers]

\


HI GUYS,
On that last bit...
About ‘lots of Americans with the talent and need to earn money painting toy soldiers’...
I wouldn’t hold your breath while waiting for that to happen...
Just sayin’...Stay well!
Andy.

Well never say never but if you ever want to open a small factory in America I think you could find some good painters.
No one is starting a new toy soldier company or factory here in the near future but you would be welcome. In the mean
time keep up the good work and look forward to new releases!

 

[marco55]

Far from expert on virus but doesn't this look worse. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burde...RMIn7y5aBeowSJ0GC2aW_Fp5S2DpWgTLpH-YzfbCIrzVA
Mark

 

[nysoldiers]

Far from expert on virus but doesn't this look worse. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burde...RMIn7y5aBeowSJ0GC2aW_Fp5S2DpWgTLpH-YzfbCIrzVA
Mark

The simple answer is no.....this new virus spreads faster and is much more deadly. In addition people can have little or no symptoms so they are more likely to spread the infection.
For the more common flu we have anti-viral drugs and medicines to alleviate the symptoms, and of course vaccines. Nothing for the C-virus yet.

 

[marco55]

I don't know about spreading faster.In a 6 month span the flu affected 36-51 million in the US alone.Of course we do have vaccines to combat it In a 4-5 month period a little over 200,000 for Corona. Of course strict procedures was done in China and South Korea to contain it. I wonder how badly it affected North Korea.
Mark

 

[lancer]

I don't know about spreading faster.In a 6 month span the flu affected 36-51 million in the US alone.Of course we do have vaccines to combat it In a 4-5 month period a little over 200,000 for Corona. Of course strict procedures was done in China and South Korea to contain it. I wonder how badly it affected North Korea.
Mark

Apparently North Korea is denying it has a problem with the virus while anonymous sources (according to The Business Insider) say some 200 NK soldiers have died from the virus and some 4000 others are under quarantine. -- Al

 

[jazzeum]

Here’s a useful statistical source:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries