Prices (2 Viewers)

[Combat]

This is where a knowledge of statistics is helpful. Self selecting polls are not reliable indicators for several reasons. Unless you want to go deep into random sampling for normal distribution curves and such, you will just have to trust me on that. :smile2:

Actually if someone goes to the time and trouble to post their opinion, it is likely to reflect a strongly held opinion among likely buyers. That's what you want to know. Not necessarily the opinion of everyone. There could be collectors who make one or two purchases a year. Their opinion is not as relevant - in terms of sales - as the collector who is going to spend thousands. So if you can surmise anything from opinions posted here, it likely reflects those who buy a lot. Regardless, there's no reason to draw the opposite conclusion - that opinions expressed here significantly differ from the larger collector base.

 

[Rutledge]

Actually if someone goes to the time and trouble to post their opinion, it is likely to reflect a strongly held opinion among likely buyers. That's what you want to know. Not necessarily the opinion of everyone. There could be collectors who make one or two purchases a year. Their opinion is not as relevant - in terms of sales - as the collector who is going to spend thousands. So if you can surmise anything from opinions posted here, it likely reflects those who buy a lot. Regardless, there's no reason to draw the opposite conclusion - that opinions expressed here significantly differ from the larger collector base.

You are simply wrong about this. Collectors who "spend thousands" buy one of each, maybe. What does that do for a production run of 1,500?

It works this way. If they choose to do and rely on a poll. A truly random sample of collectors is taken. Based on their answers, one can make inferences about what the broader collector population will do, if the sample size is large enough and deemed reliable, based on statistical projections. Of course there will be some margin of error. However, as Gordon said, the goal is to leave little as possible to chance.

One can always override the data with a 'gut call'. But that is risky.

At the end of the day, opinions mean nothing. Plenty of people have the best intentions and never follow through. Its about results.

The manufacturers own their historical sales data, which likely overwhelms all other. They can look at dealer sales, and estimate what the initial production should be. I would imagine product that sits too long causes problems all up and down the line, and quickly eats away at profits. Thus why its important to estimate as accurately as possible what ACTUAL demand will be, and not rely on a few eager beavers who may or may not represent broader interests.

 

[Phantom Warrior]

I'm more of a Poisson process kind of guy...:wink2:

Is that French for fish? {sm4}

Terry

 

[Peter Reuss]

Wow, Rev Pete with a stats smack down, out of nowhere! :tongue: Who knew?

Guess there is more to running a church than delivering Fire and Brimstones every Sunday - MATH?!?! {eek3}:wink2:

Undergraduate degree in Mathematical Methods for the Social Sciences (and Psychology) from THE Northwestern University {sm4}

Back in the day, I could win a stats smack-off with the best of them!

 

[Vezzolf]

Actually if someone goes to the time and trouble to post their opinion, it is likely to reflect a strongly held opinion among likely buyers

Well Statistics and Mathematical theory aside...Time will tell..and Buyers will decide...that as they say will be the "bottom line":wink2:

 

[Combat]

You are simply wrong about this. Collectors who "spend thousands" buy one of each, maybe. What does that do for a production run of 1,500?

It works this way. If they choose to do and rely on a poll. A truly random sample of collectors is taken. Based on their answers, one can make inferences about what the broader collector population will do, if the sample size is large enough and deemed reliable, based on statistical projections. Of course there will be some margin of error. However, as Gordon said, the goal is to leave little as possible to chance.

One can always override the data with a 'gut call'. But that is risky.

At the end of the day, opinions mean nothing. Plenty of people have the best intentions and never follow through. Its about results.

The manufacturers own their historical sales data, which likely overwhelms all other. They can look at dealer sales, and estimate what the initial production should be. I would imagine product that sits too long causes problems all up and down the line, and quickly eats away at profits. Thus why its important to estimate as accurately as possible what ACTUAL demand will be, and not rely on a few eager beavers who may or may not represent broader interests.

Sales are affected by important variables such as price, marketing and quality. Not just collector interest in a subject matter. So sales data alone is not a strict indicator of interest. For example, the FL Russians seem to be selling well. KC Russians apparently did not. Price a KC T34 at one dollar and you will sell a lot. But it's KC drawing implications from the forum posts (ie that they do not reflect the larger collector base). If you believe these are merely unscientific opinions, then you can't draw any conclusions from them. Including that they differ from the larger base as KC suggests. Particularly since we don't have any polls or data from the larger collector base to compare it with. I do know from years of reading posts here that active posters are likely buyers who spend a lot of money in this hobby. Not a bad demographic.

 

[Vezzolf]

It not only seems like an attempt to soften price increases - it is one. K&C has said as much straight out.

What I really believe, is that you are being unrelentingly negative to drive down K&C resale prices, and buy up the figures cheap for speculative resale next year. {sm3}^&grin

Terry

Terry you're exactly correct.....that's the top secret plan.....A major undercover conspiracy^&grin^&grin{sm4}

 

[Rutledge]

Sales are affected by important variables such as price, marketing and quality. Not just collector interest in a subject matter. So sales data alone is not a strict indicator of interest. For example, the FL Russians seem to be selling well. KC Russians apparently did not. Price a KC T34 at one dollar and you will sell a lot. But it's KC drawing implications from the forum posts (ie that they do not reflect the larger collector base). If you believe these are merely unscientific opinions, then you can't draw any conclusions from them. Including that they differ from the larger base as KC suggests. Particularly since we don't have any polls or data from the larger collector base to compare it with. I do know from years of reading posts here that active posters are likely buyers who spend a lot of money in this hobby. Not a bad demographic.

Assumptions about the sales of FL Russians are meaningless. Without actual data, you can assume anything you like. May have no bearing on reality.

I didnt say that opinions here dont reflect the larger community. What I said was, I didnt know if it reflected them or not. However from a business standpoint, where accuracy is critical, its basically the same thing. A well managed business runs off hard numbers and trying to ensure the best odds -- not hopes, aspirations, assumptions and/or what so-and-so wants to add to their collection. These are all recipes for disaster.

This is a sizable enough hobby now where I doubt a few big spenders are enough to determine much. Sure, KC might make 5 or 10 limited editions planes that they can count on selling out quick. But big production runs without having a very good idea as to what sales will be is dangerous. I would guess K&C may decide what its going to make based on past sales and perhaps some sort of regression analysis/market trends work. Truthfully, I have no idea, though, as does anyone here. However I do know that Gordon suggested it was a very well thought out process, and not at all some back of the napkin guesstimate based on a few avid collectors wants and desires.

 

[Go for Broke]

I read somewhere on this Forum, that Andy of KC reads this Forum at least twice a day. Other TS manufacturers also read this Forum rather consistently based on their response to reader's questions/opinions. There is no doubt in my mind, that the opinion of the members of this Forum are taken seriously by TS companies.

 

[PanzerAce1944]

This forum can provide manufacturers with a usefull tool to help gauge collector interests and possibly reinforce plans for upcoming releases. It is always good to hear from the Neilson's about all of our jounts about in this forum. :rolleyes2:

 

[phantom carver]

Here goes nothing!

I have been reading the forum for months, and now can't stand it I must put my toe into the water.
I'm sure some will get my (bad joke) point and some will be offended. Great way to start
While on a job last week a news story came on the radio. It was about a nurse who was frequenting on line chat rooms and encouraging depressed people, to just go ahead and end it all.
I said to the guy next to me "well everyone needs a hobby". We shared a laugh about the awkward subject and went on with our work.
My point is that it seems like for some complaining about King & Country on the forum has become more of a hobby than the hobby itself.
A couple of points.
Most manufactures have raised there prices.
Gas and oil cost more.
Food cost more.
Education cost more.
I'm making less money than I once did.
My home is worth less than it once was.
The US dollar is worth less.
I think Mr Neilson has a lot of pull it the toy soldier world, but on six out of seven of these points how was he involved?

 

[Rob]

Here goes nothing!

I have been reading the forum for months, and now can't stand it I must put my toe into the water.
I'm sure some will get my (bad joke) point and some will be offended. Great way to start
While on a job last week a news story came on the radio. It was about a nurse who was frequenting on line chat rooms and encouraging depressed people, to just go ahead and end it all.
I said to the guy next to me "well everyone needs a hobby". We shared a laugh about the awkward subject and went on with our work.
My point is that it seems like for some complaining about King & Country on the forum has become more of a hobby than the hobby itself.
A couple of points.
Most manufactures have raised there prices.
Gas and oil cost more.
Food cost more.
Education cost more.
I'm making less money than I once did.
My home is worth less than it once was.
The US dollar is worth less.
I think Mr Neilson has a lot of pull it the toy soldier world, but on six out of seven of these points how was he involved?

Hi and welcome to the forum!. I'm sure your first post will create some reaction ^&grin:wink2:.

You are quite correct, prices are going up everywhere and not just on Toy Soldiers. Of course this is an open forum and everyone has the right to complain and post their views, thats what freedom is about. But as Brad said earlier, in the end it all comes down to the individual collector and we all have to take that final decision, **** or get off the pot as it were. Hard decisions for some ahead I guess, I myself must adjust but won't give up.

Rob

 

[Andanna]

should not the cost go up because the products get better every year? I think, at least from my perspective, pretty much all TS manufacturer's products have improved over the last couple of years.

 

[The Military Workshop]

Phantom Carver,
A very well put first post. Your comment :

"My point is that it seems like for some complaining about King & Country on the forum has become more of a hobby than the hobby itself".

is spot on as there are examples in this thread of those who repeatedly emphasise they no longer collect K&C but still make many posts about the brand. To them posting must be part of the hobby since they clearly do not collect the brand. In some cases part of the logic for not collecting K&C anymore is because there is too much variety !

Welcome to the forum.

Regards
Brett

 

[maddadicus]

Here goes nothing!

I have been reading the forum for months, and now can't stand it I must put my toe into the water.
I'm sure some will get my (bad joke) point and some will be offended. Great way to start
While on a job last week a news story came on the radio. It was about a nurse who was frequenting on line chat rooms and encouraging depressed people, to just go ahead and end it all.
I said to the guy next to me "well everyone needs a hobby". We shared a laugh about the awkward subject and went on with our work.
My point is that it seems like for some complaining about King & Country on the forum has become more of a hobby than the hobby itself.
A couple of points.
Most manufactures have raised there prices.
Gas and oil cost more.
Food cost more.
Education cost more.
I'm making less money than I once did.
My home is worth less than it once was.
The US dollar is worth less.
I think Mr Neilson has a lot of pull it the toy soldier world, but on six out of seven of these points how was he involved?

For a first post, right on. I agree with everything that you say. I have often felt that some of the nonstop whiners about K/C anything are paid or encouraged by K/C competitors to create issues, here. F/L has raised prices with every new issue or range and their collectors near thank the owner for his ( IMO ) overpriced offerings. Yet most of the same K/C complainers are his collectors..Circumstantial evidence ,maybe, but check out those members comments on either forum and their Jeckle and Hyde personnas, might finally convince you...Michael

 

[Mitch]

have to say that it seems everyone or, the usual suspects are taking the post by Phantom carver to mean a very few or, more exact one or two who bring up issues about K&C to have developed a new hobby moaning are IMO incorrect

There are many people worried about pricing quality etc which, far outweighs the usual suspects nonsense and, they feel they have a legitimate point. This is a far cry from moaning for the sake of it you can appreciate a company but still see that things go wrong etc etc.

If some can overlook blatent historical innacuracies, poor painting made up AFV's damage to items across the manufacturing board then fair play to them but, those who wish to speak about all issues.

Whats overlooked is that its the companies who make these issues and, then collectors on a discussion forum who pick them up and converse about them.

I once said to Rob that its not always rah rah there are always in everything faults and issues which many will want to raise. That does not make them enjoy the moaning more than the hobby, or, will this be another mantra of the forum ..if you bring up anything that appears negative your a moaner????

Proabably appeal to a few but, IMO will always give an unatural and false impression of the hobby.
Mitch

 

[Currahee Chris]

I have often felt that some of the nonstop whiners about K/C anything are paid or encouraged by K/C competitors to create issues,

Man, now THIS statement takes the cake!! ^&grin{sm4}{sm4}{sm4}

Open announcement- any, and I mean ANY toy soldier manufacturer out there who wants to pay me to heckle, harrass, etc any of their competitors, feel free to PM me!! I can use an extra subsidy to add to my toy soldier budget.

Man, that is classic!! ^&grin

 

[wayne556517]

For a first post, right on. I agree with everything that you say. I have often felt that some of the nonstop whiners about K/C anything are paid or encouraged by K/C competitors to create issues, here. F/L has raised prices with every new issue or range and their collectors near thank the owner for his ( IMO ) overpriced offerings. Yet most of the same K/C complainers are his collectors..Circumstantial evidence ,maybe, but check out those members comments on either forum and their Jeckle and Hyde personnas, might finally convince you...Michael

I would like to but im not aloud on the FL thread.............{sm3}{sm3}

 

[Mitch]

What issues have these conspirators made up or brought up??? What I have seen on here is discussion about the FW 190 and some issues of accuracy, prices, problems with dealers, price increases deletions broken Flak gun, tail sitting 262 and whether some AFV's are real or made up, off the top of my head which, all caused collectors to make comments which were not all Rah Rah.

we are not really suggesting these were not issues derived from K&C and were somehow manipultaed by an evil consortium of manufacturers stooges???? I would like to see a proper pro's and con's of the 1/30th manufacturers as there are very good points to all and, also some very poor points to all. Lots of things I think could be done better from all manufacturers
Mitch

 

[maddadicus]

What issues have these conspirators made up or brought up??? What I have seen on here is discussion about the FW 190 and some issues of accuracy, prices, problems with dealers, price increases deletions broken Flak gun, tail sitting 262 and whether some AFV's are real or made up, off the top of my head which, all caused collectors to make comments which were not all Rah Rah.

we are not really suggesting these were not issues derived from K&C and were somehow manipultaed by an evil consortium of manufacturers stooges???? I would like to see a proper pro's and con's of the 1/30th manufacturers as there are very good points to all and, also some very poor points to all. Lots of things I think could be done better from all manufacturers
Mitch

Mitch, you are just as capable of doing the member and post searches and you will find a pattern. Maybe this will ring a bell from a member "Absolutely Correct and well said Terry...;We're not talking price increases over 20 years; we're talking almost double in 3-4 years...Inflation has not been been 50% in 3 years...with Tanks and Crew sets pushing $300 most of us will not be purchasing too often....Simply a reality He leads this thread alone with 14 responses, mostly critical of K/C pricing. Yet, he is always over at the F/L altar, knowing full well that they offer only $300.00 vehicles and the highest prices for any figure, just loving everything they offer. Never a negative comment about their price structure. He is constantly beating down K/C over resell value, profiteering, etc. On most anti-K/C threads ( I know that this was not the original intent of the first posting ) any K/C collector can reasonably guess ahead of time, who will chime in against Andy and K/C..This has become noticable, if not laughable..Michael